In what could prove to be the SNP's worst weekend for a while, a new Ipsos MORI poll has come out from The Times showing support for independence at 20%.
46% are in favour of a devolved Parliament with enhanced powers.
32% are in favour of devolution with the existing powers.
Those in favour of a referendum in the short term is 25%, significantly lower than the ~60% it was earlier in the year.
For me, it's pretty clear that the SNP needs to get back to focussing on winning key, core battlegrounds before pushing as hard as it currently is with its independence plans. Don't get wrong, the party has the arguments to win a yes/no referendum, but the timing right now is all wrong.
Stories of the Scottish Government threatening to take control of schools, the lack of a Scottish Futures Trust up and running, the Greens and Labour refusing to support the budget, a ferocious battle brewing over minimum pricing and a Scottish economy that is still lagging behind the UK's all adds up to putting the referendum in a drawer until 2012.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm not ready to see Richard Baker as Justice Secretary...
Carla in bronze
28 seconds ago
14 comments:
Not good at all, I think we do need to focus on getting the job done. In these troubled times people are very risk adverse and Labour is winning its arquements about the referendum being not as important as the economy. We are getting squeezed.
On the good side though is Malcolm Chisolm openly coming out on our side over minimum pricing
This was always going to happen, did anyone really think that the establishment were just going to roll over on the thin wedge of a SNP victory at holyrood.
This is only the beginning, get ready for the anti-neverendum of unionist saying committing to there being a 'right' time for a referendum.
This referendum is consultative, it is an official poll if you like. A poll to start negotiations towards greater autonomy or independence.
Test it now, let the other parties explain why they don't wish to give scots a view on this, simply waiting for the economy to recover doesn't change the arguments and will make the snp look like they are fair weather nationalists.
I accept you can't change plans the day before publishing a paper so I guess what I'm saying is I hope this process is 'referendum-lite' as opposed to 'referendum-max'. Of course people expect the SNP to push for a referendum and those not in favour will even tolerate it up to a point but push too hard and there'll be a tipping point that the Nats will struggle to fight back from.
That much, surely, is abundantly clear in this poll.
Note that arguing for independence in theory and arguing for a 2010 referendum are not the same thing. The SNP should crank up the former and dial down the latter.
A 10 point drop from the average?
I think this might be rogue poll. Have to wait and see when the full polling data comes out.
jeff, there are tactical issues on how far and for how long the SNP should push its white paper, ones we have discussed in the past. But surely tomorrow and for the rest of this year at least the SNP has to give it big guns, be seen to go down fighting?
The more strategic question is though why support for independence is slidding? Of course the global recession, but I also think in part due to the baggage "government" carries. I see other posters use phrases like "focus on getting the 'job done'". The problem though is under the devolved settlement the job will never, can never, be done: What happens is you end up with headlines like "SNP to take control of Schools" etc. Very liberating!
Needs a full discussion, but I am far from convinced that the road to independence invoves the SNP running someone elses devolved settlement better than they can.
Despite this poll - which does mirror other recent ones - I remain optimistic we can get there . How and when though?
It is not actually too bad, bearing in mind it is a multi-option poll. (I wonder what the figures would have been on the straight question - almost certainly higher than the 30% we saw recently). If it was a straight option poll, and the "yes" result was below 25% then that would be worrying. And certainly 80% of respondents want a referendum - not something that can be brushed under the carpet.
I agree with Lost Highlander and AWC though. The SNP should be making their independence case directly relevant to situation we find ourselves in (I hope they do that tomorrow). And that should be fairly easy to do in appealing directly to the Scottish public:-
"You want us as a (Scottish) government to alleviate the unemployment problem? You need to give us the powers to do that. You want us to get more people out of poverty and into work. You need to give us the powers to do that and so on...."
And then detailing how they would do that.
It is very easy to point out the multifaceted failings of the Unionist establishment on all these issues. But the SNP need to have a comparison of how things would be better under independence. There is a rich historical archive of examples of Unionist failure and cowardice in tackling many of these issues over the course of recent Scottish history. It really isn't difficult to point that out.
