Battle of Bannockburn

Just a quick post to remind anyone interested that today sees the Battle of Bannockburn by-election.

Results should be out some time tonight and although Labour (Violet Weird) is slight favourite, the SNP (Bill McDonald) could charge through to victory which would be a great coup in advance of the Euro elections on June 4th.

Also, as there have been a good few by-elections since May 2007, I'm going to try to rustle up some sort of trend analysis to draw out some regionwide, or even nationwide, expectations from it.

Or maybe I'll end up laying floorboards this weekend as originally planned, we'll see how it goes but a May 3rd 2 year anniversary 'special post' must surely be in the offing...

For now, though all eyes on Bannockburn!

Oh What a Circus

However bad the prospects are for the Labour party they seem destined to plumb new depths as 2009 pans out, as this eye-popping piece in The Spectator suggests.

The publication of MPs' expense receipts looks set to become the most damaging scandal of Gordon Brown's premiership:

The three unnamed backbenchers are said to have been placed on 'suicide watch' by Labour whips, who fear they might break down when the details of their excesses come out.

Two are understood to have had extra-marital affairs with other members of Parliament.

Not only are they believed to have shared hotel rooms during annual conference get-togethers and party away days but also to have double-claimed for the rooms on their expenses.

A lot has been made of the recent Freedom of Information requests and seemingly insatiable desire to find out what politicians have been using their expenses for. This has led to some MPs defensively labelling it all as a "circus".

Let me just say that I personally am not interested in the bed-hopping, the extra-marital affairs or what have you but there is no doubt that there will be an impact on poll ratings from all of this and, sad as it may be, that's what gets my juices flowing. The same could be said for the Nigel Griffiths story, I have no interest in who took the photos, if there are more or when more may be squeezed out from the shabby tale, but there will be a knock-on effect on who is elected at the next election.

Full transparency of the expenses system should not be there to reveal which politicians are fooling around behind closed doors but it should be there to reveal, to the last penny, what our elected representatives have been spending our money on.

If the two become perilously intertwined then that is genuinely unfortunate but should not stand in the way of full financial disclosure, however inconvenient it may be for individuals.

Don't blame the passing circus if you're the one who is monkeying around.

Political Betting

Well, since I missed out on what may ultimately prove to be the greatest bargain in the history of mankind, the RBS share price at 11p, I thought I would turn to Political Betting in order to make it big.

The potential success of this venture is wide open to criticism and/or acclaim so feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Here are the bets that will make me rich: (Or would have made me rich if I'd had the courage to place more than a couple of quid on each of them!)


£2 on the Tories winning 7 or more seats in Scotland at 3/1

£2 on the Tories winning Edinburgh South West at 9/4

£2 on the Tories winning Edinburgh South at 6/4

£2 on the year of the next election being 2009 at 9/2

£2 on the month of the next election being June 2009 at 16/1

£2 on the next leader of the Labour party being Alan Johnson

£3 on SNP winning Dunfermline, West & Fife at 7/1


What do you think? £15 down the drain or a path to riches?

Personally I think I will at least break even but I would say that. ANd before anyone asks, thisd website will not be changing its name to Tory Tactical Voting. I just couldn't say no to such good odds!

Gurkhas - A not so Scottish victory

Before everyone gets too carried away with the excellent result for the Gurkhas last night (and an excellent result for human decency), it may be worth pausing for reflection on who exactly the Labour MP 'rebels' were that allowed the vote to pass by 21 votes:

(lifted from Tory Bear)

Diane Abbott (Hackney North & Stoke Newington), Ian Cawsey (Brigg & Goole), Harry Cohen (Leyton & Wanstead), Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North), Paul Farrelly (Newcastle-under-Lyme), Mark Fisher (Stoke-on-Trent Central), Neil Gerrard (Walthamstow), Kate Hoey (Vauxhall), Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Joan Humble (Blackpool North & Fleetwood), Glenda Jackson (Hampstead & Highgate), John McDonnell (Hayes & Harlington), Shona McIsaac (Cleethorpes), Andrew Mackinlay (Thurrock), Gordon Marsden (Blackpool South), Bob Marshall-Andrews (Medway), Julie Morgan (Cardiff North), Dr Nick Palmer (Broxtowe), Stephen Pound (Ealing North), Nick Raynsford (Greenwich & Woolwich), Andy Reed (Loughborough), Linda Riordan (Halifax), Alan Simpson (Nottingham South), Andrew Smith (Oxford East), Paul Truswell (Pudsey), Keith Vaz (Leicester East), Mike Wood (Batley & Spen)

Unless my eyes deceive me, not a single Scottish Labour MP amongst them.

I must admit to being surprised. Clearly the north of border loyalty to Gordon Brown is still strong enough to prevent them doing the right thing.

And let's not be in any doubt, allowing the Gurkhas to stay in the UK is the right thing.

Premature Ejectulation

I know a lot of people are hoping for it and some are perhaps even already banking on it.

But I am going to stick my neck out and categorically say that this petition is going to grow arms and legs and will significantly contribute to the premature end of Brown's tenure as Prime Minister.

A different Labour leader will address the party's Autumn Conference.


(I will be putting money on it to kick off a series of small, fun political betting in the weeks and months ahead. That's if I can ever get the Ladbrokes website to work!)

A Nuclear Fallout

This blog has seen many a war of words in its time but it now may have its best ever.

A post that began as a pretty standard rinsing of the Lib Dems for some poor spelling soon spiralled into a right dong-dong over nuclear power in the comments section.

It would be remiss of me not to pass on some of the best bits of this engaging debate, in a totally objective manner, of course.

So, in the saintly green corner is Richard Thomson of Scots and Independent and in the nasty radioactively bright yellow corner is Neil Craig of A Place to Stand.

Neil got the ball rolling in comment #4:

Since the reason for rising leccy bills is because we have windmills rather than (1.7p a unit) nuclear power it is disgustingly cynical of the LDs to try to make hay with those who are suffering (& sometimes dying).

Richard took the bait in comment #5:

Neil - where on earth is nuclear power only 1.7p per unit?

Don't say France - it's subsidised to the hilt by the French taxpayer, rendering the actual cost per unit considerably higher...

The somewhat inevitable retort from Neil followed:

France.

Neil went on:

Perhaps you would produce the evidence that the French state, which exports 57 bn kwh of the stuff to Germany, Italy, Spain & Britain is so generously & secretly subsidising them.Who would have thunk (sic) they were willing to make such sacrifices to provide so much aid to poorere (sic) countries?Or perhaps you can't produce the evidence because it is merely yet another example of the total contempt for any form of honesty common to the eco-fascist movement.

Editing things a little bit from now on, the debate continued as follows:

RT - Now, tell me - does your 1.7p per unit cost take account of the cost of waste transportation and storage or plant decommissioning?

An anonymous commenter dangerously wandered into view but was quickly trampled over as the great debate raged on, starting off with some almost Confucius-like wisdom:

NC - what matters is that we know it cann (sic) be produced at 1.7p a unit becuse (sic) it is being produced at 1.7p a unit. You have produced no evidence whatsoever that the French figures are wrong.

RT - I freely admit I can't find a breakdown for French nuclear costs, and suspect given the nature of the relationship between EDF, the French Government and the French military nuclear programme, I'm extremely unlikely to get one.

What I can do is look elsewhere and form an opinion as to how credible the French figures are likely to be. Accordingly, here's some estimates for the 'levelised cost' of nuclear power i.e. the entire life-cycle cost per MWh:
BERR - £38MWh
Rice University - 65Eur MWh
MIT - 67Eur MWh
Royal Academy of Engineers - 41EUR MWh
Canadian Nuclear Association - 50Eur MWh
IEA - 18-40 Eur MWh
Chicago University 43-58 Eur MWh

Impressive, this guy should be Head of Research somewhere. Hang on...

Neil battered on regardless:

NC - You have produced no evidence whatsoever to dispute the figures & are still merely asserting that they must be fraudulent because you want them to be. Once again if something is being done & has been done for decades then, by definition, it can be done.

At least you aren't defending Mr Kidd's total dishonesty in saying that nuclear is the most expensive. Nonetheless that rematk was indicative of the total dishonest way in which the Luddite movement so often behaves.

It wavers a little off topic somewhat at this stage (ironic, since the original post was about spelling mistakes) and Richard, quite reasonably tries to close the debate down. Not that I'm doing him any favours by recreating a debate that any reader could just as easily scrolled down to read for her or his self!

And, to just round the sheer delight of the situation off, Advanced Media Watch has a link at the very bottom of the page with a headline that is about as unpalatable as one I have ever seen. I would recommend he removes it, sharpish. (And not because it has spelling mistakes in it.)


