A YouGov poll on Scottish voting intentions and independence was released by the Telegraph last night, commissioned (somewhat curiously) by Anthony King of Essex University. The sample size was 1,141.
On the question of independence (and what the question was we do not yet know), the results were as follows.
Yes - 29%
No - 57%
Don't know - 15%
Those are not 'all to play for' figures in my book and Anthony King's analysis that “Alex Salmond increasingly resembles a man trying to drag a heavy vehicle out of a ditch." has some traction. The vigorous advancement of a referendum remains a huge, needless political risk. I still think the SNP should look to 2012 for a plebiscite.
Whether the risk is having the referendum offer opportunisically accepted with the Nationalists subsequently defeated or being perceived to not be governing responsibly during a recession by pushing for a poll in the first place, a second SNP term is not as certain as it once was which one would have thought is the top priority 18 months shy of May 2011.
It should be noted that 45% of people wish to see a referendum in the next few years while an alarmingly high 47% do not “as this would be a distraction from more urgent issues that need tackling”.
I fear that this is a loaded question as surely the "urgent issues" will be taken care of in less than the few years that were mentioned in the first option? Once a poll starts using alarmist language to apparently direct respondents one particular way, a certain integrity is lost.
I wonder what was wrong with the question: "Do you wish to see a referendum on Scottish independence within the next few years?" and leave it as a yes or a no?
Moving on to Westminster voting intentions, the SNP are seemingly on course for a hammering:
Labour - 39%
SNP - 24%
Tory - 18%
Lib Dem - 12%
Are those numbers credible? I fear they are. There was always a sense that the soaring poll figures would be fleeting somehow, the perfect storm of Brown's incompetence, MPs expenses and a startlingly successful lefty SNP Government had blown in for a short while but has now abated.
The lesson is, support is out there and people who have said they would vote SNP will find it easier to do so if they have before.
I still think the SNP's greatest strength is in playing it long. Build a little, consolidate, build a little more and then consolidate a little more. Slow steady progress rather than pushing too soon and going down in a blaze of glory. Or perhaps even just a blaze of gore. The party is leaving itself dangerously vulnerable to wounds that would still be getting licked a decade from now.
Gordon Brown at Number 10 and Alastair Darling at Number 11 means a time for consolidation for the SNP. Of course the Nationalists will get squeezed at the next election but going up against a Scottish PM and a Scottish Chancellor is no easy beat for a party trying to show the benefits of going it alone and the lack of a union dividend.
David Cameron standing in the doorway of Number 10 with Ed Balls or Harriet Harman or John Cruddas or one of the Milibands as Labour leader de-tartanises the Westminster brand.
Against such a backdrop, independence poll ratings can and will creep up, Westminster voting intentions will see a fairer fight and many of the Nationalist arguments will hit home.
May 2010 could go all manner of ways from an historic twenty MPs to a rather lousy seven but the SNP knows that it has the arguments on its side on a whole plethora of issues and can place its confidence in that, whatever the polls or election results bring.
Salmond vs Trump
13 minutes ago
35 comments:
I wouldn't get too down. In the aftermath of Glasgow East, the polls swung towards the SNP before resuming their previous position. The same, or rather the opposite, is probably happening here.
24% is a good result for the SNP in a Westminster election.
'It should be noted that 45% of people wish to see a referendum in the next few years while an alarmingly high 47% do not “as this would be a distraction from more urgent issues that need tackling”.'
Seems that the Labour message (some would say scaremongering) is getting through, then?
There's an interesting article by Jim Sillars in the Holyrood magazine.
http://tiny.cc/vDOzg
I'd agree with him in some ways because I feel the SNP have taken their eyes off the ball and are becoming too comfortable being part of the Scots political establishment.
Sandwiched between the big boys, who are quite happy to let them govern at present because they're doing a good job, is a difficult position but they need to show more passion for their main policy.
"The SNP has also slipped to second place in voting intentions for Holyrood"
Lab 33%
SNP 32%
Con 15%
LD 14%
On peoples desire for a referendum, I have rarely seen a more loaded poll. Maybe it was jointly commissioned by President Karzai,
But you are right - the overall trends aint great BUT the situation remains extremely fluid.
