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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Lib Dems to consider backing independence referendum

Despite the amount of news that gets crammed into the 24 hour cycle, the 'breaking news' and the propensity with which a Government or party is said to be 'in crisis', I would imagine that there is relatively little in the newspapers that truly makes people sit up and go 'Woah, I didn't see that coming'.

Well, I had that enjoyable experience today when I saw that the Lib Dems are holding an emergency summit* to establish whether they will or will not back the SNP's Referendum Bill next year. Ross Finnie will lead the review which will canvass opinion right down to member level during a special closed-door session at their Scottish conference on 30th of October.
(*ok, it might just be 'an official review')

However, given that I never really expected an independence referendum to take place in 2010, I am not really getting my hopes up that the Scottish public will get to settle this question next year.

Also, there was a timely reminder today that the Lib Dems are not always as they seem with their Glasgow North East candidate making the ludicrous claim that she wants to see trams scrapped in Edinburgh to pay for GARL in Glasgow. Local candidates pandering to local voters to the detriment of the national party approach is surely a shabby way to conduct themselves.

If the Lib Dems are trying to win support from the pro-independence camp for the 2011 election by merely considering supporting the SNP while still ultimately opposing a referendum then the half-way approach just won't work and they'll fall between two stools.

Nor can the Lib Dems get away with promising support in the next term. They have the opportunity to back a plebiscite now, the recession will be out of the way and I can't imagine there's many pro-independence supporters who will back the Lib Dems over the SNP to make real their Nationalist dreams. If it's a good idea in three years then it's a good idea next year.

A further concern is that this is just a clever way for party leader Tavish Scott to slap down the "young thrusting energetic candidates" who are "desperate to het their faces on television". Once he can say he has heard out the other options then Tavish can rule them out, which is perhaps what he is planning on doing all along so vociferously is the man opposed to the idea of an independent Scotland.

But despite the above concerns, I am holding the Lib Dems in a higher regard tonight. On face value the party is letting go of the more centralist approach it has adopted recently and just throwing the policy open to the membership.

Personally, I think it's a no-brainer for them to go with the referendum option next year. It puts Labour and the Tories well and truly on the backfoot, it confirms the democratics credentials of the party and it gives them a stronger sense of identity which they desperately need. And if it is a multi-option referendum then there is little doubt that their preferred option of more powers will be the ultimate winner.

But with the SNP Conference kicking off a week from today, Salmond could not have been given a better warm-up act than this - knowing that by the end of this very month his independence dreams could be a giant step forward, if the Lib Dems commit to backing the SNP.

Now that would be 'breaking news' that would make more people than just me sit up and take notice...

13 comments:

Andrew BOD said...

Jeff

There is a gap or vacuum to be filled in Scotland, and if the Lib Dems understood and acted on it, they would be a much stronger party.

Successive polls suggest that Independence is not what the voters want currently. Scots do not seem ready for full independence quite yet, but they are very comfortable with a governing party shouting loudly for them within the UK. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives can deliver this, and the SNP can only deliver part of it on their own.

There will be a unionist split on Calman soon because Labour will not be in power and the Tories look set to delay. The Lib Dems views on Calman are the most progressive and probably closest to full independence, so they could be repositioning themselves for a coalition role with the SNP after the 2011 election.

Tavish must unshackle himself from Labour in Scotland, and this could breathe new life into the party. Considering a referendum could be a first step.

Cruachan said...

Whatever the reasons or internal Lib Dem politicking that is behind this, it is potentially huge news.
Makes you wonder why this was not announced at the Lib Dem Conference 2 weeks ago.

Scott could have announced it from a position of strength rather than what it appears to be now as a desperate rearguard action against rising tension within his own rank and file membership.

I wonder though whether Scott will seek to confuse the issue with an Iain Gray-like position, as in "not if the Referendum question is "a loaded question"

oldnat said...

Ross Finnie on BBC Scotland about the "review" on the referendum issue. Again a staggering admission. To paraphrase -

"We need this in case one of the other parties has a 'Wendy' moment. We'd need then to know how to respond."

How can any one thinking of voting for a party that can only respond to the decisions of others? That bought into the Calman Commission to make their policy, when theoretically, they have a constitutional policy that they are supposed to believe in?

There is very little Liberal about the Lib-Dems. Essentially they are the Social Democrats that left Labour when Militant were strong. Not surprisingly they are so attuned with socialism-free Labour.

Jeff said...

I happened to see it oldnat and totally agree.

By all means, have a plan for a random 'Bring it On' moment in Appendix D of your overall report (or whatever) but that to be the main reason offered for this review from the man who is conducting it?

A bunch of nonsense.

Stephen Glenn said...

Cruachan the reason this wasn't announced at Federal conference in Bournemouth is that this is an issue for the Scottish party. Also I thin the devolution debate showed the height that some of the feeling was about the stance therefore the next gathering can guage the Scottish members opinion, where more of them will be.

JPJ2 said...

Here is a copy of an e mail that I sent to Tavish Scott on 18th September which was read by someone but to which I never received a reply.

"Dear Tavish,

No doubt your reported comments in the press are somewhat distorted.

However, did you not notice that Labour and the Tories prevaricated for a hundred years or so
before under mega duress eventually providing the Scottish parliament?

My advice to you-which you are perhaps edging towards-is that you would be better placed
as a home rule party tending to support rather than oppose the SNP, rather than being the
third unionist party as you are now.

Please don't bother to take this advice-follow you own path to oblivion, losing about half
your support to the SNP as you go :-)"

JPJ2 said...

In my recent comment I should have made it clear that my e mail to Tavish Scott was in the context of him being reported as expressing irritation about Labour/Tory inaction on the Calman report.

Anonymous said...

The advantage of them supporting an independence referendum with the price of "more powers" on the ballot, is that the Liberals can forget Calman, go forward with the Steel Report, and get what they really want.

Wardog said...

What is also interesting is the man who's leading the consultation, Captain Mannering no less!

Mannering was the only other Lib Dem that gave slavish Tavish a run for his viking loot during their no-brainer leaderhsip contest.

Does this consultation spell the end for Tavish Scott?

And with iain Gray making a complete fool of himself yet again in the chamber yesterday with Salmond calling into question his leadership skills, how many people see Gray as anything more than a caretaker for Jim Murphy, Darling or any other Labour MP not making it to peer status?

And then finally we have it clear as day from the Tories that any chance, if anything at all won't happen until 5 years down the line, they haven't moved on from their resounding 'NO" to devolution.

I can't help feeling another massive step has been taken towards fiscal autonomy / independence this week and the SNP Conference has still got to happen.

Wardog said...

The balance for the Liberal Democrats is whether they take the hit and support a thrid question and if they do so, what is that third questions, might Salmond offer Mannering a part in forming that question as appeasement?

Could it be that the question is actually far beyond Calman and closer to the federalist model outlined in the Steel report and likely to come out of the Lib Dem's revisiting of that currently being undertaken?

Jeff said...

Fair enough Stephen, that's a fairly logical process there.

The question is though - Will you be there and will it be a Twitter-free zone!?

Ok, so that's two questions but still, updates would be nice...

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neil craig said...

Its fairly clear that what happened is that at the UK conference their always say never policy nearly vame apart so they have to have a conference, behind closed door, to see what if anything they really believe & what form of words they can put it in. The LD's worry is that another party is going to have a Wendy moment & that this time it will be them. If, as a party, they actually had any principles they all believed in this would not be a problem. The same problem applies across Scottish politics, as shown also by the left/right split in the SNP.