So, all in all, a wonderful debate and one I have followed avidly despite not jumping in myself. In the end, I scored it as a technical knock out for Richard Thomson, but what say you?

News Digest

Apparently Cockenzie power station is on fire. Which plant was it the Green party visited again? Those in green houses shouldn't throw sticks, but maybe they light fires? (Just joking, before the lawsuits come rolling in!)

A child has died in the US as a result of Swine Flu, one can't help but hear that he may be the first of many. The only silver lining that can be plucked is that pandemics greatly reduce out global footprint. Given that the number of Scottish cases is up to 23, I'll be twitchy taking the germ-ridden bus let alone a plane.

Nick Clegg seems to have had a rare win at PMQs today, his oft-used line of "If someone is prepared to die for this country they should be allowed to live in this country." seems to be the soundbite of the day, according to Tom Harris on Twitter (who has posted so many messages it is surely bordering on spam!)

Tory council leader has won a vote of confidence by 6 to 5. The casting vote? His own one. It doesn't augur well for the Tories in Edinburgh coming up to the election. Maybe I shouldn't have placed that bet on the blues winning 7 seats in 2010 after all.

It seems Labour are turning to Eddie Izzard to save their electoral skins. I doubt it'll work, we've known the party have been full of comedians for the past decade.

And, finally, a scorchingly good piece from Daniel Finkelstein in The Times. I can't help but feel he is letting the nihilistic British public off the hook but his drawing comparisons between Old Sarum circa 1802 and Erith and Thamestead 2009 is simply excellent. It's pieces like this that ensure newspapers need to worry about the threat of bloggers. Cream rises to the top.


PS Bloggers meet-up, tonight, 7pm, Albanach, Royal Mile. Look out for the guy in the green jumper.

The Real Deal?

Per The Times:

Radical plans to give the Scottish government control of up to half of the income tax raised north of the Border and most of the revenue from North Sea oil and gas are being considered by economists advising the Calman Commission.

An interesting use of language there. It is "being considered by economists advising the Calman Commission"? There's a couple of degrees of separation there from the actual decision-makers I would say. So it's not Calman that is considering it, just some economists on the fringes.

Hopefully I am just being cynical, hopefully Sir Kenneth Calman is giving the full commission glare to the idea of Scotland taking control of its income tax and its corporate tax revenues, being responsible for the income corresponding to the money you spend is surely a devolution no-brainer after these 10 years that have passed. The accountability it would bring to Holyrood would be a shot in the arm for devolved politics north of the border.

The proposal mentioned in The Times is a paler comparison to the Reform Scotland proposal but it's still a welcome move in the right direction.

And even if Calman adopts a damp squib of a conclusion from his Commission, the more these stories crop up of what Scotland could do, the more the public will wet its appetite for taking more control of her affairs.

Brown's Moral Compass

I am sure everyone remembers that clever phrase being used, the 'moral compass' that would guide Gordon Brown in his new role as Prime Minister.

It must have been going haywire over the last turbulent two years and, on current evidence, it remains so.

In Benedict Brogan's blog, an expenses fiasco coming up in the Summer was heavily trailed:

"A former Cabinet minister, admittedly no admirer of Mr Brown, told me earlier he feels ashamed to be a Labour MP. The expenses thing is about to get nasty. Nick Brown has told the PM to expect a number of by-elections, or worse, when receipts are published in July."

I'm not too sure what the "or worse" is meant to mean. Perhaps the intolerant Alan Duncan is to be put in charge of sorting out the miscreants and will be embarking on a murdering spree after he's finished with the runner-up of Miss USA.

But what I don't get is this. Gordon Brown now knows about this, it has been factored in that Labour MPs will be resigning in July and I have no doubt that Brown either knows who the guilty parties are or has the means to find out.

If the PM's moral compass was working properly, he wouldn't hesitate in kicking the individiuals out of the Labour party to set the correct standard.

Allowing them to cling on for a few more months salary and giving his party a head start in by-election planning merely adds credence to the charge that Labour's sense of purpose and direction is sadly lacking.

Jobs at any cost

What is the main reason for having the NHS? To care for sick people.

What is the main reason for having schools? To educate children.

What is the main reason for having trains and buses? To move people around the towns, cities and country at large.

All quite easy, yes? Elementary even?

What if I asked what the main reason is for having nuclear weapons?

Well, according to Iain Gray, the answer is to create jobs if his recent FMQs appearance is anything to go by.

Were we to cancel Trident, we would cut 11,000 jobs in the west of Scotland. Is that really the First Minister's brilliant idea to save the Scottish economy?

Is that it? Is that Iain Gray's full-throated defence of the new £25bn wave of nuclear weapons? Doesn't he think that with that money at our disposal we could rustle up a few tens of thousands of jobs in other areas of the economy, like renewables or engineering?

It seems to me that Labour are still ducking the issue of nuclear weapons in Scotland, just like when Jack McConnell ran away from reporters who wished to asked the then First Minister his thoughts on the issue. Can you imagine Alex Salmond running away? (I'll resist the obvious joke here...)

The Labour Government is clearly putting all of its eggs in one basked when they set Faslane as the UK's only submarine base. Not that I am suggesting it is a political move, Faslane is the most suitable location for the vessels and it probably wasn't the toughest decision the MOD ever had to take. But boy does it play into the SNP's hands.

It's grade A, electoral red meat for the SNP (and the other parties that oppose nuclear weapons). The country is running out of money, there is no realistic scenario when we'd actually fire one of these exorbitantly expensive weapons and public opinion is heavily set against the UK position.

They need to go.

Lib Dem's Whining Here

I received a "Focus on Leith" Lib Dem newsletter today, pretty much confirming that the party will be focussing on winning Edinburgh North and Leith as one of their target seats after all. Good news for Mark Lazarowicz, I fear.

The newsletter is all nice and fluffy, as you would expect from the Lib Dems but I was taken by some rather abysmal English in the "Labour have nothing left to offer on the economy" section.

It read "Local Lib Dem candidate Kevin Lang said "Every week, I people with people who struggling with rising utility bills"."

You people with people Kevin? Good on you son. Two pretty shocking typos in one line is rather poor, particularly if you're asking to be elected to Westminster. I know it's not The Scotsman or The Times the Libs are producing but still, a wee proof-read wouldn't have gone amiss.

And in case you think I'm being picky (which I am, but I don't care), it's far from being an isolated incident. Indeed the font 16 headline on the freepost cut-out section has the headline "I want join Kevin's winning team!".

I'm not sure if jumping up and down like a caveman when saying it is optional or mandatory.


So pretty unimpressive, not that I was ever gong to give the Lib Dems a fair crack of the whip. If Kevin Lang wants to win Edinburgh North and Leith, he'll have to do a heck of a lot better than peopling with people.

The First Meme

Well, I don't usually have much time for things like memes but as Tom Harris was kind enough to 'tag' me, as it's only a couple of degrees of separation from the origin Iain Dale and as I have been jointly tasked to clean behind the oven tonight, I thought I'd get on with it.

First Job:
Washing dishes in a local Indian restaurant in Kirkintilloch aged 16. I was paid £1.70 an hour, double time on Christmas Day. I used to wake up in the middle of the night thinking I was still at work and actually washing the air with my hands. Character building my parents called it, child labour is the term these days I think...

First Real Job:
Trainee auditor with PriceaterhouseCoopers. Cracking company and will always be grateful for the training given and experiences gained.

First Role in Politics:
Well, blogging I suppose. A fairly organic start to understanding how Politics works, I have half a toe dipped into my local branch which has been great. Shame I don't have enough time in the week to dive into it head-first though.

First Car:
A mini. Not the new fancy ones, but an old E-Reg that I bought off my aunt for goodness knows how much. £20 and a punnet of grapes probably. Imagine riding what feels like a fancy go-kart on the M6 and you'll understand...

First Record:
Lightning Seeds, Jollification. Yeah, onto the next question, pronto...

First Football Match:
Celtic vs Rangers, 1989 or so. I think MacAvennie scored twice, not that I could see much from the stands.

First Concert:
T in the Park 1995. I was a skinny, 15 year old human pinball during Prodigy. Still chuffed that I managed to lose, and find again, both shoes that I was wearing. I think I left before the opening number, bruised and battered, and went to see Divine Comedy or something more gentle.

First Country Visited:
Spain, Majorca. Sun and sand, very forgettable. (Except for the topless sunbathing. Hey, I was only 12!)

First TV Appearance:
Songs of Praise when they came to our local church.

First Political Speech:
Unless ranting in the pub with my mates counts, I can't really answer this one.

First Girlfriend/Boyfriend:
Jenny Fox. I was Bill Hickock to her Calamity Jane in the school play. Unfortunately I didn't live up to the part in real life.

