One of the most fiercely fought and topical Scottish contests in the upcoming General Election is without a doubt Livingston, with the added peculiar twist coming in the form of outgoing MP Jim Devine spending the date of the election, May 6th, in Southwark Crown Court facing charges of fraud.
The results from the 2005 General Election were:
Robin Cook (Labour) – 22,657 (51.1%)
Angela Constance MSP (SNP) – 9,560 (21.6%)
Charles Dundas (Lib Dems) – 6,832 (15.4%)
Alison Ross (Tory) – 4,499 (10.2%)
The results from the 2005 by-election (after the sad death of Robin Cook) were:
Jim Devine (Labour) – 12,319 (41.8%)
Angela Constance MSP (SNP) – 9,639 (32.7%)
Charles Dundas (Lib Dems) – 4,362 (14.8%)
Gordon Lindhurst (Tory) – 1,993 (6.8%)
The equivalent Scottish Parliament seat is held by Angela Constance.
2010 contestants: Lis Bardell (SNP), Graeme Morrice (Labour), Charles Dundas (Lib Dems), Alison Adamson-Ross (Conservatives), David Vass (Independent)
There is a huge difference between the General Election result and the by-election result and a key question comes down to whether this difference is due to a strong personal vote for the popular Robin Cook or due to typically erratic results at by-elections which may well ‘snap back’ to a larger majority when it is a national vote.
I’m going to sit on the fence and suggest it is a mixture of both but the third factor, the Jim Devine affair, is perhaps the most significant issue at play here.
The Labour MP, as most will know, has been barred from standing again for the party after faking invoices in order to top up his parliamentary expenses. Paul Hutcheon of the Sunday Herald well and truly got his man after some very impressive investigative journalism over a series of weeks. The fraud wasn’t, as far as I’m aware, for personal gain but it was highly unscrupulous behaviour and quite rightly has seen the man in the dock facing questions, not to mention seen the local area faced with negative headlines for the Labour party months on end, a Labour party they historically tend to return in this area.
The embarrassment for Labour doesn’t necessarily equate to a hit in the polls though, we need only look to Glasgow North East and Michael Martin finally getting dragged out of the Speaker role and lavish lifestyle that he enjoyed there to see that. Willie Bain (impressively already a Transport PPS) won by a handsomely increased majority. Could the same happen in Livingston?
Personally, I doubt it. For a start, this is on the very fringes of Labour’s Glasgow heartland and with the SNP running the local council, winning the Scottish Parliament seat and winning the equivalent seat in the European elections, one has to think that the local area is becoming pre-disposed to voting SNP and may not want to end that particular knack now. And what further evidence that it is time for a change when your MP for the past five years is in court when you are heading to the polls, particularly when nearby Labour MPs Eric Joyce and Michael Connarty have had serious questions asked of them in relation to Westminster claims in recent years.
Tactical voting will have been employed during the 2005 by-election and it’s fair to assume that those wishing to see Cameron installed at Number 10 may well lend their vote to the SNP for this contest. The Lib Dems, similarly, may see their vote split between SNP and Labour although one could argue that a fear of the Tories getting in could boost Labour’s fortunes more than the SNP’s in that particular regard.
Local factors include the axing of 500 jobs at Bausch and Lomb, although as ever in these constitutionally ambivalent days, it is difficult to know if the UK or Scottish Government will get the blame, if any blame is even justified.
There is a huge mountain to climb for the SNP if one looks at the General Election result and a relatively small final push if one looks at the by-election result. Robin Cook, with his clearly well-deserved reputation for honesty and integrity in politics, may make his successor’s ills all the more abhorrent to the local populace when comparisons are inevitably made and, mostly for that reason, I don’t see Labour getting enough of its vote out to have the edge here.
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15 comments:
I had the pleasure of running across Liz Bardell not too long ago and I must say she is an amazing person and was most impressed. I have no doubt she would be a fantastic MP and of extremely independent (not meant in the constitutional sense) mind. People in Scotland would be well served to be represented by such a woman.
Wishfull thinking rather than rational thinking. Labour will hold this seat. SNP vote is weak across Scotland from 2007 and despite being up from 2005it is not enough to win this seat depsite local circumstnces.
Good to know Anon1, I've personally not had the pleasure.
Thanks for the attempt to rationalise my deludedness, I think you underestimate the Devine effect but we'll see in just over a month I suppose.
I would wish Lis well. Labour is deeply unpopular, contrary to what 'Opinion Polls' (by Yougov) are suggesting. Look at all Ipsos Polls since last year...they suggest a steady SNP vote that is around 2% less than Labour.
The by-election result was a good one, and Devine's misfortunes should aid the SNP quite well here. There is no reason why the SNP can't win it - except for SLAB negativity. Then again, we won in 2007 in the face of negativity. We can do it again.
Besides, SLAB are campaigning on devolved issues as well as reserved ones. That we are campaigning on the big reserved issues should make us far more relevant than SLAB - who will campaign on something they can't affect at Westminster.