Part of the problem might be that, rather than explaining how little power the Scottish Parliament has to grow the Scots economy, the SNP itself promised to match UK growth rates by 2011. Is the SNP the only independence-seeking party on the planet that pretends to have more power than it actually has?
It is very good news, this means most folk think we are making excellent progress without the referendum. It is an illusion of course. Wait until after 6 months of a Cameron government before you write off independence or any referendum. Michael
And you accept such a poll without even seeing the questions? Do you have ANY clue how easy such a poll is to skew but jiggering the question? Referendum polls are PARTICULARLY easy to do so.
Jeff, who is it you really support?
Jeanne,
They're not all out to get us you know.
Ipsos-MORI are a reputable polling organisation, the questions put seem to be precisely what will be released in the white paper tomorrow and, crucially, the results are perfectly believable.
Take your tin foil hat off and go take a wee lie down.
"I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm not ready to see Richard Baker as Justice Secretary..."
Jeff, I have been warning about this for a few months now to cries of derision from SNP supporters. Yes, I am a Tory so therefore the opposition. But, I don't want a Labour minority or Libdem coalition back in Holyrood anytime in the near future either.
So sometimes, when non SNP posters are suggesting there is valid problems with the current Scottish government and what they are doing, its not automatically partisan sniping but rather sound advice.
Anyone who thinks that questions don't make a difference in the outcome of a survey and that referendum surveys are skewed is being naive or deliberately misleading.
Did they ask about a referendum today? A referendum when the economy has improved in a year? A referendum at all? A multi-question referendum? What was the ORDER of the questions or was there only one?
Can you answer ANY of that?
Insulting people by calling them paranoid doesn't make their comments any less valid and it does cause me to repeat: who is it you really support. You seem to be awfully eager to bash nationalist bloggers.
Jeanne,
I can answer all of that.
The question posed was a multi-option referendum, the only possible question that will be asked next year. (A straight yes/no is extremely unlikely to the point of being discountable)
The question will have been how people would vote "today" because almost all polls are asking how a respondent feels on the day they are questioned. That's generally the point of polls.
The order of the answers is unimportant and to think that will have affected more than 1 or 2 of the respondents is bonkers.
You're right though, maybe an improved economy will make a difference, maybe the Tories in power will make a difference (it undoubtedly will) and all manner of things could be different come 2010.
But if people are going to discard polls as either rogue or fixed just because they don't like the results then I will continue to call them paranoid and it's up to them if they want to be insulted.
I support the vast majority of SNP's policies, it is far and away the best party in Scotland right now and the jury's still out on independence, but if you want this blog to be a slavish loyalist for everything related to the party then you'll continue to be sorely disappointed I'm afraid.
I like the Greens too.
PS Your 5(!) back-to-back comments on Iain MacWhirter's were a dribbling embarrassment.
If you permit me to quote from Iain MacWhirter's column.
"I believe this is why Alex Salmond has been willing to accept that 'third question' on the referendum ballot paper – the 'devo max' option, based on Calman. It may be a unionist proposal, but so was the Scottish parliament. People said that devolution was a trap, a half way house that would never work, a means of undermining independence. It was – but it was also a democratically elected legislature which has steadily drawn power to itself. Calman would be an important new stage in the evolution of Scottish democracy.
So, while the SNP may not be doing so well right now, the momentum is still towards Scottish autonomy. The truth is that independence is paradoxically, a goal that will never be reached because full separation is no longer possible. It isn't the destination that matters, but the journey"
with the advent of the EU there is no such thing as total Independence anymore. Perhaps the question should be , Do you wish Scotland to have the same status as Germany, Italy ,France etc - YES or No?
When I started helping the SNP in Perth in 1959 by putting out a few leaflets the idea that we would be discussing a referendum would only be a dream. Then we cheered if we saved our deposit. We have come a long way since then and I believe the present strategy of a bit at a time to be fine. If the referendum gets voted down then that is one of the planks for the 2011 election campaign. People will tend to veer for a middle way so it could be a very astute plan to gather as much powers as possible. If they do vote for devo-max then it is only a matter of time for it press for full automomy. It may be a longer journey for some but it is moving in our direction.
Post a Comment