The most frustrating thing for the SNP is that in the short term the way the cards will fall is largely outwith their control, as it is a bit player UK election wise. That dont necessarily mean they wont come out of it well, but all the SNP can really do is hold its nerve hope the card fall the right way and the arithmetic on the labour tory vote split works out for it.
Agree with you fully now is not a good time for a referendum, I just disagree with you on the specific tactics. The SNP should still introduce its referendum Bill on 30Nov and force the unionist parties vote it down. Too late to do anything else and I think the symbolism alone will help in the medium term. So far its the unionists that are all over the palce on the referendum issue, let's not join them
Nah, the Scottish polls in the Telegraph are always a pile of mince and in no way ever reflect the actual situation.
They are orchestrated to shed a bad light on the SNP. It's merely a part of their overall agenda to rubbish everything about Scottish independence and they use polls as part of that.
Honestly, you can write this one off completely.
Look up any poll on Scottish independence done via the Telegraph and you will always find that the yes vote is way, way lower than any other poll you see on the subject.
Indeed, 29% yes is remarkably high for a Telegraph poll. That probably means a real figure of 40% plus.
Look, for example, where last year a Telegraph/yougov poll had yes for independence at 25% (19% in the three option referedum).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/1912478/Support-for-Scottish-independence-slumps.html
For the DT to claim now in their headline that support for independence is down is contradicting their own data which shows that support for independence has gone up +4 from their poll of last year.
But what it really shows us is that anything the DT says on the matter is complete tripe.
I do enjoy their sports pages though.
AWC,
I'm not sure how you can square 'agree with you fully now is not a good time for a referendum' with your preference for the SNP pushing on doggedly for a 2010 poll.
We seem to agree the Nats are in a tricky spot. Don't you think showing Scotland that the party has a reverse gear that it's not afraid to use when necessary might not be a bad thing?
Funny enough Anon, I was planning on doing a check on the Telegraph's reliability at lunchtime. You've saved me the bother!
In light of this, please dilute all comments made by me thus far...
Much like the rest of Scotland, I'll make my mind up about the timing of the referendum after next Monday when the white paper is available for all to study.
The upper echelons of the SNP aren't fools, I suspect a robust, substantial proposal covering everything the status quo, full devolution within the UK and Independence.
As to the pessimistic doom merchants and nay sayers, remember Charles Parnell words from 125 years ago.
No man has a right to say to his country, "Thus far shalt thou go and no further."
We should always remember about Jim Sillars that he won a by-election on the back of a campaign based around independence - but then lost his seat because he failed to connect with voters.
We have to do both. Make the case for independence but also earn the trust of voters on the bread and butter issues.
That's something Jim Sillars has never understood.
"I still think the SNP's greatest strength is in playing it long. Build a little, consolidate"
Look where that strategy is getting us!
No, independence is getting slaughtered and for no good reason.
1) People don't want to take risks in difficult times.
They need to be told that the bankrupt union is the risk. Independence the solution.
2) They need to be told that independence is the urgent issue that can equip the country to deal with the crisis.
3) Brown still has some resonance in Scotland.
Only because he's not getting slaughtered over the economy by the SNP.
When Brown loses the election in London we need a platform already set for taking on London government in referendum and the next Holyrood elections.
The current strategy is wilful neglect. The conditions are ripe for a slaughter of the unionist case and that is being lost. I really can't stress enough how utterly inept this 'strategy' is.
Support for independence has traditionally hovered around the 20-30% mark. Nationalists are dreaming if they imagine there is majority support for it out there. There isn’t. The Telegraph figures are in line with the historical record.
“One fifth of the population in Scotland want complete independence while 30% want a directly elected Scottish assembly with power to raise taxes and control public expenditure, according to an opinion poll carried out by Marplan for special editions tonight of the Panorama and Tonight television programmes on BBC1.” - The Times, November 17, 1975
“The demand is still heard for parliamentary devolution. In the MORI poll, 45% wanted a Scottish assembly with 22% seeking complete independence.” - The Times, September 7, 1982
“46% of voters back devolution and the establishment of a Scottish parliament within the United Kingdom, 30% want independence, and only 21% support the status quo.” - The Times, August 27, 1995
“ Today's opinion polls, which ask how people will vote for the Scottish parliament, put the SNP ahead of Labour. But the polls also tell of support for independence at only 25%.” - Jim Sillars, The Sun, September 26, 2000
“According to a Populus opinion poll for The Times published two weeks ago, 52% of Scots favour the Parliament in Edinburgh having more powers, while only 27% favour outright independence and 6% support the status quo.” - The Times, April 13, 2007
"That's something Jim Sillars has never understood."
