A difficult period for the SNP this week has a blessed ray of sunshine today with the full results of the IPSOS-MORI poll now available for all to see and no longer merely lying prone waiting to be picked and plucked for a newspaper's own ends.The results of Westminster voting intentions, with 1,009 respondents, are:
SNP - 34%
Labour - 32%
Tories - 12%
Lib Dems - 12%
It's a great shot in the arm for the party, the 'vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland' message is clearly getting through.
However, I do fear that the 32% support for Labour is more solid than the SNP's 34% is, given it is a General Election. In the European elections (when Labour received 20.8% support), Scotland felt free enough to give Gordon Brown a bloody nose but now they have the consideration of giving him his P45.
However, if a conclusion is reached across Scotland that England and Wales will give enough votes to the Tories that votes north of the border will not decide the hue of the next Government, Scotland could build on that 34% and we are well and truly off to the races in terms of how many seats the SNP can win. It could be twenty and beyond.
I only like to predict based on the day's poll so to that end, I have put the above figures into my spreadsheet (with the caveat that this doesn't take into account local factors) and it yields the following results.
SNP - 19 MPs (hello George Kerevan MP, bon chance Richard Thomson MP and slainte bha Julie Hepburn MP)
Labour - 31 MPs (with lots of wafer thin majorities)
Lib Dems - 7 MPs (no gains)
Tories - a constitution-changing, perhaps even independence-delivering 1 MP with only David Mundell staying on at Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
So from Loch Rannoch, to the river's falls and then onto the River Tay, it's abundantly clear that there is plenty of light at the end of the SNP's Tummel.
(Note - a lot of people sent some very nice emails and left some very nice comments recently. All were very much appreciated and most of them involved a good-natured 'get on with it' which I am currently doing. There's a suggestion the election will be as soon as March 25th after all)
14 comments:
Jeff
That's a few polls which suggest a dramatic decline in the LD support since 2005 - with the SNP seeming to be the beneficiary. In last month's TNS poll which has a regional breakdown (unreliable though sub-samples are) have the Highlands and Islands as
Westminster SNP 36% : Lab 35% : Con 21% : LD 7%
Holyrood constituencies SNP 51% : Lab 24% : Con 12% : LD 11%
Holyrood List SNP 47% : Lab 28% : Con 12% : LD 10%
March would be a sensible time to call an election I suppose, but given that it's still a rainy season, turnout would likely be slightly lower, which I don't think Brown can afford. On the other hand, making a snap election announcement during February could help backfoot the Tories if Labour have continued to make gains. On the third hand, announcing an election so early gives Labour a lot less time to complete the Queen's Speech program, handing the Tories political capital.
If the SNP and Labour stay neck and neck, it might be worth both parties targeting Lib Dem seats instead. Of course, that would be a rather cynical piece of poitiking and the SNP and Labour would be more likely to target each other.
It's going to be a very interesting election any way if the polls keep up this fickle dance.
I agree oldnat. To be fair the Lib Dem score has historically gone up at election time due to increased coverage but we're in unchartered waters these days. I see them getting squeezed out to the point of oblivion.
And if the SNP or Labour opt for minority Government from 2011, maybe even the Lib Dems will realise there is no point to the Lib Dems...
More, I like your thinking, targetting Lib Dem seats could well be easy pickings for parties.
The good news is that Labour's 2 seats where they could realistically beat a Lib Dem incumbent (Inverness and East Dunbartonshire) don't get in the way of the 2 main LD targets for the SNP (Gordon and Argyll & Bute)
Very encouraging figures Jeff.
The Lib question does appear in Scotland to be... what are they for?
They aren't particularly liberal in nature, and the democrat part is a bit lacking too.
Then there's Tavish!
In England they are there because if you can't abide the Tories, and you loathe Labour, there has to be another mainstream party to vote for. That's not the situation in Scotland where the main parties are SNP and Labour. If you can't stomach either of them, then there's always the Tories.
I think it might be a good idea to target them. I'm sure that apart from real died in the wool Liberals, there are many who wonder why on earth anyone would vote for them.
I am new to this, having only just created an account and an identity. I had to do it as I have been following the Scottish political blogosphere for some time now but so far haven't yet contributed. But these Cheesegate and "Cybernat" (horrible term) affairs have intrigued me hugely over the weekend and into this week, and they have prompted me finally into action, i.e. getting an account whereby I can make the occasional comment. I really enjoy the intelligent, thoughtful and measured posts of Jeff, Subrosa, Aye We Can, as well as several others, and can only plead that none of you end up succumbing to the current MSM attacks on your freedom to speak your minds. Jeff in particular, I really feel for you as I too was stitched up once by a biased MSM journo before with a "never mind the facts" agenda, and it is a deeply unpleasant experience. Keep it up all of you! Your country needs you!
Good point Tris - what are the Scottish Lib Dem's policies? No referendum? Well people always support more say and more consulation. Their decline of power-sharing with the SNP is starting to look like a fatal error.
As I just posted here http://voxpopulivoxscoti.blogspot.com/2009/12/polls-for-thought.html , I think the YouGov polls may be flawed somehow, regarding the number of Labour supporters it uses. I think maybe their Scottish polls are weighting against UK numbers or something, because that's 3 YouGov polls I've seen over several months that all show Labour up and SNP down when other polls coming out show the opposite….
Meant to say, hope you and the Tories are wrong on a March election.
That's not leaving us much time here….
/Scrabbles back to his strategy papers
Hi Quinie, thanks v much for the comment. I think you're right, the level of debate across many Scottish blogs is strong, free as it largely is from party constraints and newspaper deadlines.
The reputation of course needs somewhat enhanced so with that in mind I'm glad some eloquent folks are arriving rather than leaving!
Glad to see you are keeping your chin up Jeff. This Poll "feels" a bit more accurate as to the chatter round the ring at the market. The Tories don't have the farmers any more, if they have lost us what have they got?
Michael
I wondered how the MSM would deal with this one, since it's completely at odds with the current narrative. The Sun's solution is to lead with the unweighted figures, which show that "voters are backing Labour over the SNP". Ho hum!
Jeff
Glad to see you back on top form. I did say a while back "do not slit a wrist yet".
Totally agree with Quinies comments.
What is interesting is that while The Times must have known these polling figures (some suggestion that they only bought part of the survey) and either could not use them or chose not to use them, it still triggered an avalanche of anti SNP rhetoric on Sunday.
I wonder is that the unionist main stream media fear that we are witnessing?
My own view is that independence is now inevitable, all that we are doing now is discussing the timetable.
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