There is a new poll out from TNS-BMRB (formerly TNS System 3) in The Herald today.
With a meaty sample of 983, the Holyrood voting intentions are:
Constituency
SNP - 40%
Labour - 32%
Regional
SNP - 37%
Labour - 29%
A rock solid lead for the Nationalists and they look set to take a commanding lead in the 2011 election on this evidence.
However, it is a remarkably different picture for the Westminster voting intentions and it seems that Salmond's narrative of a strong bloc of Scottish MPs standing up for Scottish interests is not getting through to the public or, worse, it is getting through and is being soundly rebuffed.
The Westminster voting intentions are:
Labour - 39%
SNP - 25%
Tories - 18%
Lib Dems - 12%
A 14% lead is enormous, even with 43% undecided and with a trend of the SNP slipping away from Labour in YouGov subsamples for months now.
So is it a rogue poll? Perhaps but I would say very, very unlikely and I do like to think that the SNP make up one half of the majority of those undecideds.
Mind you, I have overheard and been party to several conversations in the last few weeks (involving non-political types) which have all involved the line 'well, only Labour or the Tories can win it' with the clear conclusion that their vote will go to either of those parties.
That's the dagger in the heart for Team SNP and deep down, even though they'll fight it tooth and claw, they know that it will hurt them to a certain extent in the end but is also the reason why the Scottish Parliament elections are the key determinant for the party's fortunes.
It seems the classic 3rd party squeeze is already underway with voters wanting to vote for a winner. Nick Clegg understood it when he repeated his wish to be Prime Minister and Tavish Scott understood it when he suggested he could be First Minister in the aftermath of coalition discussions back in 2007.
The public already likes the SNP, that much is clear from the Holyrood voting intentions in this poll, so it's not the party's achievements that have to be sold so much as the party's relevance. On current evidence, it seems the only way the SNP can make the 20+ MP breakthrough that it so craves is to make Scots believe that the party that wins the highest share of the vote in Scotland will be 'the winner'.
Maybe more Salmond vs Murphy press releases are required? I don't know but in a UK election with only a miserly slice of the electorate believing in independence and viewing the result via strictly a Scottish prism, that will be a very tough sell indeed.
Salmond vs Trump
8 minutes ago
17 comments:
Without being insanely optimistic I don't think a Labour victory - even a strong one - at Westminster on the back of an anti-Tory vote actually spells bad news for the SNP.
Because what then?
Barring some kind of divine intervention we are going to have a Tory Government after the next GE which will place the Labour Party in Scotland in a very difficult position.
Either they back the SNP Government when it chooses to take on Westmoinster on particular issues or it looks as though they are backing the Tories against the Scottish Government, in which case they look like the worst kind of hypocrites.
This has to be fought tooth and nail. Perceptions must be changed. Labour are going to play the Tories by the back door card. This must be outmanouvred.
People must be told:
1) The election will be decided in England.
2) The British election is a 2 horse race to bankruptcy.
3) The Westminster election in Scotland is about a staged move away from a bankrupt Britain to independence.
SOme more thoughts on my blog: http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com/
I don't think the Holyrood and Westminster polls are out of line in fact.
I'd suggest that the large number of don't knows in the Westminster polls are the previously Labour minded folk who have already decided to back the SNP at Holyrood but havn't quite made the leap for Westminster yet.
Strategically, I think Indy is right to say that a Labour victory at Westminster is in the interests of the Independence movement.
If the Tories win, then it gives Labour the opportunity to appear more nationalist as they won't have to worry about opposing their war-mongering pals in power at Westminster. That could be a problem for the SNP.
Should Labour hang on, however, we will see savage cuts being implemented by a Labour govt because of the mess a Labour govt made.
What choice for Scots then? Switch to the Tories or vote for Independence.
As with all polls it would be more revealing and honest to see and hear how and when the actual questions were drafted and posed to extract the answers? Again, who and how were the respondents selected and who requested the poll in the first place?
I've refused to answer some political polls due to the obvious embedded prejudice and the lack of free choice by the pollster's omission of certain political party options!
Jeff - As ever a thoughtful and balanced piece. It does fit in with a more general trend of Scottish polls for Westminster, but I don't think we should get too obsessed with the precise figures, I suspect there will be fluctuations over the next six months.
I'm surprised that "non-political types" (and the TNS panel) apparently consider it a race between Labour and the Tories. Everyone I've spoken to thinks it isn't a race at all, and that Labour's a goner however they vote.
Interesting divergence. Shows the point of elections is less to vote for who you want, than to elect the government you think is most likely to beat the party you dislike. What does this mean for the SNP - continual oblivion an Westminster level? It looks as though Salmond's boast might come back to haunt him.
