At the Glasgow North East by-election it was a two horse race. Well, it was a one horse race really but only two parties received a respectable share of the vote and easily kept their deposits.
It was a similar situation in Glenrothes and Glasgow East with Labour and the SNP slugging it out for top spot and the remaining parties somewhat helplessly looking on.
It's a valid argument for the Lib Dems and Tories to say that these are seats that they were never targetting but it's interesting to compare and contrast their showings in by-elections before and after the SNP formed the Government in 2007 to see if there is a difference.
2009: Glasgow North East
Tories - 5.2% (3rd)
Lib Dems - 2.3% (6th)
2008: Glasgow East
Tories - 6.3% (3rd)
Lib Dems - 3.5% (4th)
2008: Glenrothes
Tories - 3.8% (3rd)
Lib Dems - 2.6% (4th)
------------ 2007 Scottish Parliament elections --------------------
2006: Dunfermline and West Fife
Lib Dems - 35.8% (1st)
Tories - 7.8% (4th)
2005: Livingston
Lib Dems - 14.8% (3rd)
Tories - 6.8% (4th)
2000: Falkirk West
Tories - 8.3% (3rd)
Lib Dems - 3.2% (5th)
2000: Glasgow Anniesland
Tories - 10.9% (3rd)
Lib Dems - 8.1% (4th)
The highest joint share of the vote after 2007 was 9.8% in Glasgow East and the lowest between 2000-2007 was 11.5%.
So I reckon there's been a significant shift between the parties as a result of the 2007 elections. It's Labour vs SNP and the Lib Dems and Tories are even further back than they generally were before. Touching 10% in 3rd place in by-elections being a reasonable aim is now seemingly down at 5-6% and crossing the fingers the Lib Dem and Tory candidate can keep their deposits.
Needless to say it is the Lib Dems who have the most to lose given they have more representatives at Westminster and less to sell the public given that Nick Clegg won't be the next Prime Minister while David Cameron probably will. Furthermore, it has been said for a while now but the Lib Dems need a 'big idea'. I don't think bringing down Ministers with threatened calls of no confidence will cut it somehow.
In the last poll the Lib Dems and Tories were on 12% each which equates to 7 MPs and 1 MP respectively and not coming close to making a gain anywhere.
Is this just a continuation of what we've been seeing all along in by-elections?
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6 comments:
There is talk of Labour being 'in the wilderness' in Scotland. If that is the case, then the Lib Dems, at present, must be in the back of a cave even deeper in the wilderness..
They are suffering from poor leadership at Westminster and in Holyrood with the only obvious replacements being Vince Cable and Mike Rumbles, neither of whom seem particularly electable, or inclined to work with the SNP.
I think the downward trend does pretty much come down to poor leadership, a tendency amongst Liberal voters to 'float' and a policy void. The SNP Government has also proved to be more effective on many Lib Dem keynote policies that the Lib Dems were in their 8 years of Government, which won't help matters either.
The two-horse-race trend is growing in all by-elections, surely? At Henley only the Tories and Lib Dems saved their deposits. And, as for the Lib Dems, I note that the Monklands and Hamilton by-elections were followed by Lib Dem vote gains across Scotland and in those particular seats at the next General Election
Well done Jeff.
Glad to see you have shrugged off the slough of blogger despond.
Minor error Jeff - 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife. You have:
Lib Dems - 35.8% (3rd)
Tories - 7.8% (4th)
When in actual fact the Lib Dems' Willie Rennie won the seat. But it is an outlier in your theory, and your point is well made.
Thanks Malc, I was too busy thinking about where they'd finish in the General Election. (Just joking Dr Vee...)
Malcolm, you may well be right, maybe it's a UK phenomenon rather than simply a Scottish one. I figured an SNP Government would be the reason.
It's only an opinion, of course, but More is spectacularly wide of the mark. I also understand the seat prediction is based on a poll, but this must be taken with a great big pinch of salt, because: (a) both the Lib Dems' and the Tories' poll ratings are depressed between elections compared to their actual showing in real elections; and (b) the concept of uniform swings, on which poll predictions are based, is now all but redundant. The variation from uniform swing is now so widespread (unlike, say, a generation or two ago) that, although it may give a semblance of an overall picture, it is useless for predicting results in individual seats.
Labour are highly unpopular with all but their core vote but, remember, as Glasgow NE showed, their core vote is still pretty big in many Scottish seats. Even in their worst possible year, they'd still win almost half of the 59 Scottish seats. And Gordon Brown isn't as unpopular here as he is in London and the South-East, or the Midlands and English North-West, where most Labour-Tory marginals are.
Remember that the Lib Dems start with 12 seats in Scotland and the SNP start with 8. I think it's even money that the Lib Dems will end up with as many or more seats than the SNP will (say 14 or 15 each), although I wouldn't bet on the Tories winning more than 2 or 3.
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