Jeff - how about a Glenrothes edition? I am interested because of the SNP vote share in that by-election. Roy seems to be in a spot of trouble, due to getting a ministerial visit. It could be nothing, but I haven't seen Glasgow MPs getting Ed Milliband paying them a visit.
I would wager a SNP gain in Glenrothes if we manage to focus on Roy's record - which has been...nothing? I can't think of anything he has achieved apart from reading planted questions.
Good work on these SeatWatch intallments. Very good analysis.
I just consulted electoral calculus..
We have the same chance of winning Glenrothes (from the flawed perspective of Yougov-reliant EC) as Falkirk. Same with Edinburgh North and Leith.
The interesting thing is that if we were to have a bad night in Glenrothes, our vote would be up to around the by-election vote. So a good night must equate to either winning the seat or...narrowly losing. And if there was a second GE in 2010, we would win it in that contest.
I am definately spending more time in Glenrothes than K+C due to this.
Another example of how scandal surrounding a departing Labour MP doesn't tend to affect their successor is the Cathcart by-election on the same day as the Livingston one, which was triggered by the resignation of Firestarter Watson and won by Charlie Gordon without much bother. Which is fair enough: why should Devine's sins by visited on Morrice? Angela Constance only just took the seat at Holyrood, and that was when people weren't trying to keep the toffs out. Labour hold.
Great and fair analysis Jeff. I think this seat is one the SNP can win and the only hurdle I can see for the SNP is the fact they run the local council and Labour might play on any unpopular issues that the council have made.
Jim Devine is no Robin Cook and and I hope the SNP play the Devine factor very strongly in the seat against Labour.
The main challenge to the SNP across Scotland is not Labour but the corrupt and bent mafia that is the Scottish newspaper media.
The SNP will struggle to take this.
Big losers will Be Labour and Lib dems.
However the SNP need to persuade a large number of Labour voters to switch or not vote. They might be able to do this.
The deciding factor however will be postal votes. Labour therefore has it in the bag.
Can't agree with you on this one Jeff. Yes the Divine issue will lose Labour some votes, but the SNP will also suffer as a result of being in power in West Lothian - power leads to spending decisions which always leads to easy political targets. Add to this the SNP's greatest problem of appearing to be an irrelevance in a 2 horse UK election and I would call it as a Labour hold.
The SNP has just pretty much tackled the "irrelevant" issue head-on and the Lab/Con supporters are screaming foul loudly enough make me think it must be an effective strategy (and the best for their constituents let me add).
Nationalist parties make hung Parliament demands
How DARE they!
A squeeze can work both ways.
Sorry, really have to disagree with you here. If the SNP get off the block's and go in really hard on New Labour's record then who knows. But a 14% swing is required to win this seat.
A comfortable New Labour hold for me i'm afraid.
Lis might have a better chance if she actually brought the Devine issue into her (pretty quiet) campaign. I got a leaflet the other week which was one side of A4 full of numbers to proove Lab are cutting Scottish funding. The other side was pics of cllrs standing in front of various refurbed schools and leisure facilities. Yawn... Where's the attack on Lab and Devine - where's the outrage and the campaign to clean up politics?
There's an opportunity here for the SNP. And it's being missed.
I think the other factor that will disrupt predictions made from historical events is that Livingston has a high degree of population flux.
Without the effect of Robin Cook's personal reputation to dampen the statistical noise this brings, it'll be much harder to assume that past results will be repeated; with greater unpredictability the further back you go.
The same applies to Bathgate, incidentally, which has had a huge influx of non-traditional Labour voters in the last 5 years into the Wester Inch developments.
There are parallels with East Lothian here; whether this population has any New Labour sympathies, or will break towards the LibDems, the SNP & the Greens will be interesting to watch - eyes on the returns from the polling station sited in the primary school exclusively serving the new housing.
I met Lis Bardell last night when I went along to the Alex Salmond roadshow in Livingston. She was genuinely impressive. I have had the opportunity in recent years to work with Robin Cook, Bristow Muldoon, Angela Constance and Jim Devine. Regardless of political allegiances Robin Cook was an excellent representative for Livingston, the hapless Mr Devine not even a shadow of his predecessor. When I was fighting a rearguard action to safeguard jobs when my employer was taken over, Labour frankly didn't give a damn. They didn't even want to speak to me, whereas the SNP team secured access to Ministers who spoke to the new owners and made the case for keeping jobs in Livingston. Regardless of bigger picture politics that is what elected representatives should be doing, fighting for their constituents and standing up for them. Robin Cook lobbied on our behalf on previous issues but after his death, Labour were just not bothered, except of course at election time. I got the impression from my brief chat with Lis Bardell last night that she is en educated, intelligent lady with an impressive track record in her chosen career. No doubt she would make a great representative for Livingston. Mind you I've not seen any evidence of any campaigning by any party in Livingston to date so I'm not sure how fiercely fought it really is.
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