Glasgow North East - Live Blog

01:55am - Final Result

Labour - 12,231 (58.4%)
SNP - 4,120 (20%)
Tories - 1,075
BNP - 1,013
Tommy Sheridan - 794
Lib Dems - 474
Greens - 332
John Smeaton - 258

Well done Willie Bain. I honestly reckon he'll make a fine MP. (Mind you, he doesn't mention the Prime Minister in his leaflets but mentions him first thing in his speech)

I honestly didn't think I would see margins like that in elections for a long, long time.

But come on, Lib Dems 6th?


G'd night!




00:51am Twitter update

Result is now expected at 1:30am, Labour are believing they have won 57% of the vote.

Given the turnout, that should work out at about 700 votes.


00:45am Turnout

Turnout is officially 33.2%, a record low. Adds to the difficulty in grossing this result up on a national scale.

00:40am Future SNP candidates for Glasgow North East

I don't think I can see David Kerr standing here next time, it's not like he stood in Falkirk after the 2000 by-election.

Grant Thoms and Anne McLaughlin from here on in would be my prediction but would it be guaranteed that Anne would stand for Holyrood? Perhaps Grant standing down as the candidate for Westminster in this by-election is an implicit suggestion that he sees his future as being at Holyrood, if Grant wants to make the move from being a very effective and impressive councillor, of course.

If this is the last by-election until the General Election, then it will be game on for PPC positions for all parties in many constituencies from here on in.

00:22am BNP

Well, they've had wall-to-wall coverage in the newspapers and the media so I guess it will look silly when the newspapers lament the result if the BNP come 3rd this evening.

But again I mention the very realistic chance of a BNP MSP.

Many argued, myself included, that debating the BNP on Question Time was a good idea. I still think it should have been a good idea but I didn't legislate for the incredible coverage they have received ever since.

It's bad news but we shouldn't go on about it. Instead, the Tories coming 4th (or worse) when they are so close to a General Election is incredible. There may be only so many die-hard Tories in the arwa but the party is going to be leading us very soon, you would hope they could convince a few floating voters along the way. Surely David Cameron is more persuasive than Nick Griffin?

00:13pm Jim Murphy

The Scottish Secretary is talking a fair bit of sense on the BBC but I did enjoy this quote:

"that juggernaut has kinda shuddered to a halt"

Jim doesn't sound too sure. And when pushed that his party is in "terrible" straits, he doesn't seem to get it saying that, ok, Gordon could be more 'clubbable' (I'm sure that's what he said, whatever that means) but he is still a heavyweight.

Labour need something else than this one-year old message if they have a chance of staying in Government.

00:01pm - Commentators

Joan McAlpine nails it for me in saying that the SNP should have "risen above" the dialogue that took place over the by-election campaign. Talk about the economy, perhaps even talk about the economic levers that independence would bring.

Joan also perfectly reasonably pointed out that it's strange that in the run-up to the independence bill on November 30th that independence was rarely mentioned, even by the SNP itself.

Also, David Kerr could have talked about giving up his job to run which I reckon would have been a good strategy.

Joan McAlpine was at pains to point out that she isn't an SNP strategist but on this evidence it is she, rather than David Kerr, that should be appointed as the next Special Adviser for the party.

Margo chipped in to say that she believes that the SNP was "too contained" as she saw it in Edinburgh, "that terrible place that is doing down Glasgow". Fine chat, though when she said "I'll just slit my throat now" I swear even the clocks stopped.

23:51pm

I'm trying not to be too down in this liveblog post but silver linings are few and far between. Grossing up the expected result to the General Election won't see many new MPs.

Is this the day that the Nationalist dream of 20 MPs died?

Obviously I hope not but one can't help but think that Labour improving on their share of the vote from 2005 does not bode well for the SNP.

I suspect a proper blog post on this is necessary but how many seats can we expect to change hands down south and how many can we now expect to change hands in Scotland?

It looks like there will be a large discrepancy which is perhaps contributing to Scotland lagging behind the UK on so many measures.