First Encounter with a Famous Person:
Honestly can't think of any. Meeting Alyn Smith at SNP Conference last weekend was a definite highlight. Great guy. It's not really a "stuck in the lift with David Beckham" kind of story though, is it?

First Brush With Death:
I'm the cautious type, not had much worse than a skint knee.

First House/Flat Owned:
A lovely wee place in Abbeyhill, Edinburgh. Totally forgot that you don't get any furniture with a new house though and spent the first night on a cold, wooden floor. Still a pretty magical experience though, owning your own place.


First Film Seen at a Cinema:
Crikey, I haven't the faintest idea.

First Time on the Radio
Nope, I stayed away from the Tiger Tims and Scotty McLoo's in my time. Maybe I'll get my break on Leith FM before too long.

First Politician I Met:
See the famous person answer above, though I think I chatted with Pete Wishart before that. About blogging no less. Another special moment from the weekend. (Yes, I really was that starstruck throughout, sad isn't it?)

First Book I Remember Reading:
Roald Dahl - Matilda. Excellent.

First Visit to the London Palladium:
That one is still ahead of me. I saw Les Miserables a good few times down London way, and in New York front row in Broadway for $10. I was the only one not dressed to the nines.

First Election:
The 2007 election is the only one I really invested myself in. Was pretty bummed when I thought Labour were going to nick it. Stirling and Bruce Crawford will always have a special place in my heart. Hopefully attend a count in 2010 or 2011, looks like fun. Sort of.


Excellent, that was a heck of a lot better than cleaning behind a stove.

I nominate Malc in the Burgh, Kezia Dugdale, James of Two Doctors, Caron Lindsay and Ross of Holyrood Patter (a cunning ruse to tempt him out of retirement!)

I had the great honour of being in the room when a team of bankers were told there had been a policy shift whereby taxis around Edinburgh were not permissible and only bus receipts would be accepted.

Perhaps there were a few Tories amongst the despondent many who truly believed in Thatcher's mantra: "any man who finds himself on a bus at the age of 26 can account himself a failure"

Don't say we bankers aren't making the ultimate sacrifice...!

Internet Monitoring

Picture the scene: A car speeds along a town road at 100mph, plows through a group of people, bashes into a couple of cars and then speeds off.

There's a trail of devastation, it's all caught on CCTV and there are numerous eye-witnesses.

However, all that can be made of the guilty party was that he was a man in his 30s and had a blue Ford Escort. That's right, there were no registration plates to tie the crime to a specific individual.

Cut now to the internet, an environment where crimes just as harrowing as the above are committed on a daily basis; underage grooming of kids by paedophiles, credit card fraud, people trafficking, horrific porn industry and so much more. In reality however, unlike the imaginary scene above, there are no registration plates available to track who is committing crimes. A ludicrous lack of regulation means people get away scot-free with the darkest of deeds.

It's all just as hit and run as the picture painted above as computers are bought and sold on a completely anonymous basis.

I fully agree that the "if you've got nothing to hide then you should have everything on display" philosophy is far too woolly to be taken seriously on its own but that doesn't mean we still don't need a better way of monitoring what goes on in cyberspace.

My suggestion would be that computers should be licensed by an equivalent of the DVLA. All IP addresses have a one-to-one link to a specified owner and if you wish to sell your computer then you have to ensure the correct forms are filled out, just as you would if selling a car. That way, anything untoward that happens online has a clear audit trail that the authorities can use to track down the perpetrator.

What is being proposed by Jacqui Smith isn't really close to that suggestion but it's still a reasonable step to take.

After all, in terms of potential damage, the Dell is mightier than the Ford.

Edinburgh East - Postal Votes Scandal

I barely know where to start.

LABOUR members have demanded the result of the Edinburgh East candidate selection process be overturned after accusing officials of presiding over a postal votes scandal.

The poll was won by former councillor and housing convener Sheila Gilmore earlier this month. She beat lawyer Catriona Munro by a single vote.

But 15 members of the party, including one of the two scrutineers, have written to Labour's ruling National Executive Committee, condemning the result as "tainted".

Labour needs to really put an end to all of these postal vote 'irregularities'. Birmingham, Glenrothes, Erith and Thamestead and now Edinburgh East. I am sure there have been more.

I don't envisage lessons will be learned given this comment: "Of course, we will look at the letter but there is no evidence to suggest that this was anything but a well-run selection process."

Another smoothing conclusion with anything untoward being swept underneath the carpet. Who said New Labour was dead?

A rather tawdry defection

I've always been of the opinion that defections are a rather tawdry affair, more to do with personal gain than any principled stance.

Examples abound, councillors and MPs up and down the land who have had a higher chance of winning their seats with the new party than they did with the old. A bit like Italy in World War 2, it's more about picking the winner than assessing one's true beliefs about who are the good guys.

And so to Eastleigh where the Labour PPC, Daniel Clarke, has defected to the Liberal Democrats.
I knew before I even looked into the constituency that Daniel had no chance of winning the seat in 2010 and so it proved. Chris Huhne is the current MP for the area, probably well placed to reward Daniel for his glowing resignation letter:

I have found myself thinking that Chris Huhne is right on issues as varied as Trident, Climate Change, the economy and civil liberties whilst the government is wrong on them.
Rather than standing against him, I will be voting for Chris at the next General Election.

It was strange to see on Daniel's blog from October 2008 that Huhne is a man that he "doesn't often agree with". Turned full circle in a fairy remarkable timeframe, no?

And how about this quote from Daniel Clarke, also from October 2008:

"The fact that so many PPCs have resigned just a short time before a likely election also suggests that the Tories are not vetting their candidates very effectively, maybe they are just desperate for anyone they can get."

Hmm, quite.

Mind you, given that Chris Huhne has a mere 568 majority over the resurgent Tories, I can't help but wonder if Daniel was even the architect of his own defection?

After all, Daniel could have quietly slipped away from the nomination but instead he chose to sing Huhne's name from the rooftops, a platform that Eastleigh Labour party members awarded him in good faith. What must they make of Daniel now I wonder?

Tawdry I tell you, never trust a defector.

Swine Flu comes to Scotland

It's outrageous, the authorities knew about Swine Flu since March 18th but have not told us until now meaning we have missed out on 5 weeks of irrational panic. We deserve answers!

More seriously, I was intrigued to hear Channel 4's opening lines on their news show this afternoon: "Is this a fuss over nothing or the start of a global pandemic?".

Well, are they our only choices? There seems to be a huge grey area in the middle that isn't being considered.

The news that Swine Flu is in Scotland (why didn't they say the UK?) is concerning, of course but the couple have very mild symptoms and there seems to be little concern from Nicola Sturgeon, the Health Minister, who is no doubt up to speed with developments.

So, chances are this Swine Flu will amount to nothing but any global health disaster will start with a few cases so a worst case scenario does need to be adopted by the World Health Organisation. This allows the rest of us to be merely concerned rather than full-on worried, let alone panicked.

But, in the interests of full disclosure, it is interesting to note that what was originally thought to be Swine Flu in 1918 turned out to be Bird Flu and ended up killing 50-100million people worldwide.

As I say though, it's probably nothing.

Scottish Independence - Still a long way to go

The results of the YouGov poll that relate to independence are heartening for the SNP, they may not delight but they will not dim the determination of the Nationalists ranks. "There to be won" is an appropriate phrase for a party that claims to "have what it takes".

Do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate this new partnership?

I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 37%

I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 52%

Don’t know - 11%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Conservative Party were to win the next General Election, would this make you more likely or less likely to back Scottish independence?

Much more likely to back Scottish independence - 24%

Slightly more likely - 11%

Slightly less likely - 3%

Much less likely to back Scottish independence - 3%

No difference – I would back Scottish independence anyway - 14%

No difference – I would NOT back Scottish independence anyway - 34%

Don’t know - 11%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That's all very well and good but let's be honest, there isn't going to be a referendum next year. The somewhat panto-esque show of unity from the unionist parties earlier this year in voting against any such referendum for the lifetime of this parliament put paid to that, despite the in-favour Wendy Alexanders and John Farquar Munros et al being amongst their ranks and still capable of an about turn.

The SNP's most plausible path to an independent Scotland lies with accepting the full fiscal powers suggestion from the Calman Commission, running a devolved Scotland effectively for the next 5 years and then taking advantage of favourable opinion polling around 2014 which will be a significant improvement on today's showing, mostly based on an unfamiliar Tory Government that has no real mandate north of the border but also a sense of adventure and confidence instilled in the Scottish people as we put the recession behind us.

So a heartening poll result today but only a babystep forward towards the Nationalists ultimate prize.

YouGov Poll on Independence!

Well, no, there isn't actually because the SNP didn't ask YouGov to ask the 1,020 individuals in its recent poll the question.

