Scotland on Sunday - Scottish poll

After taking a fairly steady stream of flak for posting up polls that showed the SNP on a par with the Tories in Scotland, I decided to wait until a strictly Scottish poll with a sample size of greater than 1,000 came out before talking about polls on here.

I didn't have to wait long.

In the Scotland on Sunday today there is a poll of 1,002 adults conducted by YouGov with Westminster voting intentions as follows:

Labour - 38% (40 seats)
SNP - 21% (7 seats)
Tory - 20% (3 seats)
Lib Dems - 15% (9 seats)

The results are markedly similar to that of the Sun poll that attracted so much derision so I'll say it again, some people need to pull their heads out of the clouds and realise that the SNP charge is hitting the buffers. That doesn't necessarily equate to a slitting of the wrists or a throwing in of the towel as some uncharitably suggest, it's simple realism. I've personally always expected a Tory-Labour squeeze to take place because most people will either decide they don't want Brown so vote in Cameron or, more likely, don't want the Tories in so will rally behind Brown regardless of what the other parties are selling.

That's not to say that Team SNP should sit back and take it. Hopefully there'll be some big campaigns and policy announcements in the weeks and months to come not to mention an 'assault' on the voters by foot and by phone.

Aside from the poll, there was an interesting statistic that only 48% of respondents think that SNP supporters should vote SNP (and in light of my recent Anti-Tory Tactical Voting post, perhaps I'd better not comment!) but that's key to the party's success, changing the mindset that to vote SNP is a wasted vote. However, with Brown and Cameron stealing most of the limelight and constantly hammering all other parties for being too small to deserve a vote (with willing cheerleaders in the Scottish press as we see all too clearly yet again today) it's going to be a very tough battle and there'd be no shame in returning less than 10 MPs and regrouping for May 2011 and the battle for Holyrood.


Now, who would like a helping of humble pie?