A winning strategy for the SNP

My main concern going into the 2010 election had always been that the SNP candidates might see their vote squeezed by Labour and the Tories as the 'it's a 2-horse race' mantra, repeatedly battered into the public's psyche oer the next 6 months, hit home.

However, it seems the SNP have possibly pulled a winning srategy out of the bag that will not only see the party muscle between Labour and the Tories but also push way past them both.

A Labour press release (kindly posted up on The Scotsman for us today) once again asserts that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories. As J Arthur Macnumpty points out, there are only 3 out of 59 constituencies where this is directly the case so for that reason alone it's a rather hollow argument.

But there are two further weaknesses with this tired claim.

(1) The Tories are expected to win by more seats than Scotland contributes to Westminster. If the Tories are due to have a 70 seat majority, then a vote for the SNP in one of the 59 constituencies in Scotland is strictly a vote for the SNP, whichever way you want to look at it.

(2) To ask for votes by doing down the main opposition looks terrible. It compounds Labour's chief problem that the public think it has run out of ideas and has little to offer.

So the SNP has countered this attack with a call to the public that a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland.

With the Barnett formula due to be amended, Trident wasting too much money, UK/Scotland's role in Europe, more funding for Renewables required, connection charges to The Grid needing sorted out and concerns about Scottish soldiers' involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, one could argue that Labour, Lib Dem and Tory MPs north of the border would follow their party leader's lead on each subject, to the detriment of Scotland's interests.

Let's be honest, by Summer 2010, each of the top 3 UK parties will have non-Scottish leaders which will probably negatively affect Scotland's fortunes. This is not to mention Cameron as PM and a Tory Government, of course.

A vote for the SNP being a vote for Scotland was no doubt part of the reason the SNP performed so well in the European elections so if the same campaign was mimicked then there's no reason why similar success in Westminster 2010 can't be achieved.

I can see voters looking at the incumbent in many constituencies and thinking they would like to see a fresh face, a move away from the status quo but not necessarily towards the Tories who it seems still have not made the breakthrough north of the border. With an SNP campaign chiming so similarly with the public's mood, they could reap enormous benefit.

If the winning strategy for Holyrood 2007 was 'Alex Salmond for First Minister', could the winning strategy for Westminster 2010 be SNP tactical voting?