Home from home

*** Currently blogging at http://www.betternation.org/ ***

Thursday, April 22, 2010

2nd Leaders' Debate - How was it for you?

In many ways it is a shame that the second debate was on Sky as it will have been watched by considerably less people than the last one but it was considerably better. There was no killer blow, no clear winner but I personally thought Brown and Clegg shone and Cameron wasted another opportunity to seal the deal.

The big talking point will probably be Cameron stating unequivocally that he will keep winter fuel allowance for the elderly, free tv allowance, free bus travel (and more) and challenging Brown to denounce the Labour leaflets saying otherwise. Brown made a strong retort that he did not authorise such an approach and that if that's what the Tories believed then it should have been in their manifesto but that has unravelled now as it transpires, thanks to Alex Salmond having a hard copy, that Gordon Brown has a leaflet making such claims against the SNP in Gordon's own Fife constituency.

The next biggest issue for me was when Brown attacked Clegg over Trident, aggressively urging him to "Get real" and stating that Britain needed a nuclear deterrent with so much uncertainty in the world. A bomb that will never, ever be fired is not a deterrent and does not deserve £100bn being spent on it in my view. Cameron tried to gang up on Clegg with Brown and I daresay the honours were even. Clegg certainly didn't get an easy beat on suggesting tens of billions of savings as he did last week.

There was of course no repeat of Cameron's insistence that we need to keep nuclear weapons because "we don't know what's happening with China". It later transpired that Clegg has negotiated Trade with China while Cameron wants to point nuclear weapons at them. That's a big difference in my book.

On Afghanistan, Dave made a bit of a clanger with his opening remark: "I've been to Afghanistan four times and each time I am just blown away". I wouldn't say it was insensitive but it was certainly clumsy. On the detail there was little to separate each of the parties.

Immigration on the other hand was a hot topic and Clegg offered up a clear dividing line by stating that the Lib Dems would offer an amnesty to the near 1million illegal immigrants in the country right now. Why not bring these people into the system, have them pay tax, bring them out of any shadowy goings on they may be involved in? A bit Daily Mail perhaps but I agreed with Clegg's general thrust.

Brown didn't and nor did Cameron saying that having an amnesty for illegal immigrants would just be an advert for more to come over here. For one, that doesn't sound like Brown is backing himself to get a hold of immigration with the points system he is proposing and two, I don't think refugees in far flung countries are following the news cycle too closely here in the UK.

Clegg perhaps edged this segment with his closing line: "You can't deport 900,000 people if you don't know where they live".

On Europe, Cameron struggled awkwardly through the difficult issue although it was Clegg that made a potential gaffe by calling the Polish political party whose leader has just died "a party of nutters". Will an apology be required?

Brown provided an excellent line during the Europe segment, perhaps the best of the night, 'the Big Society at home but Little Britain abroad'. Sums up the Tories on Europe very well.

Gordon landed one of the best blows and got one of his messages in the clearest. "Clegg is a risk on defence due to Trident and Cameron is a risk to the economy". That's the last two weeks of Labour's election right there.

Overall it was a good, substantive debate. Clegg and Brown shone for me, yes Brown performed well. Cameron just doesn't have it and I fear this campaign is fading away from him.

One debate left and the Tories have it all to do.

15 comments:

Bunyan said...

A distinct lack of vision from both Cameron and Brown on foreign affairs. They both seem to think that nothing has changed over the past 30 years.

It's Brown who needs to get real on nuclear weapons. If he thinks we can afford to spend £97 billion on a nuclear comfort blanket with no military purpose, instead of funding the armed forces to address the very real threats from fundamentalism and piracy, he's living in a fantasy world. He's also fantasising if he thinks nuclear weapons will enhance our international status in any way. And the biggest fantasy of all is to expect that the public will vote for someone who wants to buy new nuclear weapons at the same time as he is proposing cuts in public services to balance the fiscal deficit.

tris said...

I didn’t see it (the Sky signal is blue screen, or blue ‘sky’, here). To be honest I wouldn’t have watched it anyway. It’s more than I can stand to listen to them for 90 minutes.