Or maybe they did and didn't like the answer?

Either way, it's a bit strange I reckon. Does this represent pessimism about the likelihood of a 2010 referendum or just an innocent omission from an excellent poll result...?

Osama Saeed - A little bit more

Well, since I've witnessed hit after hit from the Associated Press and DC Thomson sniffing and slurrying around looking for more news on the Osama Saeed 'story' in The Times this morning, I thought I'd try and bring some pre-emptive balance to wherever it goes next.

To recap, the Quilliam Foundation have urged the SNP to drop Osama Saeed as their candidate for Glasgow Central after remarks he made regarding a Caliph leader for Muslims around the world. (Remarkably timed given that Osama was confirmed as the candidate only last Friday.) I put a wee blog post up about this morning, pretty much saying it was dog-whistle hit-and-run politics of the worst kind.

So, the Quilliam Foundation, what's all that about then? I thought I'd do some digging.

Well, Quilliam director Ed Husain is reported to be a card-carrying Labour Party member. His organisation received £1m from the Labour government last year. The intervention therefore appears to be more of a measure of how worried Labour are about Glasgow Central. Ed Husain is on record (Holyrood magazine) saying that Mohammad Sarwar should be a role model to Scottish Muslims rather than Osama Saeed. Mohammad Sarwar's son is contesting Glasgow Central for Labour.

There is more but I don't want to go down a path where I am writing the very stuff that I am objecting to.

So all in all, I reckon we can expect to hear a lot more from either side, the SNP's Scottish Islamic Foundation and Labour's Quilliam Foundation. I just hope in between all the media jousting there's a lot of good work getting done; this morning's example in The Times doesn't bode well though.

Friday Blog Love

I am sure everyone has had those moments that they still look back on and wonder why they let the words tumble out of their silly mouths. For me, one that regularly springs to mind was in the back of a London cab where friends and I were discussing the upcoming Iraq War (note the coded defence that I was pretty young at the time)

A friend was saying how silly it was that we were going to go to war over weapons that hadn't been found and I, goodness knows why, leapt to the defence of Tony Blair saying that we couldn't possibly know what he knows and should just go with it, no questions asked. Naive, heavens, I know that now.

Even if the WMD had been found though, my friend should have been allowed to speak her mind without me jumping down her throat. I like to think that one episode has kept me in check and I can hear out the intelligent, the inspiring and the boring with equal respect and patience.

Conclusion? Everyone is welcome to their say.

It is from this opening gambit that I turn to Gina Davidson's thoughts on blogging, as published in yesterday's Edinburgh Evenings News:

The kind of self-important losers who feel that their every spit and cough is something that someone in the digital void will want to know about. It's a huge assumption but it must be true, otherwise bloggers would just keep a diary and therefore stop inflicting the dismal banalities of their lives on strangers who stumble across their musings by accident.

Don't hold back Gina, tell us what you really think!

The writer is, of course, welcome to that point of view but people who criticse blogs are the same as those who complain about TV programmes when they are perfectly capable of turning over to another channel or (perish the thought) turn the tv off altogether. It's odd to moan about what people are saying when you are under no obligation to listen in.

The same applies to blogs. This recent philosophy that one should only have a blog if one is an expert in a certain field is bizarre. I am an expert on nothing but I am still allowed to have an opinion on everything. And people are welcome to engage and challenge those opinions just as I do on other blogs.

Blogging has helped change a few opinions I have had for the better, it has helped me get involved with a local political party and it has helped me strike up a few good friendships. My English has markedly improved too. No harm there, surely?

Gina Davidson may well decry the blogosphere as being filled with "blathering idiocy" but in the days of democratic deficits and communities in crisis, if it brings our politics, our people and even our world closer together, then it can't be all bad.

And on that note, now is a good time for a reminder of Malc's Bloggers' Meet-Up next Wednesday at The Albanach. I can't account for any blathering idiots that may turn up (myself included) but I would at least urge all to let them say their piece.

"A Disgraceful Smear"

This story from The Times is really quite shocking:

An organisation set up to counter Islamic extremism in Britain has accused a Scottish National Party parliamentary candidate of being “sectarian and divisive” and alleged that he is using the Nationalists as a front to campaign for his radical views.

The Quilliam Foundation, a think-tank set up by two former activists to foster better relations between Islam and the West, is urging Alex Salmond to drop Osama Saeed, formally adopted last week as the SNP's general election candidate in Glasgow Central, unless he changes his views.

I don't know if I have a lower opinion of The Times for running it or the Quilliam foundation for pushing it. The latter may have a genuine grievance about the level of funding the Scottish Islamic Foundation (fronted by SNP Osama) attracts but this is the wrong way to go about that.

At the crux of the matter is this talk of a 'Caliphate', a leader who can represent the Muslims on the world stage. An entirely reasonable suggestion whether it be in theory or even in practise. I've blogged about it before here (in, if I may say so, what I think is one of my best posts):

It is for this reason that Osama Saeed wrote in The Guardian about a Caliphate for the Muslim world. A Caliph, quite simply, would be someone who can stand up to the EU and stand up to Corporate America and fight for the interests of the Muslim world who for so long have felt little more than the crushing heel of Western dominance.

I met Osama Saeed at the SNP Conference, he was one of a select few people that I had distinctly planned on stalking before feigning a surprised "Oh, hello there! Let me introduce myself...", not that I actually got the chance as he kindly turned up to the bloggers breakfast. I also attended his 'adoption night' on the Friday evening where numerous people, the First Minister included, talked about him in the warmest of tones.

In my personal opinion Osama Saeed is, without a shadow of a doubt, a super nice guy, sharp as a tack and intellectually I would say a good 20 to 30 years ahead of many of the rest of us. He is a top, top-class Westminster candidate. (It's a shame he's up against a millionaire's son in Glasgow Central but I still have him down as winning the seat despite that inconvenience.)

Times jourmalists and Quilliam foundations will have to catch up with the way the world is going, adopting new world-altering ideas, discussing them maturely and allowing for all people of all backgrounds to have their say. Splashing smear stories in hit-and-run articles is not the way forward.

The days of a select few white men making decisions for the rest of the world needs to come to a close and if a Caliphate is the best way to bring that forward then I, for one, am perfectly relaxed about that.

+ + + SNP power ahead in poll + + +

From The Herald:

There has been a 20-point swing on Westminster standings from Labour to the SNP. Far from facing mid-term blues, SNP ministers are stretching their lead at Holyrood. And the party's leader, Iain Gray, has plumbed disapproval levels not reached by his predecessor Wendy Alexander.


Westminster:

Labour 32% (-5)
SNP 30% (+3)
Tory 21%
Lib Dem 13%
Other 5%

Constituency Vote:
SNP 37% (+4)
Labour 30% (-2)
Tory 15% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (-3)
Other 5% (+3)

Regional Vote:
SNP 37% (+7)
Labour 28% (-4)
Tory 15%
Lib Dem 13%
Other 7%


Sample size was 1,020 people. Not insignificant by any stretch of the imagination!

Bridges of Adjacent County

I like cross-party agreement, it gives me a nice warm feeling that an issue is well worth considering and that real work is being done. The Scottish Budget 2009, for example, was a wonderful day coming as it did with an unspeakably chummy 127 cross-party votes to the Greens miserly 2.

But now it is the Greens turn for some cross-party support, albeit support coming just from myself.

The Forth Road Bridge is becoming a hotter and hotter potato the closer the day comes that actual money will have to be paid for it (yes, that's someone's cue to say that £xm has already been spent).

The recent and entirely reasonable point made by the SNP that we can't waste £25bn on Trident is compromised by the similar concern that we can't waste £3bn on a bridge that is similary unnecessary.

No, I'm with the Greens and Two Doctors on this one. No new bridge is required, we should fix the existing one and I'd happily hold a placard to help make that so.

But I've said this before so what's new?

Well, if, as recent news reports would have us believe, Shirley-Anne Somerville is to be the unofficial Minister for Forth Road Bridges then it is worth checking for any conflicts of interest.

Shirley-Anne lives in Dalgety Bay (Fife) and is an MSP for the Lothians (Lothians). What bigger conflict of interest than that! I'd love to spend billions on a special new highway into work every morning too, I can't imagine it'd be the cleverest use of taxpayers money. After all, I live at the Shore and work at the far end of Princes St, the buses have been doing an excellent job of getting me to work every day, why would we need another mode of transport.

Hang on, I've lost that consensus feeling with the Greens haven't I? Oh well...

£2,000 car wreckage scheme

I like it, I really do. It's worked in Germany and it should boost the car sector a bit, tunes of 40% have been bandied about but time will tell.

