The Glasgow North East by-election is all over and let's be honest, it wisnae a 'brammer' as promised. But, on reflection, the sight of Willie Bain MP with 58% of the vote is really not something to be too despondent about.
For a start, Labour ran a dastardly campaign. Fair play to them but they won't be able to pull off avoiding the big issues in a national debate and talking about who was born where constantly.
Furthermore, Gordon Brown was hardly in this election. Bain wisely tried to trumpet the result as a ringing endorsement for the PM but he didn't figure on any of the election leaflets. Brown is still a vote-loser and he will be in voters' minds a lot more come May 2010.
As the commentators put it on the BBC coverage last night, the place of Glasgow North East is so hopeless in some quarters and so lacking in any kind of optimism that they cling to what they know, particularly the older generations. Willie talks of being "proud" of being the MP that takes Labour rule into a 75 year unbroken run. I find that an odd choice of word.
In the General Election, with all 59 constituencies up for grabs, the tactics and message that worked around the red road flats of Springburn will not carry the day in Paisley, well-heeled Edinburgh, the Highlands and many more places. This is not to mention the apparent collapse in the Lib Dem vote which has seen them finish, 4th, 4th and now 6th in the past three Scottish by-elections. There are several seats in Scotland where the SNP are challenging the Lib Dems and these could turn out to be fertile ground.
Labour winning Labour's safest constituency is no cause for concern and I don't see the SNP HQ sharing in Michael Martin's old constituents' paucity of hope.
Salmond vs Trump
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27 comments:
I am more concerned about the BNP vote than anything else. They came within a baw hair of third place. Have we contacted the English disease?
Why is 'proud' an odd choice of word? The man has just been elected as MP for the area he grew up in! Surely if there is one day in his political life he should feel proud it's this one?
Fair point Mav, and I really do think Willie will raise the average of Scottish Labour MPs but I just get the impression the real problems were glossed over in the campaign and there's a risk therefore that the new MP can put his feet up now and think 'job done'. I'd like to think a politician for the poorest constituency in Britain would be breaking Gordon's door down to get a better deal rather than gush with pride.
How damaging do we think it is that Labour have sought to create an east/west coast divide in Scotland by claiming that the SNP have 'rejected' Glasgow over Edinburgh?
Perhaps ironic considering that it was Labour who signed off Edinburgh's trams?
Bain is well within his rights to be proud of being the MP for Glasgow NE. If he was suggesting that he is proud to continue Labour's unbroken run then I feel that it is an odd choice of word. I'm not sure how much Labour have to be proud of over 70 years of Glasgow NE rule. The stats speak for themselves...
It would be interesting to see the demographic of those that voted, Glasgow City Council reported over 6000 registered postal votes, a rise of some 2000 over the last two months which accounts for 30% of votes cast, surely some kind of record in there too.
Equally chilling is the revelation that over 4000 extra voters have been added to the electoral register in the last month, accounting for 25% of those that voted.
I find it astonishing that neither point as referred to within the context of the BBC's coverage following the announcement of the low turnout.
"How damaging do we think it is that Labour have sought to create an east/west coast divide in Scotland by claiming that the SNP have 'rejected' Glasgow over Edinburgh?"
It is very interesting and I suspect that's weakened Ian Gray even further, the truth is however, this constituency was al about misleading slogans and a chip on the shoulder that needed filling.
What's scary is that those that voted for Labour seem to blame the state of this constituency on everyone else other than Labour.
That quite frankly is startling and an indication of the poor state of educational attainment and rational thinking that goes on amongst the elderly who cling to past ideals that were sold down the river years ago.
It's the youngsters that I feel sorry for here, they've obviously been so marginalised that they simply don't have a voice in this constituency.
Willie Bain offered nothing other than "i live with my mum at aged 36'.
In any other constituency that would have DISCOUNTED him from a series campaing but here it was seen as a virtue.
What does the rest of Scotland think of Glasgow NE?
Who would have thought there were 1,013 Nazis in GNE.
I hoped we would have done a bit better but fair play to Labour they ran a good, albeit rather dirty, campaign and got their vote out.