Do you know what you're talking about? I worked the Govan constituency when he lost it. He got a massive vote against the national trend but it wasn't enough. I met many of his constituents who asked me to thank Jim for all the help he gave them relating to constituency work!
We're an independence party hoping to get a referendum in. We could not have better conditions to argue for independence. There is an open goal and Salmond and Co have so far sclaffed the ball over the bar.
Jeff, you ask me "I'm not sure how you can square 'agree with you fully now is not a good time for a referendum' with your preference for the SNP pushing on doggedly for a 2010 poll."
The issue is whether (as you argued in an earlier post) the SNP should voluntarily withdrwaw its referendum bill, or introduce it as planned and force the unionists to vote it down in the Holyrood chamber. In this regard I think the SNPshould press ahead, but there aint going to be a referendum in 2010, nor i strongly suspect before the 2011 Holyrood elections. This I think is no bad thing, but it should be because of a documented Unionist veto, not because the SNP got cold feet.
That is a specific tactical consideration, but it relates to the broader strategic question of how closely the SNP should involve itself in devolved government. Here I like how Jim Sillar puts it in his recent Holyrood magazine article when he points out the dangers of "devolution managerialism"
I dont agree with all his analysis nor his conclusions, but he raises all the right questions.
alex
You are overcritical of the SNP leadership.
I dont think the conditions are ripe for independence, global economic recessions never are. Just look at the plight of nationalist parties across the globe to see this.
I think the SNP leadership has been good - it was that leadership that won in 2007 remember. But conditions are changing and if I were to be critical I think they have been slow to react.
Block Grant cuts? There aint been any yet, indeed there have been significant real increases up until now. These plus a general dynamism the new adminstration has brought have i think seen generally favourable results to date. But starting now, and getting worse year on year there will be real cuts and deep ones to the block grant. In this context im not sure running devolution is where the SNP wants to be, particularly with Labour in opposition, in the UK and Scotland.
I am no fundamentalist, think in general parties should engage, govern. But not always, not under any conditions, not least under someone else devolved settlement trying to balance someone elses books.
Re Westminster voting intentions rather than the SNP getting 'a hammering' as you put it, the SNP vote is up about 7% the LD down about 12% Labour no change and Tories up about 3 or 4. The LD are the ones to worry next year
We are not in a mere recession. What we are seeing is the collapse of the British economy.
That has to be exploited. I've posted plenty evidence on my blog and there's plenty more out there that Britain is tanking.
We are probably looking at about half the UK budget going on interest payment on the national debt in a few years time. We are talking bankrutpcy.
The SNP must position itself for that. This is real politics we're talking about. Managerialism is part of a mindset that is over. Yes, Salmond and Swinney look like good managers but that age is past.
Now, a grown up strategy is needed and Scotland needs to consider its economic planning in the event of a currency and economic collapse in Britain.
The SNP should be preparing the population for escape from bankrupt Britain PLC.
People just don't get it. There isn't going to be a 'recovery'. The SNP needs to keep up.
Jeff
Do not go slitting a wrist just yet. This is one poll, and from the Telegraph.
It seems like a lifetime ago (Sunday) when the papers were full of a poll showing a hung parliament with the torys only having a 6% lead. Next day a poll in political betting shows the torys with a 19% lead.
Remember the vital question that the poll in the Holyrood magazine asked, would you change your no vote on independence to yes if Cameron was in Westminster. The number who said they would change was high (I forget the amount)
The Telegraph or any other MSM organization would not dare ask that question as they know they would not get the the headline they want.
A poll by Baroness Ashton's hubby's outfit. So Kellner digs up a tonic for Jimmy Brownsnot. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm?
I think it was Math Campbell who wrote on his blog recently that what we need to be doing is talking about what life might be like in an Independent Scotland.
I agree with him. We do too little of that. Fair enough, the Scottish government has been seen to be doing a difficult job quite well, but that is only part of the deal surely.