There does seem to be some confusion out there as people are saying that we'll be boosting Toyota and Volkswagen and, yes, some of the £2,000 will be spent on those cars but this is chiefly an environmental policy, the fiscal stimulus for UK car dealerships is merely a bonus.

I do think that people driving around in 10 year old bangers are not the type to suddenly go and splash out on a new car but if there are such people in Germany then there's bound to be such people here.

One of the few highlights of the budget for sure.

The two stools budget

I do have some sympathy with John Swinney's digging of his heels in the position of Scotland's spending cuts.

For me it comes down to this excellent quote from KPMG Director:

"In trying to combine support for the economy with reassurances that the public finances will be brought under control, the Chancellor risks falling between two stools."

That's just it. Yvette Cooper was still trying to say there was more going into the NHS than ever before on Newsnight rather than face up to the 'efficiency savings' that are on the way. I have sympathy for Yvette Cooper too, ten years of having the luxury of record investment for the NHS as public spending ballooned must have been great in post-budget analysis. The NHS is better for it, too but those days are gone and it's time to let go of the mantra that Labour will outspend the Tories.

So which is it to be, spending our way out of the economy or a tightening of the belt? I'm still not too sure. The 50% tax rate will make barely a dent in the public borrowing black hole and the "ludicrously optimistic" assumptions for recovery are far too dodgy to provide any comfort.

For as long as Labour down south continue to take credit for increased spending and providing a stimulus, Swinney in the north will have two-stools-worth of legs to stand on when he complains about cuts.

Labour's Budget Hypocrisy

There's far too much to talk about on the Budget. Indeed, on the day of the event I actually think it's best for bloggers to step back and let the independent economic geniuses work out the detail and tell us what is really going some time on Friday.

But one consideration I just can't let go, one glaring anomaly that I just can't let pass without comment is this. Labour have broken a manifesto commitment.

Now, let me be crystal clear, that is not a problem in its own right, not at all, I am all for the 50% tax rate but it's the rank hypocrisy of what they say in Opposition in Scotland and what they do in power in London that boils the blood.

It has annoyed me for two years now that Labour would focus on whether a Government initiative broke a manifesto pledge or not rather than, you know, actually talking about the merits or otherwise of what was being proposed. Too busy with the amateur dramatics of ripping up manifestos to actually engage in policy discussions and adopt an adult stance.

I shouldn't really care that much. People aren't stupid, they can see that the SNP couldn't write off student loans, they can see that the SNP couldn't bring in Local Income Tax, just as they can see that unexpected events have led the Labour Government to raise tax for the richest in the country.

The hypocrisy too is glaringly obvious, just as it was when Scottish Labour screamed bloody murder when Edinburgh Council proposed closing schools and then one year later Labour-led Glasgow Council did the exact same thing and when Labour castigated Alex Salmond for being an MP and MSP and then Margaret Curran stepped forward to also fill those two roles.

There is no humility when events lead them to similar positions that the SNP has taken, no apologising for their shrill tones when they had earlier adopted an opposition to a current stance; their brass neck is as bright red as the rose on their logo.

Oh, and as if that wasn't bad enough, Labour have a stonking Westminster majority so can do as they please and the SNP have a wafer thin Holyrood minority lead so constantly require, not even a two, but a three-party agreement just to get anything passed.

At least former leading Labour bloggers have the good sense to reduce their budget analysis to comparing a couple of website headlines, rather than face up to the reality of the situation.

Anyway, as I say, we'll find out everything else that's really going on some time Friday. I'm sure it'll be abundantly clear that the 3.5% statistic is bonkers by then too.

Budget 2009 - If wishing made it so...

In the world of Banking and Finance, where I am lucky enough to work, any assumptions that are built into forecasts and budgets are crucial. Get them wrong, even by a fraction, and your data becomes unreliable.

It is for this sole reason that I simply cannot have any confidence in Alastair Darling's budget for 2009. To forecast growth to begin before the year is out is wrong, it's just flat out wrong. The markets have factored in a recession well into 2010 and the vast majority of economists predict a long recession too.

We have, of course, seen this before when in the Autumn of 2008, the Chancellor made the laughable and completely unbelievable assertion that the recession would end by the middle of this year. Palpable nonsense as we all know now, just as we did then.

At the crux of this is the election scheduled for May 2010. Of course it would be very convenient for the Labour party if this recession was to be over before then but facing up to reality extends way beyond Gordon Brown and his electoral fortunes.

Such delusion impacts on the details of this budget and consequently impacts on our jobs, it impacts on our schools and hospitals, it impacts on funds to fight Global Warming and it impacts on our taxes and the taxes of the next generation.

By pushing forward any reasonable expectation for when the recession will end, Labour have wrecked their chances of winning the next election. And they're dragging us all down with them too.

In other news...

At some point today, it is well worth considering the pickle that Ed Balls is in.

He stands accused of making up meetings to ensure Ken Boston was made the scapegoat for the SATs crisis of last year.

Ken Boston is giving evidence on the matter today.

If that is the case, Balls must surely resign as a Minister.


Anyway, back to listening to the Budget.

Budget 2009

God love him. Really.

Only the hardest of hearts couldn't have enormous sympathy for Alastair Darling today. Top economists are advocating huge spending and other top economists are advocating massive cuts. Even the Chancellor's boss has said we must spend our way out of recession and yet Darling has heavily trailed some £15 bn of cuts, set to be announced in today's Budget speech.

He is between a Northern Rock and a hard place, all set to the backdrop of a Draper/McBride scandal that has taken too long to shake off. It doesn't help that the main target of that smear campaign, George Osbourne, is the man that will try to (probably successfully) take Labour's spending plans to task in rebuttal.

George's past performances on such days have been excellent and there's no reason to suggest he won't come up with the goods today. The only stumbling block for the supposed next Chancellor of the Exchequer is the distinct lack of expectations that we have for today.

We simply cannot say with any certainty what will happen today and so I once again seek for the silver lining. Times are tough, the air of uncertainty hangs over all of us like a thick, black smoke and we feel utterly rudderless.

So let's be honest, in terms of suspense, days like today simply cannot be faulted.

A right Royal stimulus

Happy Birthday to the Queen. I had no idea it was her birthday until someone mentioned it to me just now and I still don't even know if it is her real birthday or the other one. Either way, I reckon the Queen could hold the keys to economic recovery.

She should stand down as the monarch.

For one, she has been there way too long and Prince Charles seems to be going a little crazy without being made King after waiting, oooh, his whole life. Secondly, the much-needed outpouring of joy and optimism across the country would be epic.

Imagine the sales of Union Jack tea towels and mugs with ear-shaped handles as King Charles got ready to take the throne? The "Yes He Did" t-shirt sales and the "Queen as Mustard" oven gloves (I don't know, thinking on the hoof here). Whatever, it would transform our retail figures.

Either that or we should opt for plan B, cash in on Buckingham and Holyrood Palaces, sell them off as flats and donate the money to RBS.

Many happy returns Ma'am. Sort of.

Yet another by-election

Apparently it is common knowledge so I'll dispense with the 'breaking news' nonsense but Bill Kidd is due to be standing down as a Glasgow councillor in the next few weeks, sparking yet another council by-election.

Don't forget, the by-election Battle of Bannockburn is April 30th. Can the SNP afford to lose!?

Every £3bn helps

I have to admit right from the start that I'll be reining in some of my darker thoughts on Tesco. Perhaps such animosity is totally unjustified, particularly as I don't really mind Sainsbury's or Asda, but there's something about the stale, unexciting atmosphere of a Tesco store that really gets me down. Food lacking in any real character, particularly the joyless array of fruit and veg on offer just screams 'profit margin' whenever I am there.

So that, coupled with the tax avoiding, supplier squashing practises of the company makes me avoid the store as much as I possibly can. I don't even want to start (again) on the scripted lines that shop workers have to go through. Poor Jim, where is he now...

But what are we to make of a company that makes £3bn when the rest of us are facing a recession? Fair play to them or do we have a duty to change the rules?

For me, as long as Britain is a country of progressive taxation then, at the very least, we can stop building Tesco stores where the local community is so passionately against it.

Cheeky Banter

Well, it's nice to see that A Leaky Chanter is getting it thoroughly in the neck this morning courtesy of The Times. That said, I don't think that the website will be taken down, nor do I think that it comes close to the vitriol that was planned for 'Red Rag'.

I also must confess I was taken in by the 'Alex Salmond' twitter, believing it to be real. The first line I read was "I am considering swapping Susan Boyle for Sandi Thom'. I thought it was pretty funny actually. Then I read the rest of the 'Tweets' and knew what was really going on as the humour quickly dried up.

But will Tom Harris' name be tarnished by linking to this website? I reckon he might be, just slightly.

