Kilmarnock and Loudoun MP and former Defence Secretary Des Browne is to stand down as an MP at the next election.In many ways the mark of a fine Minister is managing to stay out of the headlines rather than create them and I have always had the impression that Des was the former and for all the right reasons. He also seemed to do a first class job of representing his constituents during the whole Diageo fiasco, working constructively with politicians of other parties to fight the workers' corner as best he could.
So, given the above, and putting my SNP hat back on there is no doubt that this is good news for the Nationalists as we move ever closer to the General Election. Labour will have to select a new candidate (a female presumably given the All Women Shortlists) and I reckon it's fair to argue they'll have a harder fight to win votes than the established Des Browne would have faced.
The margin is still fairly large, an 8,703 (19.6%) majority to make up, but this is the SNP's 3rd target seat and the party won it by 4% in the Scottish Parliament elections. Hopefully Salmond's full-throated 'megaphone diplomacy' will help win support. The SNP candidate is George Leslie who actually stood in the constituency back in 1987 finishing 3rd.
Apparently the most notable contest was when George Leslie stood for Glasgow Pollock back in the 1960s; the Labour vote dropped considerably and allowed the Tories to win the seat. A fairly neat analogy to what is happening across the UK at the moment one could say.
And it would be remiss of me not to speculate on the reasons for Des choosing to stand down now and not fight the seat. Lord Browne doesn't sound too bad to me if we are going to keep having Lords in some way shape or form. However, there was a suggestion a while back that Des is looking to have his name at the top of the Lothians list in the 2011 election with a view to becoming an MSP. The man after all lives in Edinburgh South and is only a sprightly 57. A future leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament even?
I guess one could reasonably suggest that the objective of getting into Holyrood would be hindered if Des was to contest Kilmarnock and Loudoun and lose. Noone wants to see the Scottish Parliament as a sloppy-second retirement home for defeated Westminster candidates after all...
9 comments:
My first thought on hearing this was, as you say, good news for the SNP.
I'd also think that it's bad news for two specific people: Kezia Dugdale and Iain Gray.
I don't think it's that bad news for Kezia if Labour keep zipped lists (where the lists have to be -female-male-female-male- etc).
I suppose it might possibly knock Kez off an unlikely top spot but it's not unreasonable to predict Labour will get 2 regional MSPs in 2011 anyway, especially with Margo and Robin Harper stepping down.
As long as Kezia is the top female in the party vote, I reckon she'll be one of the lucky 129 in a couple of year's time.
I think it's way too early to suggest Iain Gray will be feeling much pressure from stories like this too, I have to say.
You've gotta love the d'Hondt system for all this speculation though... ;)
Jeff, I put a whole 10 seconds of thought into my analysis, and I'm not willing to sit here and let you rubbish it with your 'facts' and 'knowledge of the labour list system', OK? ;)
A fine minister?
A man who has presided over inadequate funding for MoD Family Accommodation, a tragic misreading of Armed Forces equipment provision and an all but abandoned veteran support service?
A future leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament even?
Yes your right, the two scenarios do seem to fit well.
as ever jeff. you are too kind
but significant none the less
Haha, sorry Sean. I also shouldn't let my non-partisan excitement of another blogger in the parliament cloud my rampant SNP supporting or people will shout at me again ;)
It's nice to be nice Alan, as my old History teacher used to say. If nothing else it keeps me out of the NOTW ;)
Simon, sounds like you know more of the detail of Browne's tenure as Defence Sec but I always got the impression he was spoken of quite highly by the army etc. And, to be fair, he didn't control how much cash was allocated to Defence.
I was glad to hear this news - I live in Kilmarnock and the general consensus around here is that while Des Browne has never done anything wrong per se, he's not really done anything right either. He's pretty notable by his absence, with the exception of the Diageo campaign.
I am hopeful and optimistic about the significance of this for the SNP. Our SNP-led East Ayrshire Council is growing more popular all the time, and I don't think it's a given that longtime Browne voters will automatically switch to another Labour candidate. The SNP already had a good chance here with Leslie, but this news strengthens their position enormously.
Hi Lisa,
Thanks for the local insight.
I think there's probably a few areas across Scotland in a similar position. I wonder if some constituents will look at Labour MPs who have been in power for decades and think as you do: not done much wrong, but not really done much right either.
And as you say, getting excited about a relative stranger can be difficult. It's why Gavin Strang was persuaded to stay on in Edinburgh East only to finally confirm he didn't want another term.
My own MP would fit that bill I would say too; he's there and harmless enough but I don't sense much drive or ambition coming forth.
By the way, feel free to pass on any local news as it's tricky to hear about what's going on in local areas.
Cheers!
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