The SNP has become the establishment, but it also needs to remember that a bigger struggle than managing the Scottish government is part of its raison d'etre.
Let's have some visionary speeches about the future. How will life be for us? The little things that people actually care about. People need to have something to look forward to, particularly in these dreary times.
As much as the bad times are, for some, a time to hold on to what we know and are sure of (even if it is the mess that the UK is in), they are also, for more adventurous people, the best time to dream of and fight for a brighter future outwith the UK.
So come on Alex, paint us some pictures of our future. Sell independence to the doubters.
I wouldn't get too worked up about any poll. For Westminster, the reality is that the SNP will do well where it is currently strong and will get obliterated elsewhere due to the squeeze effect.
It will win in its current heartlands and in some areas where the breakthrough was made in 2007; most probably West Lothian, Falkirk and Ayrshire. It may also pick up seats like Gordon, Inverness and Argyll from the LibDems depending just how badly they do.
Someone else mentioned it. All the SNP needs to do is consolidate its current position at Westminster. That will give an incredibly strong platform to push through to 2011.
Personally, I hope Labour win the election. That way they will have to face up to mess they have created. Scotland will never turn to the Tories for protection from Labour cuts and that leaves only one solution.
The Nats are in a tricky spot!
I'd say the Nats are the only party that are not in a tricky spot.
The only 'spot' the Nats have to decide on is when, where and how hard they choose to pounce.
I've said before, in my opinion, the Westminster elections are a distraction to the objective of gaining independence. But unlike the Holyrood elections when the campaigning is limited in scope to devolved issues they can take the Westminster party lines and their incompetences head on and blow them out of Scottish waters.
What's with all this navel gazing angst?
Naval gazing angst?
It's about talking about what you believe in. People think that independence is less important than jobs - as if the two were not connected. It's the job of the SNP to connect the two.
Westminster elections do matter. Here is where we must lay the groundwork for Holyrood and the referendum.
If we are going to refocus the minds of the people from London rule and onto independence this is where it will show.
I really wonder about the political acumen of some SNP party apparatchiky type people.
Sit tight and wait? The nation needs fought for tooth and nail. There is a massive opportunity here and it's not being recognised! And we are losing the propaganda battle and that is a crying shame!
I could have guessed that you worked for Jim Sillars ALex with your mindset Alex Porter.
"People need to be told ...."
No they don't. People rather like to think that they take the decision about which party to vote for and which constitutional option they prefer. They don't need to be told anything.
If you want to refocus minds you won't do it by telling people what they ought to think, you will just antagonise them.
Alex, it seems the only disagreement between us is in the importance or irrelevance of Westminster elections.
Do you really believe twenty or thirty SNP MP's in Westminster will help the cause of independence or will it, as I believe, concentrate in direct opposition across the party lines?
The odds of 20 - 30 or even 60 succeeding against 600 is pretty remote.
Your observation of Scotland not winning the propaganda war is valid. Like the death of a thousand cuts since 2007 the national news has treated all the political events in Scotland as an anathema -unless it can be broadcast to the SNP's detriment. The same seems to apply to both of the so called quality Scottish papers.
I don't know if your despair at SNP aparatchiks and their lack of political acumen was aimed at me or not, but for what it's worth my only interest is in getting a decent and competent government for an independent Scotland, and the same for the rest of the UK.
Considering the performance of both the Westminster factions, for either of them to be considered is akin to asking the electorate which type of cancer they prefer.
"We are not in a mere recession. What we are seeing is the collapse of the British economy.
That has to be exploited. I've posted plenty evidence on my blog and there's plenty more out there that Britain is tanking.
We are probably looking at about half the UK budget going on interest payment on the national debt in a few years time. We are talking bankrutpcy.
The SNP must position itself for that. This is real politics we're talking about. Managerialism is part of a mindset that is over. Yes, Salmond and Swinney look like good managers but that age is past.
Now, a grown up strategy is needed and Scotland needs to consider its economic planning in the event of a currency and economic collapse in Britain.
The SNP should be preparing the population for escape from bankrupt Britain PLC."
Yep, economic planning and implementation is what the SNP should have gone big on over the last 12 months. Lots of emphasis on making that their No1 priority, bold statements to make the necessary cuts etc would have seen the electorate view the SNP as taking a strong lead.