I appreciate you analysis. I watched the BBC news right after and it seems that they got equal honours from the BBC panel.

There was a fear that the Sky editorial team, overseen by Murdoch, would chose questions that favoured the Conservatives. Would you agree or disagree that it did, Jeff?

In the few clips that I saw, I caught Nick making that stupid statement. Even if it’s true he should have had more maturity than call the Polish government nutters. That’s not statesmanlike. You never know when you might need them on-side. I heard Brown accuse Cameron over the bus passes and Cameron refute it, and Brown tell fibs about not knowing anything about posters and leaflets....

It was on the BBC so I didn’t expect to see any of Brown’s real gaffs, and I didn’t. I did see Cameron looking angry on one occasion, which I’d suggest, rather like Nicks outburst over the Polish nutters, was less than we might expect from a PM. What I did see was Brown looking as pale as a ghost and smiling.... and frankly, that was worse than him actually saying anything dramatically wrong.

Jeff said...

Agree with your points Bunyan. The world is moving on and Brown & Cameron don't seem onboard.

Tris, a fair suggestion that Sky might have pushed pro-Tory questions but it didn't cross my mind once and I doubt it was the case.

On Europe and immigration Cameron was in big trouble, there really were very few remotely impressive contributions from the man but, of course, I'm biased against him.

You sum up most of the important points in your comment actually so you've got the gist of it. And yes, that horrid Brown smile was back in his opening comments. It really is awful!

Joe Bloggs said...

It's definitely a lot more amusing following the debate on twitter than watching it on telly - came across http://www.election10.net and was fascinated to see the political hacks being far more candid than they are in their articles. The politicians come across as grasping and fake, the polls as biased or bought and the general public as skeptical as ever. The spin afterwards is incredible and you even get photos from within the press room.

Fascinating stuff, the internet and reality tv have made elections so much more interesting. The only real winners are the lib dems of course as otherwise they wouldn't have the tv coverage they get and Clegg seems to be seizing his opportunity. Will we have an Obama style surge is the big question??

Allan said...

Cameron won it for me this week and Clegg tried to play the nice guy in the middle and Brown! Well he looked shabby and came across as negative as his Scottish counterpart in Holyrood.

If Nick Clegg and its a big if can win the election and become prime minister then so be it but as I said before I just want a clear winner to put 13 years of rubbish in the gutter.

The only major concern I have with all 3 main UK parties is over immigration. They keep saying non EU migrants will need to be qualified in a field of work to move to the UK yet on the other hand they say cleaners jobs etc are for UK workers?? So where does the Eastern European migrants fit into all of this?

My main concern is the overwhelming number of migrants from Poland and Romania who have come to the UK and put our local councils under severe pressure.

The UK can cope with millions of migrants but not all at the one time. Trying getting to register with an NHS dentist in Leith is terrible and everyone I speak to is saying the same thing and its because of the surge in population from migrants.

Please read what I have said before anyone brands me a racist. I'm open to migrants coming here but not all at the one time.

Cameron was right when he said immigration was not an issue before 1997.

Allan said...

As i pointed out on my blog, this has also occurred with Douglas Alexander's leaflet.

As for the debate, your synopsis is about right. I Thought that Clegg was correct in his "gaff" though, and was spot on with his policy towards the Banks and has a point with his immigration amnesty (which was originally thought up by one Ronald Regan)

Kenneth said...

Election Prediction:

Tory Majority in England.

Hung Parliament in UK.

We live in interesting times.

Anonymous said...

As for Gordon Brown’s inability to tell the truth, being exposed as a bare faced liar in such a devastating manner just moments after the debate ended can only reduce his stock still further. It was the moment of the night seeing Alex Salmond – after Brown denied he has sanctions Labour leaflets carrying false claims about Conservative policy – holding up Brown’s personal election literature as distributed in Kirkcaldy. It was a leaflet Brown had to have personally endorsed and it carried the claim Brown states he did not sanction that the Conservatives would get rid of the winter fuel allowances, free bus passes, free eye tests, etc.

Fitalass said...

Jeff, great fan of your blog but rarely post a comment.

