I was easily lured into the title of Lesley Riddoch's Guardian piece and must admit to being a little dismayed that the article wasn't an analysis of which constituencies could fall SNP in May 2010.
Lesley does analyse Salmond's speech from this afternoon, and analyse it very well as far as I can see, but, since the question of the weekend will be these 20 seats, I thought I'd take the time to see which constituencies the SNP can expect to win (and nick Ms Riddoch's headline while I'm at it).
I know I've done this before, and I know I'll do it again, but practise makes perfect if nothing else...
(7 seats) - The SNP can reasonably expect to maintain the seven seats they currently hold. Banff & Buchan (despite the exiting Salmond), Angus, Dundee East, Perth & North Perthshire, Moray, Western Isles and Glasgow East.
I hadn't previously countenanced the possibility of John Mason holding onto the Glasgow East seat that he won in last year's by-election but the more I see of him on TV and hear how popular he is locally, the more I think he's a shoo-in for another parliamentary term. At least.
Kilmarnock & Loudon - A relatively small swing is required for the SNP to take this seat and it's reasonable to expect it will go the same way as the Holyrood constituency.
Ochil & South Perthshire - With only a 700 majority to overhaul, this the surest of sure gains for the SNP.
East Lothian - With Anne Moffat's support within her own party famously low and now refusing to make public her letter from Sir Thomas Legg. I simply can't see this seat going Labour in 2010. With the SNP winning the constituency in the European elections, Andrew Sharp is in the driving seat to win through.
Livingston - Jim Devine may have escaped having to pay money back after the Legg review but that was only because his shelving crime was not part of the remit. The Labour man's past demeanours have blown this constituency wide open and even if Jim stands as an independent or not, the SNP is favourite to win based on the national swing in the polls.
Edinburgh North & Leith - I've always had a sense that Mark Lazarowicz is running out of steam in this constituency and, despite a strong push from the Lib Dems, the SNP can be confident of taking this seat.
Edinburgh East - The seat of Kenny MacAskill at Holyrood. There is a strong likelihood that the SNP will take this one next year based on the Euro elections.
Gordon - Malcolm Bruce is beginning to feel the heat from the expenses scandal, pointedly refusing to disclose what was in his Legg letter. With Nick Clegg pushing for more investigation into expenses, the Lib Dem MP could be in for an uneasy 6 months. Even without that, this 2-horse race could well go the way of the SNP.
Stirling - An SNP council and a surprise win for Bruce Crawford in May 2007, all of this adds up to an SNP win in 2010 being somewhat less of a surprise.
Falkirk - Eric Joyce does not have his problems to seek with his resignation over Afghanistan, dodgy Newsnight performances and eye-wateringly high expenses costs. Come to think of it, do we know yet what Legg has asked him to pay back? A probable scalp for the Nationalists.
Linlithgow & East Falkirk - Current Labour incumbent Michael Connarty is facing an uphill struggle in the aftermath of the expenses scandal where he made a few headlines, much like his constituency neighbour Major Joyce. The SNP are looking good to win here, again based on the national swing.
East Kilbride - With Adam Ingram stepping down, the door is open for the SNP to take the constituency and is often mentioned in polls of marginals as an SNP gain.
Argyll & Bute - A tough battle this one but with the SNP holding the Holyrood seat and winning the vote at the Euro elections, they should be confident.
Aberdeen North - Based on the national swing and recent polls, the SNP should win by a few thousand votes.
And then any 20+ extras from the following: North Ayrshire & Arran, Glasgow Central, Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Midlothian, Inverclyde, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East and no doubt even more beyond.
So, can the SNP win 20+ seats? Yes, of course it can.
UPDATE - Thanks to Ross in the comments for mentioning my Dundee West omission. Make that 21+
Merkel, the great Eurosceptic
1 minute ago
25 comments:
Dundee West is another that must be on the gain list for the snp, having control of the council and two msps from the city
Paisley & Renfrewshire North might be a bit beyond the SNP bearing in mind the current poor performance of the SNP/Lib Dem led Council.
The SNP can win 20 seats in the next Westminster Election, but local conditions will play a part (like the example above), as will the question of how fragile is the (New) Labour vote. In fact that last criterion is possablt the key to how well the SNP do.
I really wanna tell both you and Salmond to "behave". But I would have said that about the Holyrood election in 2007 and look how that turned out...
Point of order though Mr Breslin. Are these gains based on a hung parliament? Or on a Tory Government? I ask because the difference might be places like Ochil & South Perthshire (strong 3rd) and Stirling (Westminster 2nd) might go Tory rather than Nat.
I reckon there might be a National swing of around 8-9%, which would mean only 3 or 4 seats turning yellow... but there may be a couple of surprises further up that list - and disappointments too.
Also - Aberdeen council's performance may have a large bearing on the SNP's chances there. Same could be said for Edinburgh seats. Don't share your view of Mark Lazarowicz, and I have him down to hold comfortably...
Thanks Ross, now added.
Absolutely agree Allan, local factors will of course play a major part.