On the plus side I understand the results in Dennistoun were pretty good for the SNP.
That is what I would expect - it is an up and coming area, more people in work and paying taxes and more home-owners or aspiring home-ownners. So that's something to build on.
As regards the Springburn part of the constituency, well what can we say? It's a vicious circle of continuing poverty and deprivation that won't be broken very easily. But it is their choice to vote Labour, no point moaning about it and no point beating ourselves up about it. It is not our responsibility.
Jeff..
Excellent take on last nights events, or should that be this mornings?
I fell asleep last night waiting for the result but when I woke up I thought I was having a nightmare when I looked at the results..
"As the commentators put it on the BBC coverage last night, the place of Glasgow North East is so hopeless in some quarters and so lacking in any kind of optimism that they cling to what they know, particularly the older generations. Willie talks of being "proud" of being the MP that takes Labour rule into a 75 year unbroken run. I find that an odd choice of word."
...
That just about sums the by-election up.
Anyway enjoyed the live chat last night and hopefully we will have some good results to live chat about come the election.
Lib Dems 2%, lol.. :)
Mav..
Why is it Willie Bain keeps making a big issue of being proud about where he comes from? Its as if its a two finger slant to anyone who lives in area with progress.
I grew up in Cramond in Edinburgh and my parents still live there, its a great wee place and not exactly poverty stricken yet I don't ever hear the locals shouting about how proud they are of the area, they don't have too because they have nothing to hide..Get the point?
Scottish Labour ran a very good campaign and we started very badly. All the parties where able to focus there support and we noticed a few newer tricks from Labour. The Unite Union used its virtual phonebank for labour supporting union members to contact Unite members in the constituency for example.
But this focusing of resources was I think possible for Labour only because of the very strong prescence of Labour party members in and around the surrounding areas. This with good financial backing aided there campaign as well as being able to focus there very good strategists against the SNP.
A general election I believe will really be a different kettle of fish as Labour has drastically lost a lot of party members since the glory days for them of 97. This means that they need a longer campaign to be able to get around to deliver and place election materials with the fewer helping hands. Other parties get round this by mail shots delivered by the royal mail but Labour as reported has a disaster for a financial base. They cannot afford a long election or to use finances to pay for leaflet delivery.
The by-election shows what happens when there machine can work. But will it have the time or funds to do this in the general election.
The deeply deeply sad thing about this that we have in fact two Scotlands one is aspirational and one is mired in deprivation.
Folk who feel they must vote for Labour no matter the circumstances of the area.
I really feel sorry for them, as those of us that support Independence know that would improve there quality of life.
Deeply sad, those poor souls.
I am constantly amazed at the rank arrogance of the some of the cyber-nats that seem to have now infested this site, as well as their “bunker”, the Scotsman online.
The, they did not vote for us, so we need to now feel sorry for them, line. i.e.
“Tormod said...
The deeply deeply sad thing about this that we have in fact two Scotlands one is aspirational and one is mired in deprivation.
Folk who feel they must vote for Labour no matter the circumstances of the area.
I really feel sorry for them, as those of us that support Independence know that would improve there quality of life.
Deeply sad, those poor souls.2
I don’t think people in GNE would want you to be feeling sorry them, and it is this sort of attitude which ensures that the SNP will not kick on. Accept that you ran a poor campaign and did not have a message for the people of GNE.
And Jeff, as for the, you did not have a candidate of the personality of Mason argument. You can try and re-write history, but cast your mind back and you will remember that Salmond was virtually never out of Glagow East. In fact at times you could ask who was it that was actually standing, Salmond or Mason? This time, Salmond did not make it a personal campaign about him, (maybe the last 18 months makes him wary about doing this). Salmond hardly campaigned in GNE, and the SNp were massacred. For those saying Labour will struggle because of lack of workers nationwide, I could quite easily counter with the SNP will struggle because they only have one Salmond and in this election (2010) he will be an irrelevance.
Basically, just as Salmond wanted, Glasgow East seems to have given the Scotish Labour Party a good hard message, but that message was that they were over-confident and not particularly effective. The two by-elections since (in Scotland) have been nothing short of momentous. Who could have predicted that the Labour share would go up yesterday? Labour has got that message and it has lead to 2 very good wins.