23:42pm

Suggestions are already coming in that one of the reasons that the SNP lost the by-election is because the party's candidate just wasn't very popular. Of course this is one of Labour's safest seats and Labour drew on support from all over the UK. SNP HQ seemed to botch the campaign so it's not all about personality.

But, David Kerr did put himself forward as the candidate and was rebuffed in favour of James Dornan so he was always coming from behind even in his own party. James of course stepped down almost immediately over an issue that I personally think should have been no reason for him pulling out of the race. Being bankrupt is not a crime in one of the poorest constituencies in the country.

So did activists just not stump up for David because there was a personality clash? I have heard (rumoured) accounts of him acting up with members and staff. "Behaving like a tw*t" was one way one put it.

It was always going to be a tough ask whoever stood for the party but did the SNP simply lose out so spectacularly because David Kerr was no John Mason?

23:30pm

Severin Carrell is reporting that the SNP has already conceded defeat to Labour. Labour are expected to win with a very impressive 50%+ of the vote so it seems it's all about 3rd now.

Interestingly, with 50%+ of the vote, had Labour added it as a policy we could've been waking up tomorrow to an independent Springburn...!

23:21pm - Voter fraud!

Huge news from Dennistoun where voter fraud is suggested.

I have been told by someone at the scene that people turned up to the count in Dennistoun to find their names were already scored off the electoral register.

23:15pm - Jim Murphy

Jim has suggested (though not predicted) on BBC that Labour might get over 50% of the vote in the contest. That would be huge, let's be honest, a resounding victory for Labour and a suggestion that the General Election north of the border would see very few seats changing hands.

23:11pm - Nicola Sturgeon

Wow, a remarkable lack of fighting talk from deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Many may remember her checking her phone and giggling as the Glasgow East result came through. Nicola clearly has been receiving updates from the floor and it's not good news for the SNP.

According to Nicola, "Labour will win comfortably".

23:07pm The Lib Dem freefall

It's 6 months or so till the General Election and the Lib Dems don't really have anything to talk to the Scottish public about. Calman could still offer the party an opportunity to grab the electorate's attention but I wouldn't hold my breath.

So how far would the Lib Dems have to fall to get the message that they need a massive change of direction, if they are travelling in any direction at all.

Behind the Greens? Behind the BNP? Behind Smeaton? Behind the Socialists? A 6th place finish might not be out of the question and that would be devastating for Tavish Scott.


23:01pm - Political panel

BBC coverage has started hosted by the crush-inducing Laura Kuenssberg.

We have a panel of MPs and MSPs to discuss the contest.

Hopefully one or two will get quite rattled and spark an argument. I suggest it will be the same old stuff. Labour cheering the victory as if they've just won Olympic Gold, the SNP pointing to their Holyrood popularity, the Tories looking to the General Election and a Tory Government and the Lib Dem wondering how he or she managed to let Tavish Scott convince them to take this gig.

Have I had too many glasses of wine or does Brian Taylor look a bit like Susan Boyle?

10:50pm - Going postal

Absolutely stellar post over at North to Leith on postal voting.

He has the statstics on last minute postal vote claims:

Well I have had it confirmed that in the final days that postal votes could be applied for that there were in fact around 1100 that were applied for. ....of the 1800 total increase in the number of postal votes for this by-election 1100 were made in the dying days and that the overwhelming majority of that 1100 increase can be attributed by applications being handed in by Labour.

I'm not suggesting that rules have been broken but the rules clearly need changing. 'Everyone does it' is no longer a good enough excuse. The unsightly combination of political parties and postal votes has to end.

10:44pm

Interesting statistics for David Kerr. He has contested the by-election that saw the highest turnout in Scotland when he lost to Eric Joyce in 2000 and, after tonight, he will have contested the by-election that sees the lowest turnout in Scotland.

And if David Kerr does lose, will he be hired as a Special Adviser for the Scottish Government? Will that cause controversy in Holyrood? Will David stand in Glasgow NE in the General Election (which he would surely lose)?

There could be more questions than answers after tonight.

10:41pm

From Advanced Media Watch in the comments:

You could be right about the smaller parties but the BNP are saying they are looking good for 2,000 votes, I really do hope that was meant to be 200.

