I had planned on starting my General Election 2010 Seatwatch series with Livingston to tie in with the expenses scandal, today’s case at Southwark Crown Court and SNP PPC Lis Bardell’s recent guest post but in light of the unfortunate news that Conservative candidate Mark Jones has had to pull out of Aberdeen South due to personal reasons, I will lift my gaze northwards and leave Livingston to next.
In 2005, the results for Aberdeen South were:
Anne Begg (Labour) – 15,272 (36.7%)
Vicki Harris (Lib Dem) – 13,924 (33.5%)
Stewart Whyte (Tory) – 7,134 (17.1%)
Maureen Watt (SNP) – 4,120 (9.9%)
The confirmed candidates for 2010 are Rhonda Reekie (Greens), Anne Begg (Labour), John Sleigh (Lib Dem) and Mark McDonald (SNP and ex-blogger). The replacement for Mark Jones has been announced as Amanda Harvie, an early champion of the controversial Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route and leading member of Reform Scotland.
The equivalent Scottish Parliament seat is held by Nicol Stephen (Lib Dems).
This has never been a happy hunting ground for the Nationalists and I think it’s fair to rule out a victory from fourth for Mark, despite being the Deputy Leader of the SNP Group on Aberdeen Council.
With would-be Tory voters having preumably an inferior choice on their hands given Mark Jones’ stepping down, there is a very real prospect of some significant tactical voting in this constituency with Tories backing Jon Sleigh to keep Labour out and contributing to a rare Lib Dem gain.
Local factors include the controversial Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route although it is unclear which party, other than perhaps the Greens, is most likely to reap the benefits in terms of votes. On a similar note, Martin Ford and Debra Storr recently defected from the Lib Dem group in this Council area so there could be a knock on effect there against the party. The strength of the SNP vote alone (which will surely increase substantially on 9.9% from 2005) may be enough to ensure that Labour will pull through the middle of the respective challenges by further pulling away at the Lib Dems.
However, I suspect Anne Begg may well lose votes as a simple result of having been the local representative for 13 years and an appetite for a change may be in the North East air. A lot rests on whether the Conservative voters will stick with Amanda or lend their vote to the Lib Dems. Realistically, with the only real prospect of finishing 3rd or 4th, I can only see this with shades of yellow.
SNP TV PREDICTION: - Lib Dem gain
SNP Tax
6 minutes ago
22 comments:
Andrew Reeves may not have done the Lib Dems a favour by this blogpost where he belittles MArk for not telling his campaign manager his mother was ill.
The Lib Dems truly are a nasty little party.
Jeff, which party or parties did the Lib Dem Cooncilers defect to?
Don't know for sure Tulloch but I believe they sit as independents but joined the Green Party (and strongly suspect will stand for the Greens in 2011)
On the "nasty party" theme: Lib Dems launch attack website ->
http://www.labservative.com/
Bookies’ best prices - Aberdeen South (2005: Lab majority over Lib Dems = 1,348)
Lab 11/10 BetFred, Ladbrokes
LD 9/4 Victor Chandler, William Hill
Con 5/1 Bet365
SNP 9/1 Victor Chandler
Bookies’ best prices - Aberdeen North (2005: Lab majority over Lib Dems = 6,795)
Lab 4/11 Ladbrokes
SNP 2/1 Paddy Power, William Hill
LD 28/1 Victor Chandler
Con 100/1
It is not easy for any party to swim against the electoral tide. No, I cannot agree with you that the LD will win this seat.
In my experience over the decades a replacement candidate just before an election does just as well.
Jeff, you should have checked.. there is a confirmed Green candidate, our local branch convenor Rhonda Reekie.
But you get a point for knowing that Martin Ford and Debra Storr both joined the Greens but sit as part of the Democratic Independent Group (chaired by a Lib Dem in exile, the excellent Paul Johnston).
Martin Ford and Debra Storr defected from the Lib Dems in Aberdeenshire Council not Aberdeen City Council which covers this seat. Can't see that being an issue in the outcome.
