Sending a group of Margos to Westminster

Although I believe that one swallow does not make a summer, I do think the much-trumpeted Ipsos-Mori poll showing Labour just 6% behind the Tories is significant.

I would happily wager that in the vast majority of elections that have been and gone the challenger closes the gap as election date looms and let's hand it to Labour, despite having been in Government for the past 12 years, they have somehow contrived to paint themselves as the challengers.

This has opened the door for the SNP to once again push the people of Scotland to consider who they may wish the deal-breakers to be in any hung Parliament that may arise. Some may scoff at Salmond's overtones that it would be the Lib Dems that would be at the front of the queue and that may well be the case but I tend to have Margo MacDonald in mind when I think of these things.

If, before the 2007 election, the Lothians MSP had campaigned on the suggestion that she would be holding the balance of power in Holyrood she would have been derided in many quarters, perhaps even all four. The promise that Margo could pull money from whichever Government took office and direct it Edinburgh's way would have been seen as unlikely and yet as 1 sole MSP out of 129, that is precisely what she has managed to do, and more besides.

The equivalent of 1 MSP out of 129 in Westminster is 5 MPs out of the 646, a sum that the SNP has already exceeded and can expect to exceed further come May 2010.

Although I agree with Iain Dale that a parliamentary majority is preferable to a minority Government (admittedly once I've shaken off my latent socialist philosophy that it's nice that everyone should agree), that is not a result that can be gerrymandered as hard as one may try.

Labour are closing the gap nationally which suggests that in Scotland their vote may harden but the SNP has a compelling story to tell. And speaking of swallows and summers, the suggestion of a hardening of Labour's vote on the back of one by-election, as several Sunday papers did, is dubious at least.

Furthermore, Cameron may have one last political grenade to throw into the mix north of the border. Of course he won't be visiting us very much between now and the general election, there are precious few seats to win for his party though I think it's fair to say that if he doesn't at least make an effort to gain ground in Scotland then his claim of respect for those north of the border will be somewhat diluted. A mandate for all of the UK? That remains to be seen.

Anyway, Cameron's Scottish throw of the dice could be to make some sort of move that will assist the SNP. Labour have a good 30-40 seats that it can win up here, more than enough to be the balance of power in Westminster. An SNP gain is better than a Labour hold for the Tories, and the more of them the better.

Is it feasible, as the SNP strain every sinew to bleed as much votes out of the hung parliament narrative as possible, that Cameron will seek to abolish Barnett and/or bluntly address the West Lothian question to not only gain ground in 'Middle England' but also provide the SNP a the perfect megaphone to show why a strong Scottish voice is required in Westminster after all?

May 2010: A convincing Tory lead but no majority, a decimated Lib Dem group and a strong, deal-breaking bloc of SNP MPs. That seem to be plan A for now and I, for one, see no reason why it shouldn't be...