I hope they meant 200 too but, cards on the table, there's a perverse side of me that would enjoy seeing the BNP overhaul the Lib Dems and the Tories. Does that make me a bad person? Hopefully not, but 2,000 votes would bring them very close.

10:38pm

There's a fine, poignant video on Alex Porter's Scotland Unspun blog. A photo montage of the area and a testament to the deprivation in the area that, that, that, ok then, 74 years of Labour rule has delivered.

10:30pm

Brian Taylor has started a liveblog and has mercifully let it be known that a result is expected at around 00:30pm.

Given turnout is so low, a record low infact, an earlier result is to be expected.

Also, per Brian:

Folk here at the SECC, where the count is taking place, are wondering whether it is conceivable that the British National Party could oust the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to take third place.

10:20pm Bain's vote

An interesting suggestion on an interesting forum.

Did Willie Bain vote today?

It has been suggested that he didn't because the 'local' candidate isn't actually local and his name has been seen on the Hammersmith & Fulham electoral register.

Nonsense internet rumours or a story in the making?

10:16pm - Another live-blogger

Will MacNumpty has joined the fray with a by-election roundup.

10:11pm Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC

"if you put a donkey up in a by-election in Glasgow they'd still win"

(I might have truncated that quote)

The BBC political correspondent is at the count in Glasgow, which started 13 minutes ago, but is not predicting an upset. However, Laura did say that a significant swing from Labour would alarm party members and would mean a "very, very, very difficult ride (for Gordon Brown) when it comes to the by-election next year".

(I neither truncated nor expanded that quote, there really were 3 very's. And Laura is right.)

10:04pm BNP vs Tories

Well, this tweet went down rather well so I'll post it up here aswell:

RT @SNPTacticVoting: Isn't it incredible that the Tories are scrapping with the BNP in a by-election just 6 months shy of a GE? #glasgowne

And let's be honest, it is incredible. In many ways it could be the story of the night.

The Conservatives are mere months away from forming the Government of the UK and here they are having their credentials tested in a constituency with some of the highest unemployments statistics, the poorest health standards and the lowest education levels in the country.

The Tories are miles off winning and even finishing ahead of the BNP is by no means assured. It crystallises so many questions from a divided Britain to the need for an independent Scotland.

Are we really to believe that David Cameron can fix the UK's problems and mend 'Broken Britain' if he can't save his deposit in the neediest constituency?

Also, he did visit the streets of Springburn so did anyone see Dave hugging a hoodie? I'm sure there's plenty of them in Glasgow North East.

9:50pm - National Picture

Right, let's do some number crunching.

I am hoping the national share of the vote in the General Election is approximately SNP - 33%, Labour 33%, Tory - 18%, Lib Dem 12%

This would give the SNP a respectable 15 MPs while showing up the regrettable quirks in the electoral process as Labour would win 33.

According to Electoral Calculus, this national share of the vote would see Glasgow North East won by Labour with 46% of the vote to the SNP's 25%.

One can expect the Nationalists to put in a better showing than 46% to 25% thus helping to prove that the SNP are well and truly ahead in the national race.

9:39pm

Oh dear, Tory Bear reverts to type:

"BNP won't do as well as everyone thinks in Glasgow by-election. The SNP will hoover up all the racist nationalist types."


9:19pm

Tweet from Holyrood Patter backing up my suggestion (or me backing up his) that Tories would be 3rd:

"still no word on the main 2, but just heard tories 3rd by 400 votes, smeato, sheridan, bnp and libs in a 4 way scrap for 4th "

(I still miss his blog)

9:01pm - The Battle for Bronze

In many ways the biggest battle in this contest is for third place.

The Tories, Lib Dems, Greens, John Smeaton and the BNP are all battling it out. Remember the Greens came 3rd in the Euros and the Tories came 3rd in Glasgow East and Glenrothes. I don't have to remind anyone that the BNP have had an incredible amount of press recently. If they are ever going to make a breakthrough, they couldn't ask for a better perfect storm than this.