Fair enough James, I did look on Guardian and UK polling report (who had the bnp candidate) but didn't see a Green.
Rhonda has been bumped to the front, 'Alex Salmond for FM' style.
And hey, I have to combat the suggestions I'm a closet Green somehow ;)
Thanks Stuart, I meant to include such info. Looks like a tight race. Odd to see SNP with longer odds than the Tories.
And N, you're probably right, I was perhaps over-reaching with the councillors link. I don't really know how big the Menie issue is up there to be honest.
Thanks Stuart, I meant to include such info. Looks like a tight race. Odd to see SNP with longer odds than the Tories.
And N, you're probably right, I was perhaps over-reaching with the councillors link. I don't really know how big the Menie issue is up there to be honest.
Jeff
I am hurt, and now intend to prove you wrong.
I also await your prediction appearing on a Lib Dem leaflet next to a bar chart.
Mark
Jeff - "Looks like a tight race"
Indeed it is. In fact, AFAIAA, it is actually the 2nd-tightest 4-way marginal in the entire United Kingdom, at least as far as punters are concerned.
Only Edinburgh North and Leith is tighter.
Of course, Jeff, the fact that the former Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems in Aberdeen has just been reported to the procurator fiscal might play a role.
As might the fact that the Libs are now on candidate number 3...
What can I say Mark, a supersized portion of humble pie for me if I've got it wildly wrong.
No point suspending reality for 6 weeks just cos there's an election on though.
Needless to say, best of luck to you!
Fair enough Anonymous, both good points that I was unaware of. As Stuart points out, maybe it's much closer than I, or the bookies even, have it.
On that, Stuart, I always thought South East was a bit 4-way. I'm probably thinking of the Purves, Grahame, Brownlee seat in the Scottish Parly...
Jeff,
Can I recommend for future entries on this 'SeatWatch' series the following:
Glenrothes
Ochil and South Perthshire
Glasgow North
Dundee West
The first one, you might think, is laughable. I dispute that, due to the fact we managed to accrue 36% of the vote - a high number. And also, it is worth noting that Roy received a visit from Ed Miliband, a man who is Gordon's man on Climate Change - a policy area devolved to Scotland. Make of that what you will. But it leads me to suspect that something is happening there.
You can get that of the Fife Labour website.
Oh, and add the 'Edinburgh North and Leith' and 'Edinburgh East' seats to the mix. Should be a fun one.
Will the SNP benefit in both for opposing the Edinburgh trams? I realise that the SNP voted for them on the council - due to being part of the administration - but not voting would have made the coalition collapse!
Jeff
I think this will be a hold for Labour. Not because of Labour but because of Anne Begg, who gets a lot of good local press, and has been in the fortunate position of being able to score cheap and easy political points against the Lib Dem/SNP City Council. Mark could do pretty well if he gets the vote in the more heavily populated areas of Kincorth and Torry to switch to the SNP, but it will be tough.
On a note of irony, Martin Ford was being lined up as the Lib Dem candidate for this constituency before he burnt his bridges with the Shire Lib Dem Council Administration. He would have been a real champion for the NIMBY vote in Aberdeen South, which includes the most controversial section of the AWPR. But hey, he's probably now in the party that has always been closest to his ideals.
Thanks Steven. Those seats weren't originally on my radar but I'll trust your judgement and give them a go.
Good point about Miliband. I know he went to N&L but didn't know about Glenrothes. Maybe that Forth bridge isn't so bad after all!
Perhaps a bit old now Jeff, but you might be interested to know that your "SNP TV PREDICTION: - Lib Dem gain" line has been used by the Lib Dem candidate as "proof" that the SNP have all but given up on this seat. So congratulations, you're apparently an official spokesperson for the SNP now!
Honestly, how can people print blatant lies and not feel even a pang of guilt?
Wow, thanks for letting me know Doug. Was that on Twitter or, heaven forbid, a leaflet?
There's pushing the limits and then there's just downright idiocy. This falls into the latter camp.
Hmm, I wonder if I should take this further...
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