Check out this quote from the Labour MP:

HAVING become a recent convert to Twitter, I was intrigued to see that none other than the Richt Honourable Alex Salmond is a Twitterer too (no, I said Twitter…)
I discovered this gem through a rather fine blog of which I’ve only just become aware, A Leaky Chanter

"a rather fine blog". Interesting choice of compliment. I can't say I've seen a single post that I would describe as "rather fine".

You are judged by the company you keep and it's not the first time I've raised an eyebrow at Tom's choice of link.

But overall, I do suspect there is little in this story. I think Leaky Chanter's crime is not attempts at smear, just that it's a little bit naff and distinctly lacking in quality. Like the Shock Jock Republican radio stations, it was only ever going to preach to the converted.

Brown - "Can't cut our way out of recession"

Ok, so it's back to Maryland after all!

I am, miraculously, back in time to watch the 6 o'clock news and catch a snippet of Gordon Brown talking up Wednesday's budget.

The Chancellor and the Prime Minister seem to be singing from different hymn sheets. While Darling says there are £15bn of cuts ahead, Gordon Brown says we "can't cut our way out of recession". Remarkable, and playing right into the SNP's hands just when I thought the Nationalists were going to have to put their 'Scotland is getting short-changed' argument to bed.

If Gordon Brown is saying on Monday we need to spend our way out of recession, then he can't very well cut Scotland's budget by £1bn on Wednesday.

This week should be a fascinating encounter.

Leaving Maryland Behind

I remain unconvinced by the oft-repeated comparison made between Scotland and Maryland. I think it is a very astute comparison to make but given just how far behind the world the UK is in terms of public debt, even way behind America, I don't know if we are comparing apples with apples.

For those not in the know, the charge is that Scotland is having £1bn of spending cut while Maryland (population of similar size to north of the border) is receiving approximately £2bn as part of the US stimulus package. A £3bn differential and yet we have to remain internationally competitive.

As I say though, I am not convinced. Or if I was ever convinced I am tired of hearing that line of attack. It was used again in Salmond's speech yesterday and I have to confess to groaning slightly.

Wednesday will be a painful budget and the lion's share of blame does sit with the Labour Government but if the SNP are to take full political advantage, they'll need a different soundbite than Maryland.

Infinity-gate

Great to see that Brian Taylor has done the honourable thing and apologised over infinity-gate, as suggested earlier on this blog.

I wonder if the Scotsman journalist will do the same?

Alice Mahon

The recent polls must have been painful viewing for Labour, I think we can now say with absolute certainty that a June 4th election is now not going to happen. I had deluded myself that there was an outside chance it was on the cards but from reading some blogs out there I am pleased to see I am not the only one with such a tendency, but more on that later.

I had wondered if 26%, Labour's showing in these polls, represented their 'base load', the tranche of Labour supporters who would turn out and vote for the party regardless of what went on. Let's be honest, things can't be getting much worse for Gordon Brown, although the budget is coming at the perfect time to reverse the slide.

I then realised that these polling figures don't take into account the resignation of Alice Mahon from the Labour party. A member for 50 years, Alice finally decided she had seen enough and walked away from the party that she served 18 years for as an MP.

So when I talk of a Labour delusion, I talk of their reaction to this news story.

Paul Burgin states that Alice's actions amount to little more than "a huff" and she should have "fought her corner". I don't know where she would have started this fight from her lowly position given her disgust was with the very top of the Labour tree.

Chris Paul thinks that the media have shown a bias in their coverage of Alice's resignation. It is about as crystal clear a story as one can get given the resignation letter is in full view of the media. Regardless, trying to spin the story into a different angle other than taking one square on the chin is foolish.

One bizarre comment over at the ironically titled 'Stand Firm' is that Alice Mahon resigned because of her age! I think that particular blogger may need to read that resignation letter again.

And then Tom Harris jumbles talks of a rather patronising "soft spot" he had for Alice, going on to say that he doesn't think she should "abandon her comrades" and her resignation is less significant than sitting MPs crossing from Tory to Labour in the past. I struggle to see the logic.

It is this "abandonment" mentality that really strikes me. It is clearly Alice Mahon who feels abandoned, betrayed even, by a party that has changed in all recognition from the one the former MP joined 50 years ago.

On policy terms you can take your pick from nuclear weapons to foreign wars; from the welfare state to privatising the Royal Mail; all backed up by a thoroughly anti-democraric sentiment as we see from Airdrie & Shotts to Erith & Thamesmead.

Yes, people come and people go in political parties for all sorts of reasons but Labour need to really take stock of this particular resignation given Alice's complaints go right to the heart of why Labour won't win the next election if they continue down the same path.

It does seem that, incredibly, many Labour members still seem keen on taking the easier path of not facing up to the deep-rooted problems of their party.

Louis Theroux and Paedophiles

Excellent programme on BBC2 right now. Journalism of the highest calibre lives on as long as Louis Theroux goes about his business like this.

It is worth mentioning again an excellent Philippa Ibbotson article on the same subject that I wrote about a while back, could be worth a read if you were lucky enough to watch this Louis Theroux programme.

The Saltire Prize

The Scottish Government's Saltire Prize of £10million for advances in wave and tidal energy has attracted an impressive 100 contestants from 23 countries. However, the other Saltire prize has only a handful of contestants, all from the same country.

The blue and white touch paper has been lit this weekend over the SNP's usage of Scotland's national flag during its Conference and as a backdrop to its wonderfully flexible new catchphrase "We've Got What It Takes".

The charge that no one party has a monopoly over the flag has been raised but unnecessarily so. Noone within the SNP is suggesting that this is, or should ever be, the case?

Indeed, the recent notable increase of Labour politicians and bloggers putting the Saltire on their websites and leaflets proves beyond any doubt that no such monopoly exists. A more logical reason for this complaint is that the SNP simply have more to gain from using the symbol and opposition parties are struggling to control their frustration with this.

For example, when I see the Scottish flag on SNP literature for the Euro elections I think of the following:

The SNP's drive for realising our massive Renewable Energy potential while other parties push for a more nuclear future.

The SNP adopting 100% of the National Farmer Union's European election manifesto and even wishing the entity had pushed for more.

The SNP's success in reversing Russia's fish trade ban of British herring and mackerel while those south of the border still face an embargo.

I don't know of any achievements Scottish MEPs from Labour, the Lib Dems or Tories have made on the European stage

It is incontestable that the SNP are the only mainstream party that can represent Scotland's interests within the EU Parliament without having to align their policies with their British counterparts. We have seen many examples where British interests do not happen to tally with Scottish interests and it is this advantage that the Nationalists are trying to exploit, quite rightly and perfectly fairly.

All Scottish MEPs may be fighting for Scotland, but only SNP MEPs have both fists at their full disposal.

The SNP have always used the Saltire to their advantage and the ante has been raised significantly as June 4th approaches. However, for as long as Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives remain tethered to the British parties, their use of the Scottish flag will always be compromised by the Union Jack that flutters in the background.

Only when the Unionist parties fully distance themselves from London can they have any hope of winning the Saltire prize from the undefeated champions, the SNP.

Still hasn't said sorry...

No, not Gordon Brown but Brian Taylor.

The braces-loving political correspondent for the BBC not only got a pretty simple maths question wrong but Brian also tried to show up Alex Salmond when the First Minister actually got the question correct. The Scotsman ran it as follows:

Salmond stumped by a mother's maths question

The question – what is 24 divided by zero? – was sent in by Frances Campbell of Barrhead who, said Mr Taylor, was "exasperated" that her nine-year-old child's teacher had got it wrong.

Mr Salmond said: "Twenty-four divided by zero would be infinity – because you can't divide by zero.

"But I don't blame the nine-year-old, or the nine-year-old's class teacher for not being able to answer that question."

Mr Taylor told him: "I think the answer is zero, actually, but never mind."


With his answer, Brian could not have been further from the correct answer of infinity.

A simple apology on his blog would be appropriate one would think but although Brian Taylor enjoys pushing for such things from Prime Ministers, it seems for the man himself, sorry is the hardest word...


(PS Despite a delightfully amusing Twitter exchange with Scottish Unionist on the subject, I still thought it was worth posting this up. It's not often that my loves of Maths and Politics mix after all!

SU seems to think the answer of infinity from Salmond is "close enough". Given that the rather complex university-level answer is 'as the divisor approaches zero, the answer approaches infinity', then "inifinity" being "close enough" for a 9 year old must mean expectations for primary school education are way too high these days!)

Dot Scot

For me, the most intriguing and engaging story of the SNP Conference so far is the battle for the 'dot scot' domain name. The ins and outs of this story are so incredibly complex that I don't think I'll even come close to doing it justice but the basic premise is this:

A campaign group had been set up years ago to campaign for a .sco or .scot domain name that could be used in the best interests of Scotland. Not unlike .cat of Catalonia or the unfortunate sounding .cym of Wales.

