The turkey carcass has been discarded, the wrapping paper stuffed away. The New Year bells have rung themselves silent and the Hogmanay tourists have left Edinburgh's vomit-strewn streets for warmer climes.
And so, attention can once again be turned to business as usual, to the election race which Cameron claims to have started on Saturday morning in Woodstock and to Scottish Politics in general. Yes, I'm easing myself once more into the blogging chair.
What 2010 will bring us noone can say for sure. There will be a UK election of course and thanks to some clever questioning from Andrew Marr we are now more inclinded to believe that said election will be later rather than sooner. And the SNP has set its stall out early doors too by giving Gordon Brown another chance to sign over the extra powers for Holyrood that Labour claims to be keen on devolving.
Even closer to home, I will be leaving Edinburgh in a fortnight's time. Leaving Scotland too. Infact, to paint an unfairly bleak picture, in two weeks' time I am on course to be homeless and unemployed on the mean streets of London, based there for the long term due to a PhD that my nearest and dearest Mrs TV is starting (on Screenwriting no less so the 'Mrs TV' moniker is spookily quite accurate!)
I'm not sure if interminable London underground commutes and trying to be the Scottish blogosphere's London correspondent is a congruous arrangement but I'll give it a bash. And given this blog was born in Sydney, Australia, there's no reason why it can't survive in London, England. Life is an adventure, is it not? It's just a shame noone took me up on the offer of an SNP PPC in London as goodness knows where my vote will go now.
So onwards to 2010 and what better way to look to the year ahead than offer up some expectations that people are free to laugh at me about a year hence when I have managed to get it all so spectacularly wrong.
I'll start off with an easy one:
(1) David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister.
(2) The SNP will win 10-15 seats in the election but given it will be a hung Parliament and Nick Clegg will refuse to enter a formal coalition the Nationalists will hold significant sway if not always a casting vote.
(3) Gordon Brown will struggle on manfully as Prime Minister, waiting till May for the election, but any Labour bright spots will come from Darling or either of the Milibands.
(4) The SNP will continue to effectively govern Scotland with regard to devolved matters but Labour will match them in the polls and may even form a slight lead. (Note that this 2010 prediction comes with the 2011 prediction that come May 2011, the Scottish electorate will reflect on the past four years and reward the SNP with another term in power)
(5) Annabel Goldie will step down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives. Lord McLetchie will be Cameron's first Secretary of State for Scotland.
(6) England will win the World Cup proceeded by much wailing and gnashing of teeth north of the border which itself will be followed by much soul searching on why English success bothers us so much.
(7) Climate change will accelerate while the political will to prevent it will stay stuck in neutral.
(8) David Miliband will be the next leader of the Labour party. Efforts to depose Harriet Harman to move Jon Cruddas in as deputy will fail as party squabbling continues after the election.
(9) A new Scottish bank with a strong social conscience will be formed, one that captures the public's imagination and is reasonably successful right from the start.
(10) Blogging will have many, many days in the sun. Mostly bad news rather than good.
Salmond vs Trump
1 minute ago
26 comments:
Welcome back Jeff - here's hoping we both have an 'acceptable' New Year.
I hesitate to say Happy, since we both know that this is the year where we all start having to pay off Labours massive debt that they got us into whilst paying off their rich banker friends.
God help us.
Still; on the bright side - in less than six months, Labour will be history. :o)
I lived in London from '88 to '91 because I was supposed to be working on a plant molecular biology PhD. Might I suggest you give the subway a dizzy and get a bike?
I used a 1950s Claud Butler racing bike but were I to move there again I'd use a Brompton. They were just starting to be seen around town when I lived there.
You can take them anywhere and don't need to worry about locking them up. In 9 years of using them I've only been given any trouble once when I wanted to take it on a bus from Victoria to Buchanan St. Even then it was because I had it inside a bin bag and not a real bike bag and the driver let it on anyway after a wee grumble.
Last summer I took one into Osborne house on the Isle of Wight. I've taken them on busses, trains, into cinemas, pubs, cafes and one sits under my desk at work all day. They can be fitted with generator lights which work as long as you turn the wheels and mine even turns on by itself when it gets dark. The front luggage system allows you carry all manner of unlikely items without compromising the handling.
More info here:
http://www.brompton.co.uk/
and an unlikely testimonial:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/the-wheel-thing-will-self-on-the-brompton-bike-926741.html
While I admit (as another Nat who now lives furth of Scotland) it can seem a bit incongruous to blog about the north, from the south. That said, however, the communicative forces of modernity largely disembody commentary, collapsing time and distance. No longer do you need to settle down beside your glowing fire, clutching a copy of the local paper. Its now only a click and a glowing monitor away.
Oh, and you can still always prop up your local SNP London branch...
http://www.londonsnp.org/
Good luck Jeff!
I look forward to your views from London. May be a very interesting experience for you to be immersed in London whilst looking homewards...
Jim
Jeff,
Bliadhna Mhath Ur, You'll be joining me then in Londistan? It will either excite you or disturb you and you'll contrast and compare with Edinburgh.
I will not blog my thoughts on here but look forward to what you have to say in due course on your new abode!
I'm registered as a Service voter back home, so my vote always goes to who I want it too; right now that's the SNP.
Happy travels - oh it's 'kin expensive down here for most things - hope you're wedged!
Crazy Daisy
Thanks folks, London sure will be interesting. Never heard of Service Voters Daisy so particular thanks for that, I'll check it out and Mr Cashley might get my cross by his name after all.