Lastly, Jeff, I would say Brown is actually a vote winner in Scotland, but a vote loser anywhere else. I think the majority of Scottish labour mp’s and ppc’s would want Brown in place for next year, as it will help them in a time when Labour will get a hard kicking over-all.
And as for PPC races. I would hope that in any half way competitive seat, most parties would have selected months ago, I know Labour have. If the nats have not, they are miles behind the race. People do not like a candidate suddenly turning up in the months before an election. You need to put the work in a year before at least. In fact, most parties should be looking at ppc races for 2011 over the coming months.
Alex your comments cement the problem with Labour in Scotland.
I feel deeply sorry for them because of all the shite they have to deal with.
I feel deeply sorry for them because the area in which they live has massive social problems which have not been adressed by Labour / Tory in several generations.
Labour's campaign don't make me laugh, so then Alex maybe you can answer what Willie Bain and Ian Gray have not namely
A. What budget cuts will take place in the SBG to pay for GARL and the extra prison places?
I grew up in a scheme I know places like this vote LAbour no matter what they say or do.
Aspiration is a dangerous thing for the Labour party isn't it?
Hi Jeff, how about a post on a post 2010 General Election world where the Scottish Mp's are unchanged but the Tories control Westminister?
What does that eman for Calman and fiscal autonomy?
It's interesting to note that Labour are falling back into the Clydeside citadel of Glasgow before the rest of Scotland.
So then it should be interesting at the next GE.
Alex the SNP selected their Westminster candidates in 2007 so no need to worry about that.
I don't feel sorry for people in Glasgow North East. They chose to vote Labour. That's their choice and they take the consequences - as well all do when we decide which party to vote for.
The lesson I think for the SNP is that we need to concentrate our resources in Glasgow on those seats that we either hold or have a chance of winning. That clearly does not include Glasgow North East. There may be seats like that we just have to write off because there is no point wasting time on them. Labour I am sure have written off the SNP held seats (except perhaps Glasgow East where they appear to think they have a chance).
Indy
The cyber-nats comments was not directed at you, and the level response shows this more than anything (somewhat tempted to pose the other comment on the Scotsman and see the response )
And I am in no way worried about the SNP selecting candidates early or late, but expected that they would have selected a while back.
As for the snp targeting GNE. As you know, by-elections are different and major players need to make a show of trying, I would imagine the SNP will do next to noting centrally in GNE next year. They will focus on 10 or so seats they can realistically gain. (Ochil, Dundee West, Kilmarnock, Aberdeen North, Glenrothes (possibly), Linlithgow, Livingston, Cumbernauld, to name a few.
All parties have to concentrate their resources, but this is certainly an area where all British political parties could learn a lot from the Americans. Labour will, unfortunately, continue to support sitting candidates come next year who have very extreme or non-existent chances of winning. I talk mostly about English constituencies of majorities of less than a couple of thousand. Labour need to re-direct their efforts to constituencies of between 4,000 and 6,000 to 7,000 to stand a chance of a hung parliament, they wont, and the consequence will be a lot of Labour MPs losing unnecessarily and a bigger tory majority (though I guess this would please the SNP quite a lot).
The dems or the GOP cut lose from races very quickly from races they can’t win (even incumbent seats), and until parties here take this pragmatic approach, their efforts will never be as effective as they could.
Glasgow east is an interesting one. I think Labour will take it back, but a lot of people don’t. There is also favourable odds on the nats at the moment, with bookies having them in 2nd place.
I am employed by Lloyds (HBOS). Last week we were informed that we are ‘in scope’ for redundancy. On the day of this announcement the HBOS union, Unite, produced no information for its members; those of us represented by Unite had to get our information on this bombshell from the Lloyds staff association. Unite later produced something which looked like a ‘lift’ from the details produced by the Lloyds staff association.
Now I know why, Unite had a bye election to fight. My colleagues and I are facing unemployment while Unite concentrates its energies and resources in the political arena. Its first loyalty is to the labour party with its union members coming a poor second. If you are not a die hard Labour supporter this union does not represent your interests.