I think to suggest independence can be 'won' more easily through the UK being badly handled rather than the SNP proving its worth in the big league is a rocky road to go down. The SNP has done an excellent job in pushing a positive agenda. To suggest a strong block of Labour MPs returned at the next election plays into Nationalist hands is bizarre. Of course they'll speak up against the Tories, the SNP risk being squeezed out further in such an instance. But yes, as ever, it is just one poll. Fun to speculate though...
Jeff,
When I saw your thread entitled "We're on a road to nowhere" this morning, I thought that was your view on this poll. I still think it would have been the more appropriate title!
How well or badly the SNP does at the next westmisnter elctiosn will I think depend a great deal on the electorate's peecerption of how close it will be between labour and Tory at Uk level. If a few days before the election a biggish tory win is seen as inevitable, the SNP could yet do well as voters concliude a big SNP block, allied to a Holyrood SNP administration at Holyrood is a better insurance policy than a big but impotent Scottish Labour block of MPs.
Inversely, if it is still seen as close UK wise, the SNP vote could be badly squeezed at both ends - and remember its mainly former tory seats the snp holds, and sitting MPs coul;d be vulnerable.
I think the SNP needs just to fight as hard as it can and hope the UK cards fall its way. But SNP supporter might need to prepare for dissappointment, essentially for reasons outwith their control.
Its the post rather than pre election period though i think that will be critical , with of course by then Holyrood election being not too far off
"Maybe more Salmond vs Murphy press releases are required?"
But Salmond chose not to debate Murphy recently when he was challenged. He also knocked back Cameron, and suggested he was being presumptive by approaching him before the next GE. The SNP made much of the fact that they should feature in any leadership debate before the next GE, and going as far as to talk of legal action to prevent it being shown in Scotland.
Then we had the strategy of hoping for a hung Parliament that could be 'hung by a Scottish rope' or dance to a 'Scottish tune'.
See the pattern emerging?
Looking at this poll, I am struck by the mixed messages its conveying right now. Do I expect it to reflect the Westminster and Holyrood election results in 2010 and 2011, No.
So much for Iain Gray for Bute house then!!
Agreed with your take on the Westminster front Jeff. As per usual the SNP are being squeezed in a Westminster election.
Aye We Can
Hmm sorry I disagree with you, I think the Scottish voters will turn to Labour because of the huge Tory lead that seems now apparent in every UK poll.
The Labour vote in Scotland is little more than a protest vote against a big Cameron majority.
But Jeff is correct, the SNP need to fight hammer and nail to convince voters that Scotland needs a strong group of SNP MP,s to ensure Scotland's voice is heard.
Labour cant even do that and they are in bloody government.!!
You are showing your age there Jeff - perhaps you don't remember the "Feeble Fifty"?
We have after all been through the scenario of Scotland being governed by a Tory Government with no mandate in Scotland before.
The outcome of that was the Scottish Parliament - which was intended to kill the SNP/independence stone dead but has instead given the SNP the opportunity to replace Labour as the natural party of government in Scotland.
The difficulty for Labour now is that, having delivered devolution, where can they go now? It will be difficult for them to fight Tory rule over Scotland (assuming the Tories are elected and assuming they will govern in a way Scots don't like - both of which are pretty safe assumptions) without challenging the very concept of Westminster rule. And they don't want to do that.
Before anyone jumps in and cites my comments as "proof" that the SNP wants a Tory victory - no I don't, I am just looking at what the consequences are likely to be.
Labour's dilemma will be very real. They cannot simply assume nationalist clothing and present themselves as standing up for Scotland against the Tories at Westminster because to do that will further legitimise nationalism in the eyes of their own supporters.
But they must be seen to challenge the Tories - or be seen as being on their side.
Really, what difference does Westminster make.
Everyone knows, for one thing, that a referendum bill will go through Holyrood, NOT Westminster. And the SNP aims to govern Scotland NOT the UK.
The SNP needs to set its goals and work toward them. And I question the wisdom of making that goal a voting bloc at Westminster.
the media in scotland really has been ramping up labour over the last few days.
mad dog at the hootsmon is in fantasyland as usual.
makes you wonder what would they be saying if they really had been effective and done some good things for the people.
comments that labour supporters have actually filled in many of the postal votes on doorsteps need to be confirmed by people who are on the ground.
can anyone say they had a visit from labour, they offered to fill it out on someone's behalf and then all they had to do was sign it? we need to know if this has been done, or indeed if all parties have done it.
Alex Porter.
I agree. I have argued that the SNP should have their referendum campaign as their General Election campaign. With the mismanagement of New Labour and the mistrust there is still out there for the Cameron/Osbourne ticket (i personally think they are a disaster waiting to happen), there will be milage in presenting a diferent argument
http://humbug3.blogspot.com/2009/09/blowing-apart-general-election.html
By the way, am I alone in thinking the next Election is not quite cut and dried just yet?
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