And LPW, London sure branch will be a relatively early port of call. After the trivialities of getting a job and home sorted of course ;)
"the year where we all start having to pay off Labours massive debt that they got us into whilst paying off their rich banker friends."
Thank God Alec (former Royal Bank economist) hasn't got any bankers in his council of economic advisors or any history that would suggest the SNP would have cosied up to the bankers.
Good luck in London.
Make sure you stock up on whisky and Tunnock's Teacakes before you go. The Diaspora actually kill for teacakes and caramel logs ;)
Jeff, Service voters are voters who are serving military personnel. They can have a proxy vote using their 'main' address rather than using an address at their present posting.
It ensures they do vote and don't have the hassle of re-registering each time they move residence, which can be several times during the term of a government.
Don't think you'll qualify somehow. :)
All the best Jeff, looking forward to your despatches from a new perspective, upwards and onwards as they say!
Who knows, Jeff, perhaps your sojourn in London will help you realise the benefits of the continuation of the United Kingdom in its current form...! Out of curiosity will your partner's studies be subject to fees - if there are any - charged at the domestic (UK rate) or will you be paying a higher EU-student rate on a voluntary basis as an acknowledgement of your desire for Scotland to leave the UK and thus not benefit from such a discount?
In any case, best of luck with the move.
I think people "killing" for teacakes is a disincentive for me to take any down Hythlo... ;)
Thanks Subrosa, you are quite correct, I am not eligible even in the most favourable interpretation of the rules. Great system though for those that use it.
And thanks Wardog, hope it's onwards and upwards for also whatever that entails.
Who knows Keith, maybe so, but as someone who has no pressing desire to see Scotland independent I don't think my thoughts will change all that much.
Don't judge a blogger by its party membership and all that...
In light of that, and although I appreciate your curiosity, I don't think I'll be discussing someone's student fees on here to help you score a cheap (and misplaced) point.
Jeff -
Electoral Register is based on residence on 15 October.
You are not under an obligation to register when you change address - so you can stay on the electoral register in Edinburgh North & Leith until the ERO in whatever London Borough you move to requests you to provide information under the annual canvass 2010 - which cannot start until July 2010.
So you can vote for Calum (or whoever) at the General Election and apply for a proxy or a postal to do that.
www.aboutmyvote.co.uk has the forms.
When I stayed there Teacakes were almost impossible to find. Caramel Wafers were fairly easy to get in supermarkets as was IRN-BRU but most shops were shut on a Sunday which was annoying. Lidgate the butcher in Nottinghill stocked some Scottish items.
Don't look at or talk to people in the subway - they don't like it up them. Don't expect people to wait in a queue in paper shops, they will just drop the money on the counter and run.
Speaker's Corner is good.
@Anon But if Mr B does not declare he has moved his poll card or his postal vote paper will be sent to his October 15th address. That would then become one of those "votes" so crucial in deciding bi-elections. The ones recorded on missing registers.
While it may be nice if our diaspora get to vote from "abroad" - Italians seem to be able to do it - until then its safer to let the next occupant of his vacated house be enfranchised.
eezee geezer!
Who wants to place a bet on Jeff running in the London Mayoral race as the SNP's candidate.
THAT would be an upset!
Aye STV Jeff, hope you had a good New Year, and good luck with your move to London.
Not sure about some of your predictions, England will bottle it either in the Quarter or Semi finals, cant argue with some. I take it you think Cameron will fall short of an overall majority then?
Cheers Allan,
Brown may be a car-crash most days, but Cameron still needs the second biggest swing since World War 2.
Darling has as much in the locker as Osborne does not. For that reason, and the polling anomaly where Tories need ~8% just to be level, I don't think Cameron will get his majority.
You could always be naughty Jeff and keep your vote here, that's what I did, I can still remember racing from the station to vote for Jim Sillars in the Govan by-election although I'm not too sure I should admit that (it shows my age).
You will love London, I did, but it will also make you appreciate Scotland more.
Good Luck and enjoy.
I think it's actually quite legal to keep your vote here, if your main and principle residence is here.
And who can say that isn't your mum's?
Good stuff Observer, the vote stays in Scotland even if my body is down south. Where my heart will be remains to be seen!
(And there's a regrettably simple reason why I won't be registered at my Mum's but we won't go into that here. Fair suggestion though)
why not stand as an SNP PPC? 2 birds, one stone!
Mr Anon No.2 (or is it 3)
Mr B can get a proxy vote or a postal vote.
If someone moves in and applies to be registered they can be registered and can vote without Mr B being taken off the register because both are entitled to vote
Mr B on basis of annual canvass - 15 Oct 2009 being the eligible date; and new resident - date applied to vote being the eligible date.
The ERO should only delete the entry for the new resident at their previous address, if any.
ERO can't take Mr B off the register because he remains entitled as he was resident on 15 Oct 2009.
@anon 6.31
I looked on the electoral commission website which does not explicitly indicate what you are to do on moving, other than to register to vote at your new house. There does look like a loophole in the proxy system where you could nominate a proxy to receive your polling card and indeed a postal vote there too. It does not state that your own postal vote could be mailed to an address other than the registered one unless you had a proxy.
It looks like one of those arrangements a gentleman would be assumed not to cheat at. And is clearly open to fraud in the modern way of doing things.
Gradually I grow more cynical about so much of our democracy. I wonder if we have more to learn from dipping fingers in indelible ink than any developing country could ever glean from the ways of the mother of parliaments.
The question I have always wondered is just how many votes one person could amass. MP's with 3 houses could be on 3 voting rolls. Who checks they only get one vote? Or being such honest citizens do they vote in all 3 wards?
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