Perhaps the trams (which is still a hot topic in Edinburgh) could see the SNP nicking an extra seat in the Capital. I would suggest which one in particular but the Lib Dems wouldn't be happy...
I think also the chosen candidates will make a difference. A total outsider/unknown will not do aswell as a local well-liked councillor, for example.
And I heard Elaine C Smith will be standing somewhere, so that's a constituency in the bag (just joking)
Hopefully once the dust settles with a few more PPCs to be chosen across the parties we'll get a better idea of who can realistically win where.
Malc,
The suggestions are not really based on either a hung parliament or outright majority. Do you think it'll make a difference?
I really don't see the Tories doing too well in Stirling. They have the same candidate as last time (Bob Dalrymple) and he didn't maker a breakthrough in 2005 so why would be now? Particularly as the Tories have not really made the breakthrough north of the border.
Maybe that'll change of course but, for now, I don't see the Tories getting in the SNP's way in many seats, if any.
The point was really, if it was hung parly territory, the SNP are likely to do better (and that is certainly their strategy - though I don't know how much I think its a good strategy).
If its a Tory government with a comfortable (70-80+ majority) then they won't be able to do that without winning a fair few Scottish seats. I reckon Ochil & SP is a big shout for the Tories on that score. Stirling less so.
If (if!) the Tories in Scotland get the vote out, I reckon they could snatch 7 or 8 seats - all the border ones, Aberdeenshire WaK, Edinburgh South (possibly South-West) and a couple of others. They've as much chance of doing so as the SNP have of 20.
Saying that, the only way either is going to happen is on a catastrophic night for Labour - which is not unfeasible, but nor is it overly likely.
Nothing's certain yet it's true. But it's the possibilities that are interesting. Point is, it's not outlandish to suggest the SNP could win 20+ seats (out of only 59 mind) and that's a measure of how far we have travelled.
I would however assert that it IS outlandish to suggest the Tory party could make it into double figures. Indeed they could forseeably win a landslide while only bagging a couple or three of Scottish seats.
Westminster lies in another country.
I know I've done this before, and I know I'll do it again, but practise makes perfect if nothing else.
....
Aye Jeff, just make sure you get it perfect in time for the general election :)
Yip i would go along with most of your analysis but im not to sure about Glasgow East though ??
I might be wrong but did Labour not out poll the SNP in all of the Glasgow constituencies at the Euros ? but i do take heart from what you have said about John Mason though. He has been a breath of fresh air in that part of Glasgow and i think he is underestimated, says me..!!!
I'm delighted about our prospects for Edinburgh North and Leith and i do hope when the general election comes the SNP will had put out flyer's showing the voters that the SNP actually WON in "OUR" seat at the Euros and this should myth-bust the silly Lib Dem mantra that only they can beat Labour!!!
Good analysis though!!!
A thorough analysis, but stats wise I expect maybe 18 seats - I honestly think 20 is pretty unlikely as is more than 3 Conservative seats. I acknowledge however that 18 would be a pretty significant PR success, but I don't see how 18 (or 20) SNP MPs for that matter would exert any significant influence over the now inevitable newly elected Unionist Cameron Conservative majority government. The Lib Dems have spent 90 years arguing that particular logic, yet are no further forward and have rarely influenced anything in Westminster.
Thanks for that analysis Jeff.
I certainly hope you're right. As someone once said, a week is a long time in politics, and someone else said "events, dear boy".
So let's hope that we make the events work for us.
polaris...
I can mind reading about when the SNP sent 11 MPs down to Westminster and how it got the devolution wheels set in motion etc.
With a block of around 18 or 20 SNP MPs in Westminster i think they would have some impact but i think much of the influence is based on a hung parliament which could happen. The Cons are not far enough ahead to call "Game set and match" just yet..
Lets rewind 35 years to October 1974. An election I remember very well. In that election the SNP won 11 seats. Labour polled 36.3% and won 41 seats. SNP polled 30.4%, the Tories polled a respectable 24.7% and 16 seats. Liberals (pre SDP/LD days) won 3 seats by taking 8.3%. THe Tories fell from 2nd to 3rd place in the popular vote but won more seats.
How the seats fall will depend on the share of the votes each party will get. If the SNP outpoll Labour and are 2 to 3% ahead of them then there is a chance that we win quite a few seat. A few percentages the opposite way then it might be harder to win these seats.
If the Tories poll moderately well and we top the poll and Labour lose support in all direction then Labour could lose seats to the Tories in addition to SNP. I am unsure about the LD. They are polling quite a bit lower than 2005 and they could lose seats in all directions too. Their local sandcastles in some places may rebutt the electorate tide but not gain any seats. How many seats will each party get? - who knows. Have a look a week before the election. I do expect a far better night for the SNP than 2005 but there could be freak results all over the place if the Labour vote is depressed.
In Westminster the SNP isn't a party group on its own, but part of the SNP/Plaid group.
With Plaid very likely to increase its part of the group from 3 to 5 and an outside possibility of winning as many as 11 seats, and an even more outlandish possibility of having one MK member joining the happy band, the idea of a hung parliament dependent on the nationalist MPs, is more likely than not.
It is certainly a carrot worth dangling before the electorate in all three countries!
