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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Labour's Missing Candidates

It's interesting to see that the battle for Labour's candidacy in Edinburgh East is making the headlines. It looks like it will be a healthy contest between Hinds and Aitken with eager candidates seeking the opportunity to represent the area but it's the fact that it's for Holyrood rather than Westminster that interests me.

The Scottish Parliament elections are due to take place in a distant May 2011 while we have a UK election which could be a matter of months away. Intriguingly, as far as I can make out, there are still perfectly winnable constituencies that Labour haven't even got a candidate in place for yet.

Four that spring to mind are Airdrie & Shotts, East Kilbride, Kilmarnock & Loudon and Livingston.

Airdrie & Shotts - Given John Reid's retiral as an MP, under current Labour rules this constituency will require an all female shortlist from which the eventual candidate will be selected.

This has been vigorously opposed by the local party that wants local councillor Jim Logue to stand as the candidate. This row has been ongoing for quite a while now (since 2007) and seems close to irreconcilable given how close we are to the election itself.

There have even been suggestions surrounding Harriet Harman parachuting in a preferred candidate from down south but I can't imagine the local group being in favour of that and/or allowing it to happen. According to The Herald: "Johanna Baxter, who is close to Labour’s deputy leader, Harriet Harman, has also been linked to the seat." so that's a name to look out for.

This is all perfect for the SNP candidate Sophia Coyle of course. Given the news regarding Hoon and Hewitt's failed coup recently there is a conclusion that fractured parties don't win national elections. That surely applies at a local level too.

Kilmarnock & Loudon - This will also be an All Woman Shortlist and already has Cathy Jamieson as the clear frontrunner given her intentions to stand as a dual MP/MSP, a decision that flies in the face of Westminster recommendations on how Parliament should be formed going forward.

Despite this, I have to admit I rate Cathy's chances as winning the constituency at the GE as quite high given she is local, high profile and comes across as genuine and generally capable, Only An Excuse epsiodes notwithstanding.

However, this is one of the SNP's top target seats and on current national trends the Nationalists should also be very confident, particularly with the head start they have been awarded on the streets and strong showing in the Diageo campaign.

East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - On the face of it this is a very safe seat for Labour and, consequently, a lucrative prize for whoever gets the nod as Labour candidate. It is bizarre then that I can find barely any speculation on it. The main candidate seems to be Michael McCann, Adam Ingram's researcher, appears to be the front-runner given he immediately put himself forward for the position. Michael has a tough job on his hand, and not just because of the SNP candidate, but because he would be up against the 'true leader' of the human race. Stiff competition in anyone's book!

I can't help but indulge in a little idle speculation here and wonder if Andy Kerr will fancy a bit of double jeopardy and have a tilt at being the candidate, safe in the knowledge that even if he loses out then he will get a second bite at the cherry in the Scottish Parliament elections. I can't imagine Kerr will enjoy being Finance Secretary too much longer and continually playing second fiddle to Gray after McConnell and no doubt Murphy or Purcell in the future. Andy Kerr was Adam Ingram's election agent back in 1997 incidentally.

I do find it interesting that there is no All Women Shortlist in East Kilbride. I can only assume it is due to a dearth of potential female candidates given that Adam Ingram retired his position as MP and this is regularly cited as the key factor in whether AWS should be applied.

Livingston - it's probably still too early to conclude that Jim Devine won't stand as an independent after being banned by the Star Chamber from standing for Labour at the next election but I will assume it will be a straight SNP vs Labour fight for now in this constituency.

Ian Murray, Finance spokesperson in Labour's Council group, is seemingly the highest profile candidate bidding for the candidacy and seemingly a decision will be reached by the end of this month.

It's intriguing that Labour did not decide to implement an all women shortlist in this constituency although, to be fair, Devine did not technically retire. One would have thought that the overriding principle would apply though.

Given that four of the five names rumoured to be put forward are male, one can understand the reticence but if Ian wins the candidacy it will be interesting to see if his local credentials may be a factor in what should be a very tight contest with the SNP's Lis Bardell.