The last comment by anonymous was also raised by a caller on morning extra on GMS.
For me, the SNP has to congratulate Labour on an effective campaign, understand the factors behind this surprising result, and put the lessons learned into practice the next time round.
I believe the factors that made the difference were...
1. The local boy made good
2. A portrayal of Glasgow being hard done by - even Alex Ferguson made this point
3. A cold November night in the midst of a recession is not the time to try out a different party - or even to vote!
4. The SNP were hammered by a media commercially entwined with the UK
5. Bain was perceived as a better candidate than Michael Martin, even though they're both Labour - the expenses scandal ironically worked in his favour
6. The SNP would have relied on votes from the Others, Tories and Lib Dems during the last election - this time round those parties took their votes back
7. The SNP are past their mid-point in Government, a much more difficult position than in opposition
8. In terms of personalities, Bain looked more assured than Kerr, spoke with simplistic clarity, and came from education, not media
9. Labour just looked to be up for this fight more than the SNP, mobilising MPs, MSPs, Ministers, a comedian, a football manager and the PM, who I believe does have a positive effect in Scotland, not because he is a great leader, but because he is a Scot who holds the highest political office in the UK. More irony.
I'm sure there are many more factors, but these were the ones that I felt made the biggest difference.
I've seen no mention of the people who turned upto vote at St. Denis's or Ally parade but couldn't because their names had been crossed off as been used as postal votes. STV's show mentioned it early and the police were supposed to be investigating, then nothing.
Has anyone else heard anything?
On those hereditary/genetic voters of labour. I come from the same stock, we still have some in my family and the in-laws. Good news is the majority of us that vote now vote SNP. The long game is perhaps the way to go as how do you combat these intransigent disinterest. I think base is the issue, apart from yer man McAllister is there any other councilers from the region?
I think that while congratulations should go to New labour, this is a heavy loss the SNP have to take on board. They seemed unable to play the New Labour spin at times, and did not spin the GARL decision, for example, particularaly well.
Dissing the voters (as some posters have taken to doing) lowers yourself to Guido levels. Ask yourself why these people continue to vote New Labour, and make more of an effort to explain yourself next time. Alex i think explains this excellently.
Like Tony, i come from the Labour party constituancy, my parents still vote Labour, and just dont rate what the SNP are doing.New labour spin is definately damaging the SNP, and drowining out the inadequacies of the Brown administration. Unless the SNP address their communication problems, they may well struggle to hold on to the seats they currently hold.
Judging by the latest polls, (still a bit out admittedly) there will be no problem with the SNP holding onto the seats they have and gaining some, even if not as many as Salmond has targeted.
However, I absolutely agree that the SNP would do well to look at the US party models of carefully targeting which seats to go after and which elections to concentrate on.
This shows a local candidate in such seats has a head start. Also as many have said, he had the whole labour party machine behind him but it will be very different at a GE.
Indy may well be on the right track though, leave seats like this alone and concentrate on those in which there is a chance of winning.
Unfortunately the SNP campaign never caught the imagination of outsiders and that didn't help. John Mason's campaign was supported by many who travelled hundreds of miles to help.
What worries me most of all is the BNP vote and I place the blame for that firmly at the feet of labour. They should be concerned too.
Much more use of the blogosphere could be made. Wardog did a sterling job but we need to have a plan and to reach a much wider audience. The libdems use the blogosphere well for their promoting/campaigning, why can't independence supporters do likewise?
Just a thought.
I think some of you are missing the point a bit.
What happened is simply that all the parties got their core vote out. But everyone else stayed at home. They simply saw no point in voting. Since Labour have a bigger core vote than the SNP they won the election but given the turnout it cannot be anything other than a hollow victory and in their hearts they probably know that.
The level of distrust of politics and general apathy presents a challenge to the SNP - but it also presents a challenge to the other parties too.
If voting becomes something that only a minority of politically committed people do then we are in trouble.
So we all need to think hard about what we can do to inspire the majority of voters to actually engage in the process because at the moment, if GNE is anything to go by, they really can't be bothered. They have no faith in anyone and think that voting is a waste of time.
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