Well, I haven't a clue if the polls have opened or not but it sounds good, a palpable start to proceedings, a sense of drama, it's showtime.
And yet, it's not really, Labour should win fairly easily and it would be foolish to think the SNP ever really had a serious chance in one of Labour's safest, if not THE safest seat in the UK. Even in the Euro elections as neighbouring Glasgow seats fell to the SNP, this one stayed resolutely Labour.
One can't help but wonder if Gordon Brown has planned this all along, long before Michael Martin's over-priced robes were on a shoogly nail. Creating a perfect excuse for a by-election going into a General Election and giving the illusion of momentum (not to mention scaring off the last remnants of a leadership challenge) is the perfect tonic for the man.
Thankfully the PM won't have it as easy as he has done on the streets of Springburn when May 2010 comes around.
(I think I'll indulge in some liveblogging tonight as the result and chat comes in from the coverage on BBC1 and ITV, and as Question Time unfolds, so feel free to check back later on this evening for some quality, if a little nerdy, by-election chatter)
Salmond vs Trump
19 minutes ago
18 comments:
Hi Jeff,
I think we needed a fighter in this seat. Yer man is too nice and polite.
We should have fought this on Labour corruption (the reason for the by-election), Brown's banking hand-outs (with his Thatcher photo) in bankrupt Britain and opposition to the war. Naturally, lots of positive arguments about independence..
This really had to be a fist-fight. It's 3rd world Glasgow we're fighting to liberate not a tea-house in rural Perthshire..
SNP strategy was wrong on this one!
The Glasgow NE voters would elect a cheese plant if it wore a Labour rosette. Pity.
Jeff..
I agree Labour will win tonight but its hardly and endorsement for Gordon Brown, its more to do with a protest vote against an inevitable Tory government next year.
Alex Porter..
The problem with the SNP is they are not as negative as Labour when it comes to by-elections, maybe the SNP should fight future by-elections on a more aggressive negative manner and smash Labour into a crumpled heap.
The problem the SNP has historically had is that it had to place all faith in by-elections to generate momentum.
Happily, since 2007, that is no longer the case and I believe that Glenrothes finally rammed the message home that, in truth, by-elections make no difference to the overall political narrative unless it is fought on a specific issue of national importance (eg poll tax).
I hope this campaign demonstrates that the SNP has finally grown up as a party and it now realises the futility of chucking six figure sums at by-elections and sucking activists from everywhere else in the country in the hope of getting a few short term headlines.
The SNP is a party of Government now. It doesn't need to win by-elections any more - especially ones in rock solid Labour seats.
Maybe, of course, the people of Springburn like living in derelict blocks of flats. Maybe they love grafitti and rubbish all around as they pick their way through the sringes and Buckie bottles. Maybe they never wanted anything else.
Maybe that's why people go on voting Labour.
If ever I had lived in a constituency where the MP was one of the most powerful people in the country, I would have expected him or her to use that power to get things done. I wouldn't have expected miracles... that might have seemed like corruption (and we wouldn't want that), but I would have expected that the place would look, well anything but they way it looks.
The only solution seems to be that the people of Springburn don't want anything to change. And in that respect they will get their way....
Hi STV,
The following YouTube video released today may be of interest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZXxtDG6AT0
Colin.
Hi STV,
The following YouTube video released today may be of interest:
Glasgow North East, 1999-2009
Colin.
This is a really good example of talking down expectations.
Jeff - I really like your pieces normally, but this is Colin Nish stuff to say that the SNP never had a realistic chance.
Of course the SNP did (and still do because people are still voting) have a chance.
However, if Labour do win here, i it not plausible that its because the local & Scottish Party has learned the lessons of Glasgow East?
Think I'll join you on that Jeff, since I started up my blog (http://voxpopulivoxscoti.blogspot.com/) again a week or two ago….
I think we'll certainly knock the majority down a good amount, but I doubt we'll have climbed the mountain today. We can certainly see the summit though and come May, we'll be back this way in better weather…
2011 is the year that could give a majority at Holyrood.
I agree fulsomely with Alex.
I'm all in favour of positive campaigning, but there are occasions where getting down and dirty is the only course of action if we are to effectively counter Labour.
Gordon Wilson recently made the same point in his new book - if we think Labour is hitting below the belt in GNE, just wait until the independence referendum.
cant someone knock up one of those proper live blogs that Tory Bear and Guido Use?
Anyone got any idea how it is going on the ground?
Alex,
Definitely agree. I guess the SNP had a lack of options. Nothing against David Kerr who has done absolutely as well as he could, I reckon James Dornan tearing strips off Willie Bain would've made for an interesting campaign.
Ah well, dem's the breaks. There's a constituency out there for David Kerr somewhere, no doubt a third one he was born in too... ;)
Thomas, you're welcome to that view but I honestly wasn't deliberately doing down the SNP's chances in this post (which could still come later in the live blog post)
Of course the SNP had 'a chance' but not a realistic one.
A constituency that has been Labour's for 74 years, perhaps even the safest in the entire UK, media that has been staunchly on Labour's side, busloads of activists from down in England to knock doors, unions opening up offices to let MSPs and researchers telecanvass and no doubt more money on Labour's side too.
At what point did you think the SNP were truly in with a shout?
PS Who is Colin Nish?
It's a disappointing result. Not for a single second did I expect the SNP to win but I am concerned that their vote dropped from 2005.
I think Alex porter above has it about right. I'd add that this seat needed a fighter and that David Kerr may well have been better deployed elsewhere.
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