IMO the SNP will NOT win 20 seats (the FTP system will see to that).
But could it still win more votes than any other Party (as in the 2007 Holyrood election).
While not a great achievement in terms of Westminster seats and hung Parliaments, I'm sure AS would be delighted...
I think the tories will do a lot better than people here are expecting. Primarily, because they are coming (seats wise at least) from such a low point.
Definite possible gains are
Berwickshire
Dumfries & Galloway
Renfrewshire East
Edinburgh South (though big 3 way fight)
Stirling
On the Nat front
I would add Glenrothes to the list
But remove places like East Lothian, Glasgow East and East Kilbride.
They may be close in a by-election scenario, will in a general election should revert/stay to type.
I can see somewhere between about 13 and the 21 for NATS. 21 would require a very, very good night for the nats, ie at least a 5 point lead over labour.
You need to think of seats like
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Dunbartonshire West
Ayshire N & Arran
Dunfermline and West Fife (funny seat this, lib dem by-election win in 2006, will they hold on? Who takes it is a good year for the SNP)
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (another funny seat, if a bad year for the Libs and good for the Nats)
As I say, these seats require a good night for the Nats and bad nights for others. Equal in the polls with Labout does not equate to many pick ups for the Nats (though a number of seats heading towards a majority <2000
Jeff
Re your comment about Elaine C Smith, she should stand for the SNP.
At present Labour have all the comedians, its time we had a real one.
Re the general election the one thing that is certain is that there are very few "safe" Labour seats left in Scotland. You only have to look at the reaction to defending a 10000 majority in the by-election in Glasgow.
The big question for Labour at the next general election is, do they have the resources, activists on the ground to get their vote out?
At Glenrothes, and I would guess Glasgow Labour had to bus activists in from England as they were so thin on the ground up here. All these activists will be need in their local constituencies to try and limit the danage they are likely to suffer down south.
We live in interesting times. Bring it on as they say.
AMW - the SNP beat Labour in Glasgow North and Glasgow South at the Euros. Everywhere else Labour won. Which means that, unless he has a very strong personal vote (which he may do), John Mason is going to find it quite a struggle to be returned. It's bizarre for Jeff to say he's a "shoo-in".
I have voted SNP all my life and would love to see this happen. I just wish i had lived in areas where my SNP vote counted. I lived in Shetland( Jim Wallace), Cupar(Ming Campbell) and am now staying in Brigeton, Glasgow (Mohammed Sarwar)
Takhisis1
Your vote is never wasted. I have voted SNP all my life even in Council elections in Fife where the SNP did not have any chance of winning. I never felt that my vote was wasted so keep plugging away.
Now I have SNP sharing power, but leading Fife Council. SNP in Government in Holyrood. And now hopefully to become the biggest party vote wise at the next general election.
What will it say about democracy in Scotland if the SNP have the largest number of votes yet only half the seats that Labour have. It may at last trigger a proper debate about the democracy or otherwise of the first past the post system.
Yes, your vote is never wasted. We will all be voting SNP as usual despite being in Son of Manse territory. Want him and his English rose emblem party out of Scotland completely.
"I would however assert that it IS outlandish to suggest the Tory party could make it into double figures. Indeed they could forseeably win a landslide while only bagging a couple or three of Scottish seats.
Westminster lies in another country."
No, Westminster is where some really vital decisions are made which impact on everyone throughout the UK, especially in a recession. So Westminster doesn't lie in another country, it decides who will govern the UK. And think on, the biggest electoral turnout isn't local or Holyrood elections, its the GE which gets more voters to participate.
A good article in the Herald this week past pointed out the perils of the Nationalists playing the hung parliament card. Past experience shows it seems to just make the Labour vote return to them in the belief it is "close". It also gives Labour the opportunity to use the "a vote for the SNP is a vote for me" (Major) leaflets again, but with Camerons face on them.
I wouldnt relish that to be honest.
Inverclyde? Paisley and Renfrewshire North? You're talking about areas with around 11,000 majorities and no history of SNP support; and yet a complete write-off of, say, the Tories unseating the SNP's small majority in Angus.
I appreciate that it was something of a 'what if?' post, but let me put it this way: if your hypothetical comes anywhere near true, I will not only eat my hat, but eat my entire wardrobe too.
LC
You have to open your mind a bit to what the result could be and what this does to specific seats.
Back in 2005 (a very bad year for the SNP), Labour got 39.5%, the NATS only got 17.7%, if we think the parties are going to be near enough equal (which is what polls are saying at the moment, I personally think around 30% each might happen, these seats will come into play. There should still be labour majorities (going on an even swing), as even in this situation (ie votes equal), the NATS only get around 11 or 12 seats, with another 6 or 7 in a very marginal place.
For the nats to get 20 seats, they need to top labour by at least 3-4 % odd. At this stage, these seats come seriously into play.
It all comes down to where you think the state of the parties will be. A NAT lead over a percent or two and you may want start looking at recipes for wardrobes.
As for the Tories taking seats of the NATS, you must be joking this time. The nats were so low last time that to lose seats would require something unimaginable to happen.
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