GE2010 - Scotland's Top 5 Local Issues

Regular readers will know that I like few things more than to take a recent Scottish poll, apply the national swing to each constituency and ‘predict’ the results that come out the other side. There are of course numerous problems with this approach with the chief one being the unpredictable variable of ‘local factors’, an Achilles heel that I have no doubt cursed more often than Beckham will have cursed his own these past few days. (Too soon? For the record, I’m devastated Becks is out the World Cup)
 
Anyway, rather than skirt around these elephants in the Electoral Calculus room, I thought I would consider what the top five local factors in Scotland actually are as I start to warm up for the General Election campaign proper.
 
It was difficult to pull out only five so I won’t try to rank them and will instead list them arbitrarily but feel free to add your own and/or rubbish any of mine:
 
 
Borders Rail Link – As someone who in a past life had to regularly commute to Galashiels from the North side of Edinburgh I would politely suggest that this project has been long overdue. I don’t know if it was the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that got the ball rolling on this one or if it was the current SNP Government but I would imagine that an appreciative Borders community would reward whoever deserved it with an upswing in votes.
 
The train will eventually snake through the Labour and Lib Dem constituencies of David Hamilton’s Midlothian and Michael Moore’s Roxburgh, Berwickshire and Selkirk. With the latter, an area that is largely Tory vs Lib Dem, tactial voting considerations may well outweigh any polling impact as a result of a train line which, to be fair, is already in the bag and consequently may not be uppermost in the minds of those going to the polls.
 
CalMac Ferries – The question of whether the ferry operator should operate crossings on a Sunday around the islands on the West coast has been a huge issue for the more religious communities in Angus MacNeil’s SNP constituency of Western Isles and Alan Reid’s Lib Dem constituency of Argyll & Bute.
 
I fancy both men to enjoy a significant incumbency factor to be honest and be returned to Westminster but there is no doubt what the number one issue will be in this part of Scotland.
 
The East Lothian Question (a tremendous pun, shamelessly ‘borrowed’ from Stephen Glenn) – Anne Moffat’s many woes have meant that Labour go into this contest in clear disarray. Some crises are imagined by the opposition, some are bona fide. This one ticks the latter box. With 7 weeks to go we are still unsure whether Anne will be the candidate or not and that alone, despite a considerable majority to defend, is enough to tentatively suggest that one of the other parties will prise this seat from Labour’s grasp.
 
Trams – I had lost track (pardon the pun) of the flailing tram project until I read a startling article in the Scotsman explaining that even the most ardent of supporters of the transport project could be losing faith in it (I know one person who won’t, come what may). I understood from it that after years of disruption and some businesses even closing down on the street, the route may not even extend to Leith Walk initially due to a lack of money.
 
The question of who will bear the brunt of any impact in the election itself is a fascinating one. The Greens, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems were all in favour of the project but it was the SNP and Lib Dem council who were tasked with delivering it. That’s a double-whammy of bad news for the yellow camp but if I was a disgruntled voter who wished to protest about the trams, I wouldn’t know where to cast my vote. (For the record, I’ve come full circle. I regret the ballooning expense but I’m a tram convert and think they’ll be great in the end)
 
Edinburgh North & Leith is a seat that will clearly be impacted by this and it is little wonder that SNP PPC Calum Cashley has been continuing his anti-tram stance so resolutely. In a seat where all four (or even five) main parties will have good reason to be confident of a good result, the ramifications of ‘trams’ as an issue could well be crucial.
 
Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route – A project that apparently makes the Edinburgh trams look like plain sailing. First announced in 2003, the construction has not yet begun with approval given (again) in late 2009. Those who live along the route have voiced some fierce criticism of it and Aberdeen North’s Frank Doran, Aberdeen South’s Anne Begg and Aberdeenshire West’s Robert Brown could potentially face electoral trouble as a result of the heavy delays stretching back into the last administration, albeit in Holyrood and not at Westminster. Anne Begg, with a majority of only 1,348 is the most vulnerable from unexpected voting behaviour though at the same time of course may ultimately be the beneficiary.
 
 
So, that’s my five cents worth and with cuts vs spending and Cameron vs Brown as the overriding national narratives, it’s probably well worth keeping the above local factors (and no doubt more beside) in mind as May 6th approaches.