There is an inevitability that this campaign will be played out as an independent ploy, another means with which to chip away at the unionist state and although I have sympathy with that particular angle, it does take away from a more pressing concern.

A .scot domain name is going to happen and it is still up in the air whether it will be for the community benefit with 100% of profits going towards good causes or for the private sector with only 10% of profits going towards good causes. The campaign group that was set up four years ago, now with a reasonably apolitical structure to it, has been joined by a private sector newcomer that has seen the opportunity for profits to be made. Indeed there have even been suggestions that certain .scot domain names have been sewn up by companies contributing to this campaign. If you want "whisky.scot", you can forget it if the private sector approach wins through.

There is near unanimity at the Conference that the approach based on 100% of profits going back into communities is preferable. However, the .scot stallholders here in Glasgow are actually the private sector group and it is rather ironic that the numerous people wearing the "I'm for .Scot" badges are indirectly supporting a position that they don't actually agree with.

I am told that the stall for the private sector .scot campaign cost £10,000, not an inconisderable chunk of money which, to me, suggests that they fancy their chances of being successful when control of the domain name is awarded to one or other of the campaigns.

However, there has to be an optimism that the community-based campaign will win out. Alongside the overdue demise of PFI and a desire for banks to work in community interests, the desire to have a country's domain name run in profit interests rather than the national interest simply will not exist and should be the overriding criteria when a decision is made.

ICANN will make the decision on who will have the rights to the domain name in the not too distant future. However, the battle for the control of .scot has only just begun.

SNP Party Conference - Saturday night

Goodness, so many stories that are incredibly bloggable but my 'moral compass' rules that they shall not go to print. Shame Damian McBride and Derek Draper didn't share the same sentiment.
A fine clutch of people at Conference this evening. They may well say 'don't meet your heroes' but meeting one's MPs and MEPs holds no fear. I am certainly taken by Alyn Smith and Pete Wishart, wonderfully engaging people who are certainly switched on, whatever topic of the day may happen to be on the table. I'll save mentioning the indisputable story of the weekend until tomorrow (don't get your hopes up, the Sunday papers can rest easy. Everything's relative after all...)

I didn't get to meet the latest MSP, Anne McLaughlin, as she is 'stuck' in Barcelona. I thought this meant swanning down Las Ramblas but apparently Anne was driven to the wrong Catalan airport and is reportedly incandescent with rage that she's missed out.

Jim Mather must be the most impressive public speaker I've had the good fortune of sitting in front of, what a great speech on the merits of fiscal powers for a devolved Scotland. Proper blog post to follow. Stewart Hosie is a remarkably tanned man for one who spends so much time in Scotland though, he seems to have adopted a lot of Salmond's mannerisms too. Salmond who admitted to reading blogs at the Osama Saeed adoption night, a very well organised evening by one Esther Sassaman. Can Americans be MSPs? I think we might have found our first one if so...

Quick check of the statcounter (10,000 hits and not even at the 20th of the month? Rock on. Surprising link from Keele University too, I'll take it). But, for now, bed. And a Bloggers breakfast at a distinctly optimistic 8am tomorrow morning. I'll be there though, hope plenty of others will too!

SNP Conference - Right place, wrong party

Amusing anecdote from Brian Taylor:

As ever, the conference is accompanied by a trade fair of exhibitors. They advertise their presence in the conference handbook. One enthusiastic contributor perhaps needs to update its "cut and paste" approach.

It informs stalwart Nationalists that "the Labour Party conference is an ideal opportunity" for engagement.The organisation in question?

The Association for Public Service Excellence.

SNP Conference - Liveblog Update

Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have given rousing speeches at the SNP Conference. You can see a lot of the themes and arguments for the upcoming election beginning to be pushed and I think I might have to revise my predictions for SNP gains. Upwards.

Chief amongst them is the objection to Scotland's budget being cut by £1bn while the £25bn of new nuclear weapons are still on the table at Westminster.

David McKay also gave a wonderful speech (apologies if that name is wrong). A very clear voice and lots of good laughs and great lines: "It's taken us 75 years to get here and, I am not a gambling man, but I bet it doesn't take another 75 (to get to independence)".

But, on a more personal note, it seems I have not been booked into the Thistle Hotel as thought so I have a quandary. Should I book in on the SNP's £100 preferred rate or the travelsupermarket rate of £80? No contest really, there is a recession on and I'm sure I'll have plenty of reasons to contribute to the party's rights issue at tonight's 'charity' Adoption Night.

SNP Spring Conference 2009

Sitting aboard the 12:45 to Glasgow, delighted that I can get online on my laptop via my mobile phone and looking forward to Conference.

I'll be trying to liveblog as much as I can but if it proves to be too much of a distraction from, you know, actually enjoying the thing, I'll just have to write up my account on Sunday.

Hopefully it's off to a flier already, the fringe meetings began at 12:30pm but due to Quarter End stretching out to a nonsensical 17th of the month, I have to arrive not-so-fashionably late.

Will also be interesting to see which of the 3 approaches the Scottish media adopts:

(1) Ignore the Conference

(2) Focus on silly side stories

(3) Report some decent news from the resolutions and speeches of the weekend.


Will find out at tomorrow's bloggers meet up I guess with a paper review (from 8am - Cafe Hula).


UPDATE: Maybe not that delighted. Post written at Edinburgh Park and posted in Falkirk!

Good Mobile Manners

I found it highly amusing to read the account of Patrick Harvie 'tweeting' away while the Prime Minister and First Minister (et al) chatted about football. What a cosy scene.

Is it wrong to 'tweet' in public? Or text or even take a call? I don't see why not. Tavish Scott on the other hand "thought that it showed very poor manners and a detachment from the rest of the guests."

I've found this 'no mobile iron rule' to be one of the oddest traditions out there. I am certainly not so socially awkward that I can't sit with my own thoughts, or read a menu or (let's be honest) listen into another person's converstion while I wait for a friend to get off the phone. And that's only if there's two people. There were numerous people around Brown's dining table that night, nothing wrong with tapping into ones mobile every half an hour while Tavish and co about the wrongs and wrongs of Barry Ferguson.

Maybe we should add "stop being prissy" to Lord Mandelson's comments that some of us should "stop being so damned pessimistic".


PS: It is my ornery sense of humour I guess that makes me write a post with the phrase "we Brits" on the day that I am heading to the SNP Conference. And I shall be tweeting, blogging and phoning throughout my time there too but somehow I don't think there'll be too much of a fuss.

Recommended Reading (I'm guessing)

Not had a chance to read it yet but I see Labour blogger Kezia Dugdale has a piece in The Scotsman on new technology in the media.

If it's anything like her recent post on the subject then it'll be a cracker and well worth a read.

Infact, Kez says mentions that she is giving a speech at a Conference today. She can't be, can she?


Also, Guido Fawkes has a sublime article in The Times taking McBride, Draper and lobby journalists to task.

Afternoon discussion

Should Malc in the Burgh have called recent addition to the blogosphere (well, Feb 2006) and University of Edinburgh Rector Iain Macwhirter a 'rectum'?


I say no, it's a little bit juvenile.

Test

Gordon's Apology

So the Prime Minister has finally said sorry. Painfully he has been metaphorically dragged kicking and screaming into action that should have been days ago.

Basically, Gordon had 3 options when the news of Damian McBride's emails broke:

(1) Make a full unreserved apology.

(2) Sack McBride but insist that he the Prime Minister was not responsible for the individual actions of everyone who works at 10 Downing St.

(3) Wait a week to see how the story panned out and then decide if he needed to apologise.


Of the three options, Gordon went for the worst one. By far the least politically astute anyway.

Like being dragged up to Glenrothes to campaign, like dragging his heels on calling a 2007 Autumn election, like being dragged back on the 10p tax debacle, Gordon Brown has had to have the blood dragged from his stony manner in order to get this apology and we are left wondering if there is a heartbeat of dynamism in the man's character.

What a shambles, and a shambles of Labour's own making.

SNP Conference - Friday Night

If I was disappointed to see little mention of a social event on the Friday night in the SNP Conference timetable then I was delighted to learn that Osama Saeed is hosting an adoption night for that day.

Friday evening: 7pm to 9pm, Glasgow Art Club, 185 Bath St

Speakers:Alex Salmond MSP MP, Angus Robertson MP, Sandra White MSP... and the SNP's Glasgow Central candidate Osama Saeed

Tickets: £8 including canapes and soft drinks. All proceeds go to campaigning.

Should be well worth a look. Though I am beginning to worry that the SNP Conference is nothing more than a glorified rights issue!

