There has been lots of delightfully wanton speculation about General Election dates during Gordon's time as Prime Minister. A snap election? Autumn 2008? June 2009? A November election? We've speculated and been left deflated each and every time. The rather dull and always expected date of May 2010 trundles ever closer and the chance of a rare shock from the Fife MP becomes ever more remote.
Well, hold the fort, I have heard news from a Government source that the election will be on for March. Not only is this a Government source, but his department has been told it will be March too. Idle speculation is one thing but active preparation is quite another.
Politically it makes sense for Labour too. It means the election will be far enough anyway from a proper budget to be as much of a consideration as it could (should) be and it ties in with the recent contraction of the polls where Labour has been in touching distance. It also makes the Prime Minister look even slightly less desperate by not waiting till the very, very end before throwing in the towel and, above all else, 20th February is Gordon Brown's birthday; a nice day to announce an election perhaps?
I think it looks pretty locked in so on the day when the PhI 100 are confident of a May election and the odds for March are lengthening I have steamed into the Ladbrokes market with a whopping...... £15 bet!
I know, I know, we've been here before but I think it all makes perfect sense. Gordon Brown has dithered with every opportunity he has had to have an election before the last possible moment. Having an election in March is his last chance to go early. He has to go for it!
March 25th folks. You might aswell get the sleep-deprived, post game analysis, how-hung-is-the-Parliament-anyway Friday 26th off work now....
* When I say "guaranteed" I am, of course, talking cobblers....
UPDATE: Unbeknownst to me, Tory Bear, Dizzy Thinks and Political Betting have all, in the past few days, had posts citing March 25th as the election date.
It's on, it's so on...
Salmond vs Trump
9 minutes ago
13 comments:
That date has been going the rounds for a week or so around various political parties - could be true.
you can cite me if you want, although i did say 4th march, although in my defence, it was yonks ago, so just getting march was a win!
25th march is a stick on. just don't tell them i told you.
Hm. That would be expensive for me if true.
Of course, even if Brown is currently putting out the order for 25th March, he could well shite it and change his mind as the date approaches. I'll resist the urge to hedge for now.
The latest poll puts Dave 17 points clear.
I don't know what that is Jeff, but it's not touching distance.
Jeff
I can only plan for one election night party at a time. I may join you with a 50p bet. (there is a recession on you know).
Brown is playing havoc with my social calendar, not to mention my holiday plans.
Anonymous: The way the whole system is weighted towards Labour makes it necessary for the Tories to have a 10 point lead to break even.
17 points is a deal more than that, but you've to take all the minor parties into consideration. A good Lib vote, 15-20 SNP seats could mean that a 17 point lead over Labour won't mean that much.
March 25th you say, interesting.
1306: Robert the Bruce crowned King of the Scots
1807: Slave trade in England abolished by the British Parliament
1925: Greece becomes a republic when King George is deposed
1957: Treaty of Rome signed by six nations, to establish the European Economic Community
politicalbetting.com has the Angus Reid sub-sample (Scotland = 134/1,548) as:
Lab 42%
SNP 33%
Con 14%
Lib 7%
Oth 7%
I heard it's still May, because Labour don't have the money to fight 2 elections right now, and May will be the English Local Government elections….
Hoping for a May election, we've still got an awful lot to do before polling day here….
al bundy, a 134 person subset putting labour ahead is newsworthy, but a 500 person poll on the bbc website showing 94% in favour of independence is not mentioned anywhere. how very interesting
Damn you Jeff! Damn You! I had a fiver on March 25th
After he has read this post Gordon is sure not to want to be seen as having being bounced into an election by a "senior SNP blogger"!
Another fiver down the drain. Damn you again!
Jeff, I have favoured March since Portillo whittered on about it back before the summer on This Week. I am still feeling queasy at not putting my money where my gut instinct was. I still weep at the odds you could get back then!!
I notice that he suddenly fancied May on the back of the recent PBR on the same programme tonight. It probable means that March is nailed on, Diane Abbott seems keen to just the hell on with it.
I am still not sure that Brown will lead the Labour troops up that final hill though, and if he goes before the GE I am looking at taking the other half out for a rather nice meal on the back of it. Well as a Scot, I don't find it that easy to bet big. LOL.
Post a Comment