SNP needed Labour to come first, Libdems second and Cameron and the Tories third in these Leadership debates for the sole purpose of the make up of the 20 or so seats that may or may not change hands on May 6th.

You are all swimming in the same pool of voters in the hope that they will all very neatly tactical vote in the most targeted way possible to keep the Tories out at this GE. Saw the debate and followed the political chatter. Yet to see one of the other parties say that Cameron did enough to lose where it matters most to him or his party. And that is the most telling point of all.

Cameron just needs to hold steady, but Brown, Clegg and Salmond need to do a hell of a lot more than they have done already to seal that tactical voting deal.

Stuart Dickson said...

Jeff, the full datasheets of the recent Angus Reid/Scottish Green Party poll of voting intention for the next Holyrood general election (due May 2011) are now available. (This is the poll you picked up on the Two Doctors Twitter feed. Well spotted!)

AFAIAA it is the first ever ARPO poll in Scotland, so a very welcome addition to the somewhat stale YouGov/Ipsos MORI duopoly.

Labour on only 21% (!!) on the regional vote. That is totally unprecedented. I have never seen such a low v.i. figure for Scottish Labour from a full Scottish poll for any parliament, Westminster, Holyrood or European.

"In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,001 Scottish adults, 31 per cent of decided voters and leaners would give their constituency vote to Labour. The SNP is second with 27 per cent, followed by the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Conservatives with 19 per cent each, the Scottish Greens with three per cent, and the Scottish Socialists with one per cent.

In the additional member voting category, the SNP is first with 27 per cent. Labour and the Lib-Dems are tied for second with 21 per cent, followed by the Tories with 15 per cent, the Greens with eight per cent, and the Socialists with three per cent."


http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/04/labour-has-four-point-advantage-on-governing-snp-in-scotland/

Stuart Dickson said...

Betting Summary

Looking ominous for the Scottish Tories on the betting markets:

- the best CON price in Edinburgh SW (Darling) has slipped to 3/1 (from 2/1)

- CON price has slipped badly in Edinburgh South. LD now clear FAV

- LD price in Berwickshire, Aberdeenshire W and Argyll&Bute is shortening. Seem to be slipping from reach of Tories.

- the LIB DEMS are closing in on Mundell in DCT (the best price you can get on LD in DCT is now just 4/1. You could get 28/1 last week! Hurry up, cos that 4/1 won't last long either.)

- LIB DEMS have now moved into FAV spot in Edinburgh North & Leith, at least according to Victor Chandler (the other bookies still have LAB narrowly in FAV spot), with the best CON price in that seat now lengthened to 11/1 (!!)

- SNP still in FAV spot in 8 seats (the 6 we hold, plus Ochil &SP and Dundee W), but lengthening in some other target seats (eg. LD-held Gordon and Inverness NB&S)

Anonymous said...

My points after watching. Clegg won well, he was best on all points. Brown was better than last time. Cameron was about the same. I thought he was OK last time and he did just the same this time. He is really just not that good, certainly not the man his spin says he is. Now as to the numbers that show a Cameron win(yougov)or a tie (the rest) why is that so? A number of reasons, defence unease? Europe? Yes those are the excuses people use. The real reason is race and immigration. Cameron is the most hawkish on both. Yes I know he talks a multi cultural fight a multi ethnic one too, but he acts joins and votes with racists and homophobes in the EU and comforts and shelters them in his party too. I have personal experience of this, when subjects like these are discussed we get the usual platitudes, not racist, services strained, encourage integration etc etc They are sincerely said. The monster that lurks at the heart of the issue is. "You should not be here, I do not want you here, if I had my way you not have got to be here neither would your offspring. In my dark moments I dream of rounding you up and throwing you out". This cancer lurks at the heart of the immigration issue it has always been here since the Empire Windrush arrived, the idea of it not being an issue is insultingly laughable. Michael

Anonymous said...

"it will have been watched by considerably less people than the last one"

FEWER!!!

Hamish said...

Kaminsky didn't dies in the plane crash.

Joey Grimlock said...

Nationally the SNP might be opposed to cutting concessionary travel but the SNP-led Fife Council has already done it.

Gordon Brown's constituency is in Fife.

Oops.