So, overall, the above seats are all winnable for the SNP but it does look like Labour are somewhat on the backfoot which can only help the opposition further. Yes you can still knock doors without a candidate but it's not the same as pushing a specific personality for the job or having someone with an oversized rosette shaking your hand and/or kissing your baby.

With Labour staring at each other defeatedly in the face down in London and looking at a decade out of power, is the party sluggishly staggering into this election rather than getting prepared early and proactive?

Also, given the apparent lack of options in some seats, are those that want to get ahead in Scottish Politics now looking to the Scottish Parliament rather than the UK Parliament as their rightful home?

And, partisan cynicism to one side, will this represent a step up in quality that will help see Holyrood reach maturity from its formative years sooner rather than later?

Not that Cathy Jamieson or Margaret Curran are helping in that regard but hey, where they are arbitrarily chosen to apply, those All Woman Shortlists won't fill themselves.

8 comments:

Observer said...

I don't think they are staggering sluggishly at all, I think they are fighting like ferrets in a sack.

Expecially over the all women short lists.

Being an MP in the Labour culture is a gift. You do your time in the TU movement, in the Council, and you get shooed in.

That's what happens.

What is all this pesky rubbish about women then?

douglas clark said...

Ahem.

Jeff, excellent analysis as usual. Do you think Labours disarray goes further than the constituencies you listed or not?

BTW I could have done without knowing about the saviour of the human race :-) Although it certainly validates your research in depth.

Anonymous said...

O/T but can we see the Gray man dance on a pin over this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/6983707/Cost-of-cheap-alcohol-will-double-to-curb-binge-drinking.html

Jeff said...

Thanks Douglas, just a cobbling together of stories that are out there.

And I'm afraid not about any 'disarray', I personally think Labour in Scotland are only at serious risk of losing a significant number of seats if the leadership debate kicks off at the wrong time at Westminster. Mind you, if they fall 15, 16 points behind a week before polling all sorts of rose-tinted towels will be getting thrown in.

Iain said...

In Livingston Labour won't include Ian Murray on its shortlist for selection. There are names worth looking out for though. The clear front-runner is Graeme Morrice, ex-leader of West Lothian council when it was voted best local authority in the UK back in '06.

As for your comment that A&S is winnable for the SNP. Really?! You think there's going to be 21% swing to the SNP in Airdrie? After nearby Glasgow NE, in a by-election, so thoroughly rejected the SNP?

Anonymous said...

It is just too good to be true that Morrice will be the Labour candidate. The SNP will have a field day with him.

He has so much baggage (political and personal) he might even rival Jim Devine.

Final word - at the last council election he was the 4th of 4 councillors to be elected after representing the area for 20 years - hardly the measure of a strong candidate.

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:17

Looks like you'll get what you hope for.

There are still quite a few formally in the running but it seems Cllr Morrice is using his influence with the CLP chairman to ensure that he will have no serious competition.

He and the CLP chairman are from the same Labour branch (Broxburn) and it seems that anyone Morrice sees as a threat is being kept off the short list. Hence Cllr Murray's short-lived interest in the process.

Democracy seems as healthy as ever in the Labour Party.

Julie said...

Joanne Milligan has also been linked to Airdrie and Shotts. She is a former chairwoman of Scottish Labour students and she now works down in London.

If Jim Logue does decide to run as an independent, I wouldn't bet on the SNP coming through the middle. Airdrie can certainly show their teeth if you annoy them, but since Monklands settled down there hasn't been a lot happening politically in Airdrie; not anything that would frighten the horses. Greengairs is an exception; they have a humunguous incinerator planned to go with the superdump that they have, that will take 350 000 tonnes of waste a year. This is actually in Sophia Coyle's council ward (the SNP candidate) and it is now due to go to the Scottish Government for a final decision. If the SNP want to gain an advantage here, then they should rule against it and give their candidate a chance.