I see Kezia Dugdale (one-time blogger and now presumably full time Election Agent for Edinburgh East) has managed to get a press release into the Scotsman over some Lib Dem leaflets that have ended up in the wrong constituency. Ok there may have been a thousand or so that went astray but this is nothing if not a cautionary tale.
There were so many leaflets to deliver that the Lib Dems decided to pay Royal Mail to deliver them. One could weakly argue that this was due to a lack of activists but Kevin Lang's campaign must be going great guns if he can stump up enough money for such a delivery, mispostings to one side. I daresay Kezia and the Labour camp at large may not enjoy the last laugh on this one. Or the SNP for that matter.
With Mark Lazarowicz something of an anonymous candidate in Edinburgh North & Leith and regrettably precious little impact from the other parties contesting the seat, one has to wonder if a cash-rich Lib Dem campaign is going to win the day in Edinburgh, particularly if die-hard Nationalists are even pondering over who to vote for.
With Edinburgh West presumably already in the bag, Edinburgh South looking like a potential gain given Nigel Griffiths' well-documented problems not to mention no Labour candidate in sight and North & Leith so over-resourced that leaflets are getting scattered around the city willy-nilly, could Edinburgh be painted a vibrant Lib Dem yellow after the next election?
It doesn't bear thinking about. Maybe my moving south was a wise move, proving in time to be escaping a Lib Dem stronghold.
Monday, February 15, 2010
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10 comments:
I'm a bit confused - I was under the impression that the Royal Mail delivered the leaflets free of change for all parties (presumably with some restrictions on frequency).
Certainly, in 2005 and 2007, I was getting a wad of leaflets along with my post everyday.
On a more recent note, while staying away from home, a Mike Rumbles leaflet came through the door via the postman.
They're allowed one leaflet delivered by Royal Mail for free. But it has to be an election address, delivered after the election is called, and it hasn't yet - so the Lib Dems must be paying for it.
10 leaflets per door in Glenrothes by the SNP did SFA. Lib Dems will feel the squeeze as predicted.
They've done similar in Glasgow North, again using the Royal Mail in preference to both their local activists. Presumably, they're pouring money into their target seats (although I think they're being incredibly optimistic in North, a good result in 2007 notwithstanding).
Cato -
Lib Dems didn't get a good result in N&L in 2007.
They got a good result in 2005.
SNP got a good result in 2007 and 2009.
FYI ... the Lib Dems are close to delivering a million bits of literature in the constituency since the Scottish Parliament elections, including a variety of newspapers, leaflets and direct mail. They have also knocked on nearly 20,000 doors. By most reckonings, this is a phenomenal level of activity. It also reveals that paying for Royal Mail delivery is - far from a last resort - an expression of confidence and commitment. By contrast, the other parties have been all but completely silent/absent. The conclusion many independent/floating voters would draw is that only one party is really putting in the effort to win. In truth, the others may be too overawed and deflated to put up a real fight.
I would readily concede that the SNP had a better election in 2007 than in 2005, but comparisons with the Scottish Parliament result here must be taken with a hefty pinch of salt. First, the constituencies are different - there are an extra 12,000 voters in the Westminster seat: in the West End, Dean Village, Blinkbonnys, Orchards, Blackhall and Craigleith. Nobody would claim that these areas are any good for the SNP. Secondly, while the SNP can win a minority government at Holyrood, they will never be more than bit parts at Westminster (for as long as any Scots MPs are there at all). Like it or lump it, that does make some people shy away from the Nats in a UK election. And, in purely political terms, some SNP supporters from 2007 will be less certain of doing so again if either they are disillusioned with the Holyrood administration, and if they believe that Labour is only winning in this area because the opposition to them is split.
It is realistic to expect the SNP vote to increase from 10% to 17 or 18%, but it's not realistic to think that it could rise to 27 or 28%, which would be the minimum needed to win. As a true measure of how the SNP's standing has improved since 2005, you can take the swing from the 2004 Euro election to 2009 and apply it to the 2009 result: the SNP does improve, but would remain fourth, and the Lib Dems would win, given a sharp fall in Labour's vote share.
Given the targeting effort, you could expect the Lib Dem share of the vote to beat the national swing by about 5% or so, squeezing both Tory and SNP in the process (though probably the former to a greater degree). Which would give us something like:
LD 31.5-32%
Lab 28.5-29%
Con 17.5-18%
SNP 17-17.5%
Grn 3.5-4%
And, on a likely turnout of 65%, a LD majority over Lab of 750-1250 votes.
I agree with almost everything that "youngdegsy" says... apart from his conclusion. Certainly, on the numbers (up to a point) he is on the right lines.
Two things missing from your analysis.
1) If the SNP are taking a hit because people in N&L are disillusioned with their governance at Holyrood, surely the Lib Dems take a bit of a hit on the basis of their incompetence at the City Chambers?
2) The national battle pits Con v Lab for PM and in Scotland the SNP are getting in on the act as government - which gives them a profile. On both levels the Lib Dems are nowhere. What makes N&L so different?
I also think you over-estimate the impact of leaflets - particularly for those with an environmental conscience. Basically, you're on track to deliver 1 million pieces of Lib Dem literature straight into recycling bins!
But I can't argue with your numbers. Apart from, obviously, your conclusion. Lazarowicz to hold.
Hi Jeff,
Oh dear, am now a "one time" blogger eh? Had better get typing.
Alas, I am not a full time election agent, I still have my full time job and only a part-time volunteer election agent with many other part-time responsiblities also.
Just don't have the time to be as prolific a blogger as your dearself.
Hope London is working out well for you.
Kez
I just miss you Kez ;)
And am patently aware that the less you blog the more people you are convincing to vote Labour. Mind you, if that serves to keep the Lib Dems out then I guess I shouldn't complain too much!
PS Fully agree with degsy's fine analysis, as difficult as it is to imagine anyone but Lazarowicz winning through in the end.
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