The Lib Dems don't tend to have 5th placed parties pushing against them when they finish 4th but there's any number of parties that could push them down the pecking order. Finishing below the BNP would be a disaster and, well, let's be honest, Eileen Baxendale has been a very forgettable candidate.

The Tories will finish 3rd. As for 4th and beyond? It's anyone's guess....

8:52pm - Daily Racket


Thanks (again) to Sean for letting us know about the Daily Racket publication in the election campaign. See photo below.


But where did it come from?


8:45pm According to RealMcP on his Twitter page:

"Betfair has taken over £2k in bets on GlasgowNE by election in the last hour"

Latest odds at ladbrokes are Labour - 1/10 and SNP - 5/1.

I have to confess I put £10 on Labour at 8/13. Not a bad bet on current evidence...

8:42pm Anne McLaughlin MSP at her Indygal blog wonders if non-political people think people who canvass at 7am in the morning are "very sad". I don't, I think they are the grease that turn the wheels of a successful democracy but I must admit I'm glad I'm on the couch, with a cool glass of wine in a warm flat and not in some counting hall in Springburn!

8:28pm Severin Carrell of Guardian fame is reporting SNP fears that the pensioner vote is solid Labour.

"SNP fear pensioner vote: all true red, sez one. Out early and voting Labour..."

Scottish Government to announce free train travel for all over 65s before May 2010?

8:25pm

In other news, the suggestion that nurses should have degrees is crazy, Gary McKinnon should be working for MI5 by now in a high paid job, the execution of the Washington sniper doesn't move me on thinking capital punishment is just plain wrong, Peter Mandelson reflecting that he hasn't had a new title in a good few weeks now upon receiving Politician of the Year from The Spectator has to be gag of the month and I am currently enjoying rocking out to an awesome blast from the past ---> In the Meantime (while my sweet potato and rosemary roasts in the oven).

Anyway, back to by-election chat with the next snippet.

8:18pm

Note that the result is expected at 2am. I think I might have a coffee.

Also, from Twitter:

AMW: Chuck a fried mars bar or two at the polling stations and watch them come voting.

MekQuarrie: Maybe some free lattes in Dennistoun? #GlasgowNE

Ah, the Glesga banter...

8:01pm - Euro election result

For anyone who cares, the European election result for the constituency in the summer was:

Labour 5,244 41.3 %
SNP 3,177 25.0 %

That's on a 21.5% turnout (all according to wiki!)

(thanks to Sean for the above comment)

Note that the remainder of the results were as follows:

Greens - 822 (6.5%)
UKIP - 618 (4.9%)
Tory - 561 (4.4%)
BNP - 545 (4.3%)
Lib Dem - 533 (4.2%)

7:55pm - What's a good result for the SNP?

It makes sense to look at a few numbers early on to consider what we're getting ourselves into this evening.

In 2005, the GE result for this constituency was:

Michael Martin (Speaker/Labour) - 15,153 (53.3%)
John McLaughlin (SNP) - 5,019 (17.7%)
Doris Kelly (Socialist Labour) - 4,036 (14.2%)
Graham Campbell (Scottish Socialist) - 1,402 (4.9%)
Daniel Houston (Scottish Unionist) - 1,266 (4.5%)
Scott McLean (BNP) - 920 (3.2%)

Note that the Lib Dems and Tories observed the bizarre convention that the Speaker of the House should not be challenged in elections.

Interestingly, if Michael Martin had wanted Springburn to be an indepdendent state he would have had a mandate for such a policy on this issue. Yes, he received over 50% of the vote, and that's not to mention the 4,036 votes that went to Socialist Labour many of which no doubt were meant for the newest Lord in the land.

So what's a good result for the SNP?

Well, turnout will be down markedly on the 45.8% during 2005 although Mike Smithson of Political Betting has put money on turnout staying above 38%. I don't see it. We've had MPs expenses, it's pretty wet and miserable out there and it's not as close a fight as Glenrothes was perceived to be. Furthermore, I believe a lot of Labour voters in Fife were motivated to get out to vote for their local boy Gordon. That won't quite be the same in Glasgow North East.
I'm nominally putting a good result for the SNP down as losing by less than 2,000 votes. In recent posts, some have suggested that I am deliberately dropping down expectations but that's not the case. This is as unreachable a seat as the SNP can possibly consider. John Mason only won Glasgow East because he was a councillor for a quarter of the constituency, Labour had practically zero knowledge of the area and the oppposing candidate Margaret Curran made some unfortunate gaffes.

