The detail of the recent YouGov poll is now up with the following breakdown for the Scottish subsample:
Unweighted sample - 226 (not inconsiderable)
SNP - 28%
Labour - 26%
Tory - 22%
Lib Dem - 20 %
So, from the disadvantaged 'Other' category, the SNP still lead the way by 2% which isn't bad going at all.
It looks like the Lib Dems won a mini-bounce from their Conference but, of course, the other 3 parties have theirs ahead of them.
Hopefully a proper Scottish poll will be out in and around the SNP Conference in nearly two weeks' time.
The 91 Year Old DJ
12 minutes ago
16 comments:
The fact that the Tories and Lib Dems are both on 20%+ should demonstrate why you can't read anything into such small sample sizes.
The margin of error based on the weighted sample (176) is about 7% meaning that the poll shows that any of those 4 parties could be leading and any of them could be losing. Utterly meaningless information sadly.
Like you say, hopefully there'll be a full scale Scottish poll to coincide with conference and we can see where things really stand.
Of course some people enjoy these polls and derive meaning from them while others consider them 'utterly meaningless'. I'm in the former camp while you're in the latter. I would like to say 2 things. 1, a margin of error of 7% does not mean SNP are as likely to be on 35% as the 28%, the current breakdown or something reasonably similar is still the most likely picture of the country and 2, most minipolls tie in with the big polls and for good reason. People underestimate their accuracy. But we can disagree on it, of course.
Jeff,
You're right of course that 7% is the maximum margin of error on a standard 95% confidence level. If you allow the confidence level to fall you could say that there's a x% chance that the results are correct to within 3 points, but obviously that increases the chance that the figure is just wrong.
When I say utterly meaningless, I meant in terms of applying the figures to how seats are likely to fall. None of this was meant to question your right to pore over the data that is available and try to glean a rough possible picture, just my frustration that firmer conclusions can't be drawn from it that could in a Scottish poll.
Today's Yougov sample of a new daily tracker poll of only 90 in Scotland has Labour 41 SNP 27 Con 16 LD 9 BNP 3 Green 1 Other 3
so you can get some strange results with small samples. Imagine BNP getting more that the Greens? Don't think so.
Anon,
fair enough, and you clearly know your stuff. I only calculate MPs on 1,000+ polls btw.
And Marcia has totally backed you up there since the 2 polls don't really tally. Not sure what the sample size for Labour's 41 is mind...
Also, I will certainly admit that I find the poll-checking more fun than meaningful.
Clearly I can't read.
90 is a bit small, even for me...
What was the last 1000+ poll in Scotland saying?
There's been a rash of polls recently and I don't know which was the most recent Scottish poll.....
What kind of a fucknugget would declare a love of the Libdems after that love in last week? Is their no limit to the stupidity of the electorate? Perhaps as a control the pollsters should include the All Night Party amongst the choices.
there! God I never get that right. There,their,they're. Is it too late to change a word or two?
I would've thought, if you were going to change a word, it would be fucknugget. But their you go... ;-)
Sorry Jeff. Obnoxio is only two places below your own site in my favourites list. I'm clearly spending too much time with bad boys.
An excellent article by Gerry Hassan that deserves a wider audience
http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/gerry_hassan/scottish_labour_on_independence
electoral calculus on 28/26/20/22 would give the snp less seats than the libs and less than half of those
that labour would get.
so much for the wondrous system we call democracy.
the snp need a 5 to 6 point break above labour to break the inherent flaws in the system, in much the same way that the tories need a 5 to 6 point break to beat labour in england.
Aye redcliffe, but I think the SNP probably have that now. Obviously, what they have when the GE comes around and the entire media is solely focussed on Labour vs. Tory is a different matter.
That's the worry...
Hopefully the party will be able to run the "Labour or us, the tories can't win here, and who's gonna defend you from the Tories" campaign...
After all, for all Labour scream "broken promises, yadda yadda", in 2 & 1/2 years the SNP have done more than Labour in 8, and that's with a major recession!
No worries Anon, it was def a new one on me. I just wondered if it came with fries and a coke ;)
Def a concern that SNP won't make a breakthru unless they hit 30%. Is this the last FPTP GE?
And thanks for the link Marcia. I think Gerry Hassan has a book out next month called the modern SNP. Surely a must read!
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