Two chances for Anne Moffat MP

The mess that has become Labour’s candidacy in East Lothian has been remarkable and the Caledonian Mercury is correct to say that the party machine is largely to blame for getting to the position where, with less than two months until an election that could end in a hung parliament, what should be a safe seat is tantalisingly within reach for opposition parties.
 
I daresay leaving Anne Moffat in place as the candidate would be the best result for those not of a Labour persuasion. We saw what clean skin Willie Bain was able to do in Glasgow North East in the heat of the expenses scandal after standing in place of the somewhat disgraced (but Lord nonetheless) Michael Martin. The result in Livingston, similarly, may not be as some are hoping for given that Jim Devine is not actually standing although SNP PPC Lis Bardell seems confident there is still an outraged many out on the doorsteps..
 
The group of East Lothian activists that have forced a vote may well lose the day if the full 700 strong Labour members in the area decide that they don’t want a fuss and putting Moffat back in place will make for an easier life. Even if Anne Moffat loses the vote, she can still appeal to the NEC, wasting even more precious campaigning time.
 
Where I disagree with the Caledonian Mercury’s take of the situation is where it lazily, or perhaps even mischievously, suggests that it will be the Lib Dems who will reap the benefit of Labour’s misfortune. This is to overlook the fact that the SNP won the equivalent of the East Lothian seat in the European elections and the Scottish Parliament regional vote.
 
They may be shooting from fourth but a lot has happened in these five long years, including a surprise move from former Lib Dem candidate Amy Rodger who announced that she no longer wishes to contest the seat. Clearly, in Amy’s eyes, progress was not being made despite Labour’s mounting problems.
 
However, there’s only one vote that counts and that’s on May 6th and while Labour’s problems mount up and the Moffat saga continues to unfold, opposing parties of whatever colour can only gain from it.
 
East Lothian of course is not the only Scottish seat that is still without a Labour candidate. I have lost track somewhat but I believe Airdrie & Shotts was until recently still waiting to decide to what extent it believes in the principle of All Woman Shortlists. Unlike Jack Dromey, Harriet Harman’s husband and unsurprising winner of the All Woman Shortlist contest in Birmingham Edrington, there is now no chance that a local man will win the selection contest on merit. Joanne Milligan therefore remains the favourite and, not being from the area, one has to wonder if that will hurt her chances where emotions continue to run high in what could well be a tight race. The good news for the SNP is that Sophia Coyle is running, the same candidate who amassed a 15% swing in the same area in 2007.
 
So a few outside bets for SNP gains are still out there and we have the Labour party machine to thank for them.