Labour politician asks for a payrise

George Foulkes is many things but on the subject of increasing MPs' expenses he is correct. It is, perhaps, only his timing that could be called into question given the painful recession and the latest crop of Labour expense scandals that we've seen recently.

However, timing is not a very substantive factor to focus on so lets look at the cold hard cash.

I often wonder about my manager's manager's salary (with neither envy nor animosity) and think, "do you really need all that cash?". I am always left with the conclusion that they do not need it but that they do deserve it. I have been lucky enough to work with many people in my short career who can zero in on the crux of an issue like Neo in The Matrix when faced with a computer screen amounting to nothing more than a jumble of numbers. That tends to have a value to a business entity that far exceeds the individual salary cost, regardless of how many zeroes it may have on the end of it.

I can think of numerous MPs and MSPs who could double, perhaps even treble, their salary if they chose to walk into the private sector. Derek Brownlee immediately springs to mind and of course any member of the Scottish Government would be a valuable asset to a private company in a relevant field.

Thankfully, as things stand, we can rely on a near-fervent belief that politicians have in their party and their duty to make things better which is enough to keep them in their jobs regardless of what opportunities may exist elsewhere. Well, except for the odd Adam Ingram here and Gordon Jackson there but a respected politician delivering leaflets in a rain-soaked Fife in November? You don't do that unless you're hooked for life.

I'm not saying that politicians are paupers, far from it. Some of the list MSPs must be counting their blessings to have scraped into Holyrood with the £50k salary and will no doubt be paying the mortgage off and getting the bathroom done before 2011, just to hedge their bets.

But if we want the best then we need to pay for the best. Savings could be made by cutting the number of MPs (as mooted by David Cameron), by cutting expenses (as mooted by everyone) or allowing constituency MSPs to double up as MPs in Westminster (as mooted by me, at least).

Indeed, even if we left the status quo, the increase in pay would still lead to cost reductions elsewhere. I doubt we'd need as many eye-wateringly expensive professional consultants or outsourcing bodies to get involved with Westminster and Holyrood if the necessary skills are in the workplace already.

So George Foulkes is getting a free pass from me on this one. MPs should get paid more and if the worst thing about the Lord's comments is timing then it can't have been the worst comment in the world.

Blogging about blogging

I don't think there has ever been a week when blogging has been the subject of so much chat and perhaps that may be why there is so much confusion out there over what the nature of this beast actually is.

I posted up a long though well received piece about the State of UK Blogging from a leading political company down in London. It turns out they had a glaring error in the text, as pointed out by Hopi Sen and Aaron Murin Heath in the comments.

Supposed founder of Liberal Conspiracy, Hopi Sen, says: "I've had nothing to do with Lib Consp other than cross posting once. Not sure how the author got that idea - not from me, guv! I've never even met Sunny et al, though I hope to soon and like the site, so I'm happy to be associated with it."

So if leading political consultants don't quite catch on to what is going on in the blogosphere and formerly well-respected journalists make ill-judged attacks on a whole plethora of leading bloggers, then what is to be done?

Well, in truth, probably nothing.

As Alastair Campbell said when he was irritated by the BBC, those people like nothing better than to talk about themselves. I guess you could say the same for bloggers...

Hopefully we can all move away from empty navel gazing once the silly season of recess is over. After all, there's a recession on out there apparently.

No job in drink driving

Another of those strange cases were heard yesterday when a drunk driver crashed into another car, seriously injuring one of the passengers. Her sentence was 0 years in prison and 3 years suspension of license.

The real issue I want to talk about is the prominence of her job title in the Scotsman's news article's title:

"Drink-driving banker walks free"

I'm not entirely sure if the "banker" word is really relevant? Infact, I couldn't help but think that, in the current climate where Goodwin is the devil and those in financial services are demons at best, the inclusion of the word was somehow there to reinforce the person as the villain of the piece.

Left wing/right wing debate - Tomorrow 7pm

From the English Speaking Union:

This House Believes All The Best Goals Come From The Left Wing

In proposition we have Professor Gregor Gall and in opposition we have Bess Rhodes (Chair, Conservative Future Scotland). We are hoping that it will be a good old fashioned ding-dong debate across the economic divide.

If you'd like to come along, you'd be most welcome to do so - the debate starts at 7pm and is taking place at 23 Atholl Crescent, Edinburgh, EH3 8HQ. Alternatively, if you'd like to promote it on your blog, again, that would be great. (Job done!)

Sounds like another great evening for sure.

Welcome aboard Henry

It is great news to see that Henry McLeish has backed the SNP's plans for minimum pricing on alcohol. I say "SNP plans" but the logic stems from health chiefs on both sides of the borders who have stated that the policy would save lives and cut costs.

So what is Henry Mcleish playing at? Giving the SNP a media boost on the eve of their Spring Conference? It would be easy to paint this as a poke in the eye for Iain Gray or the move of a disgruntled former First Minister but the more I hear from Henry, the more I think he is simply an astute, balanced man giving his honest thoughts on what policies would work best for his country, regardless of which party hue is shining from any given policy at any given time.

So hopefully the Scottish Government will indeed "press on" with the move once a thorough and substantial debate has occurred in Holyrood. But if all sides act as reasonably as Henry Mcleish has on the matter, we will all be better for it.

SNP sinking on sport

One of the few areas of life that I have always envisaged being significantly improved within an independent Scotland is that of sport.

This is without any real logic or reason, just a misty-eyed hunch. Don't get me wrong, I don't mean that Scotland will qualify for more World Cups just because we have a new system of governance (Kirk Broadfoot will be just as dodgy a wing-back wherever our borders are) but I look to Norway, to Sweden, to Ireland and to Italy and I see a people for some reason more sporty than ourselves.

However, given our unhealthy and lazy ways, we would be coming from a long way back and perhaps I should focus on something more tangible than independence as the key factor in how much sport we take part in as a nation.

The news that the SNP have 'failed' in its pledge to allow kids to swim for free is not surprising, not through any fault of the Government (they still have 2 years to get such a scheme up and running) but when it comes to sport and Scotland there does seem to be a general apathy at play.

I hope the Scottish Government does follow through with this pledge, and indeed the pledge to have at least 2 hours of Physical Education a week as part of the curriculum. Personally I would like to see schools go much, much further and introduce after hours clubs, regional leagues and a broad spectrum of sports and activites on offer for pupils of all ages.

If the justification for free tuition for university students is that it is in a nation's best interests to have an educated society then the same must surely apply for a sporty society.

The most sensible route to a sportier nation is not through the parents, it's not through leaving it to kids in the park and it's certainly not through independence despite my rose-tinted view of the future. It is through schools and although it will take a lot of time and money to upgrade the infrastructure, a healthier, happier generation of Scots following the last one will make it well worth the effort.

Iain MacWhirter: "blog - an ugly word for an ugly trade"

Following on from Yousuf and Will's leads, I had to comment on a quite remarkable piece attacking the "ugly trade" of blogging from Iain MacWhirter in The Herald. I don't want to play into Iain's hands by brazenly slagging his article off but he has riled me, but chiefly because Iain usually writes with so much consideration and intellectual insight, traits that are sadly lacking in the above link.

I can think of many suggestions for why Iain felt moved to write such a post, one that immediately sprang to mind was the seemingly unsuccessful blog that Iain had up and running for a couple of years. Mothballed in January 2009 it is interesting to note that Iain still felt he had to update his blog profile to mention that he is the Rector of the University of Edinburgh, a win that happened in mid-February.

I felt that was worth mentioning because it suggests a frustration with blogging in general, updating your blog profile but then not writing any more posts?

Anyway, if Iain does feel annoyed or even threatened by the blogging scene it still does not justify some of his comments, that the blog scene is full of "sociopathic egos with extreme views" or that "argument and insight has been replaced by bark and bite". Let's remember that this whole blog debate stemmed from attack dog Damian McBride who (1) is not a blogger and (2) is (or was) very close to the top of the Downing St tree. So why are bloggers getting it in the neck?

Natural selection will always ensure that quality content, be it in papers or blogs, will always win through and any dross will ultimately get its comeuppance.

So when Iain says that bloggers "don't write, they ejaculate" he would only be correct in the sense that we're coming after MSM writers like himself. But media commentators will always have the upper hand so they should relax and leave the attack pieces on the blogosphere for lower brow journalists out there.

UPDATE: Alex Massie has an excellent take on the matter.

Ian What's His Name

I'm not doubting that the anger and frustration isn't still out there, but isn't it amazing how the fiery debate surrouding the death of Ian Tomlinson can be almost immediately glossed over because someone wrote a few vulgar emails?

As far as I know the investigation into the policeman's heavy handed attack on Ian is barely baby steps forward. Even with a sustained public outcry it probably would have ended up as a whitewash but with the pressure now off the Met, they can get away with murder if they want to.