Instead some suggest they 'exploit' this by pushing the Independence referendum harder, even in light of this current poll findings showing them that would be a misguided strategy. I know that originally the SNP hoped to use the blanket refusal of the other parties to vote for a referendum against them.
Word of advice, I don't think that will be successful at this moment in time. The others parties position on this is very much with that of the voters. Its the SNP who will suffer electorally for pushing on with this flagship policy at the exact wrong time economically.
They missed a golden opportunity this year to cement their position and put Labour back on the wrong foot in Scotland. Mores the pity.
Fitalass you are a Tory so you quite like the idea of cuts. Most people don't which is why they don't vote Tory.
It is true that we are facing a serious financial situation but let's look at how the SNP is managing it and I use the word manage quite deliberately. The SNP was elected to government, it is their job to manage those public services for which they are responsible.
The Govt released figures today on public sector efficiencies - more than 800 million saved from public sector budgets to be reinvested in frontline services.
And thanks to the Concordat local authorities can now collaberate to find new ways to make savings by sharing services and so on.
That is a reason to vote SNP and it is also a reason to vote for independence because it demonstrates the effectiveness of self government.
So I agree with Jeff - it's a long game and we are winning. So we lost a couple of by-elections and the polls take a dip. So what? Have people forgotten that we won the euros just this summer?
Westminster is always going to be a tough nut to crack for the SNP for the simple reason that most electors view it as a contest to govern the UK and we are not in that contest. We will win in seats where the SNP campaigns contimuously and has built up a good relationship with voters. That is the key to winning seats - and the key to winning independence too. There is no magic bullet, just hard work.
"Fitalass you are a Tory so you quite like the idea of cuts. Most people don't which is why they don't vote Tory."
Oh dear.
Alex Porter has made several good points, some of which relate to the reasons for the By-election loss. Looks like New Labour spin is winning...
Having read throught the poll details and they are not all that bad at all. I see the newspaper is being a bit naughty in saying at only an eighth placed Independence as a main issue. I took part in this poll. You are asked to state 2 choices and in no particular order your preference so it would seem a quarter did choose that option. In previous surveys ( for decades) before devolution, devolution itself always was way down the list of priorities stated.
In the voting for Westminster not a bad poll figure for the SNP. The vote will not be a uniform vote but concentrated in parts of the country just as the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives will be as well. The polls sometime over-estimate the Labour share but time will tell. The LD will be disappointed with their vote share but I think their vote will be where it matters and they will poll poorly where there is no organisation.
As to the referendum, this should be brought to parliament as it was in the SNP manifesto, it will be voted down. The SNP will then put it into the 2011 election manifesto for the voters to then decide. It is called democracy. I agree with the comments of Subrosa, they need to show more passion.
Agree with subrosa and Tris. There should be more emphasis on the possibities that independence would bring. To concentrate on good governance in the envelope of the devolution settlement, whilst in the middle of a global recession, is leaving the SNP far too open to ''Events, dear boy''.
They are not supposed to be in power for the sake of power, they are supposed to be in power for the sake of moving independence forward. If the unionists gang up and throttle the referendum then fine, let them, it won't hurt.
The SNP should not just be seen as being in competition with Labour to see who can run the show better at Holyrood. That is a short term strategy, and the more they get bogged down in the minutae of devolved politics the more they will lose their edge. Like they did in GNE.
They need to illustrate for all, and in primary colours, why being independent will make a difference to ordinary Scots. So far that seems to have been placed on the back burner.
That is a good reply Observer and is what I was thinking.
As to regard to some who say -'you cannot have it(referendum) in a recession'. The spending from all sides will generate a boost to the economy. It helps printers, advertisers etc etc. As the advert goes 'every little bit helps'
But the SNP are in power and have responsibility for the management of most public services in Scotland. You cannot simply brush that off as the minutae of devolution.
How Scotland's public servics are managed matters and will matter more and more as budgets tighten. It matters whether elderly people can continue to receive free personal care. It matters whether the NHS remains free at the point of need. It matters whether councils are able to start building houses again without losing them under right to buy.
The Scottish Government is responsible for all of these kimds of issues and it matters that they get it right because we are in competition with Labour for who runs Scotland's public services. No one should dismiss that as a mere detail.
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