In Glasgow North East, Willie Bain seems a likeable chap, David Kerr is an outsider and Labour are well briefed on where their support lies.

A win by 2,000 votes is not a great result for Labour, surely.

7:15pm

Here it is then, the evening we've all been waiting for, the Glasgow North East by-election countdown has arrived!

Ok, so it's only most of us that have been impatiently sitting it out until the 12th. Fine then, it's a very small minority while the vast majority of the UK public are blissfully unaware that a new MP will be voted in today but if you have arrived here you are no doubt in the former category so let's go for it.

Notable candidates amongst the thirteen that are standing are Willie Bain (Labour) - election agent for Michael Martin who stepped down almost half a year ago, David Kerr (SNP) - the former BBC man who contested Falkirk West nine years ago, Eileen Baxendale (Lib Dem) - an affable, well-intentioned but error-strewn lady and Ruth Davidson, a Tory that has performed well during the campaign with some effective TV appearances.

Interestingly, the only candidates that have a Wikipedia page are John Smeaton, Tommy Sheridan and Mikey Hughes (of Big Brother fame).

Early reports (from Twitter which will be heavily used as a source this evening) are that the SNP's vote is holding up well and the Guardian are reporting that the party has 200 activists out on the streets knocking doors pushing hard. John Swinney is out there too, working hard aswell, of course.

A brave prediction even went as far as saying that the SNP will win by 300 votes but there was also a prediction of the BNP saving its deposit for the first time in its history.

But there is a long way to go, tv coverage is on at around 11pm and we also have Question Time to contend with. So hopefully a good bit of chat can take place in the comments section with any notable gems getting posted up in the blog itself.

Who knows how the evening will pan out. The SNP may have a famous night which will be filled with twists, turns and drama or we may merely end up navel-gazing if the by-election proves to be a damp squib.

7:45pm

It makes sense to look at a few numbers early on to consider what we're getting ourselves into this evening.

In 2005, the GE result for this constituency was:

Michael Martin (Speaker/Labour) - 15,153 (53.3%)
John McLaughlin (SNP) - 5,019 (17.7%)
Doris Kelly (Socialist Labour) - 4,036 (14.2%)
Graham Campbell (Scottish Socialist) - 1,402 (4.9%)
Daniel Houston (Scottish Unionist) - 1,266 (4.5%)
Scott McLean (BNP) - 920 (3.2%)

Note that the Lib Dems and Tories observed the bizarre convention that the Speaker of the House should not be challenged in elections.

Interestingly, if Michael Martin had wanted Springburn to be an indepdendent state he would have had a mandate for such a policy on this issue. Yes, he received over 50% of the vote, and that's not to mention the 4,036 votes that went to Socialist Labour many of which no doubt were meant for the newest Lord in the land.

So what's a good result for the SNP?

Well, turnout will be down markedly on the 45.8% during 2005 although Mike Smithson of Political Betting has put money on turnout staying above 38%. I don't see it. We've had MPs expenses, it's pretty wet and miserable out there and it's not as close a fight as Glenrothes was perceived to be. Furthermore, I believe a lot of Labour voters in Fife were motivated to get out to vote for their local boy Gordon. That won't quite be the same in Glasgow North East.

I'm nominally putting a good result for the SNP down as losing by less than 2,000 votes. In recent posts, some have suggested that I am deliberately dropping down expectations but that's not the case. This is as unreachable a seat as the SNP can possibly consider. John Mason only won Glasgow East because he was a councillor for a quarter of the constituency, Labour had practically zero knowledge of the area and the oppposing candidate Margaret Curran made some unfortunate gaffes.

In Glasgow North East, Willie Bain seems a likeable chap, David Kerr is an outsider and Labour are well briefed on where their support lies.

A win by 2,000 votes is not a great result for Labour, surely.