The sacking of the Tory candidate in North Ayrshire & Arran for writing online that homosexuality “is not normal” has resulted in the Conservatives fielding only 58 candidates in each of the 59 Scottish constituencies. Consequently, the rare prospect of three left-wing parties competing for the one seat is worthy of further scrutiny.
The 2005 result was:
Katy Clarke (Labour) – 19,417 (43.9%)
Stewart Connell (Conservative) – 8,121 (18.4%)
Tony Gurney (SNP) – 7,938 (18.0%)
George White (Lib Dem) – 7,264 (16.4%)
The 2010 candidates are: Katy Clark (Labour), Patricia Gibson (SNP), Gllian Cole-Hamilton (Lib Dems),
The relatively considerable Conservative vote is clearly what is up for grabs here given that Phillip Lardner is no longer standing and, consequently, there may be some ironic benefit in the ‘Tartan Tory’ jibe that the SNP suffers and could profit from here. Certainly, if those who favour Cameron over Brown judge that the SNP is better placed to unseat the Labour incumbent, then there could be some considerable tactical voting going on. It helps that the SNP were notionally second in this seat in 2005, now that the Tories have been discounted.
However, there is no getting away from Clegg-mania with yesterday’s poll suggesting that the Lib Dems may indeed be Scotland’s second party in Westminster voting intentions after all. Splitting the non-Labour vote in this constituency anywhere close to 50/50 will pretty much guarantee that Katy Clark is returned for another term.
The SNP’s candidate is Patricia Gibson who is the partner of popular local MSP Kenneth Gibson and consequently may well hive off some electoral goodwill from his record, over and above the contribution Patricia will make on her own merits. If the husband and wife dream team can work for the Bakers and Balls’, then it can work for the Gibsons.
However, a potential spanner in the works for the SNP charge for this seat is the new Hunterston coal power station that is being built here which has been met with furious opposition in some quarters. The plant is due to be ‘carbon capture compliant’ but that technology is unreliable (at best) so dirty coal seems to live on in Scotland irrespective of the ambitious climate change targets the Government has set. It is a potential ‘greenwash’, if you will. A convincing argument from environmental groups is that carbon capture should be tried and tested on existing coal power stations before being used as an excuse to build more of them. Further to that, there is concern that Hunterston was added to the list of fast-track projects on the National Planning Framework without proper consultation with the local community. Not the best way to lay the ground for a gain at the next election if you ask me.
So, despite the remarkable circumstances of no Tory candidate, I fear the existing majority is just too big to overhaul and I daresay the SNP would need the Lib Dem candidate to also drop out of the race to stand any real chance of winning through here.
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8 comments:
Actually I'm fairly sure that as the deadline for nominations (and withdrawal of nominations) has passed, that Lardner will still be on the ballot as a Conservative candidate - indeed, the postal ballot papers will already have been sent out and begun to be returned.
I guess that in the unlikely event that he actually won the seat he would be denied the Tory whip though.
Are you sure he's not standing? I'm pretty sure the nominations were done a week ago, meaning he will still appear on the ballot paper. Maybe the Tories have just disassociated themselves with him, but he is still technically a Conservative candidate I think.
Jeff,
Good point here. Even if we took the full Conservative vote, I doubt we would be able to win the seat. The Liberal Democrats, in reality, won't make much progress in Scotland. They may not fall back, but the SNP should surpass them quite heavily.
I have faith that they can.
Jeff,
I was just on Patricia Gibson's website, and it said that the SNP outpolled the Labour party in the Euros.
Anything could happen. We could either win the seat, take second place, slightly improve our position upon 2005 yet remain in third place, or no change.
Still, it means that anybody that votes for the eedjit gets tae had their heids high an' proclaim "Ah'm a bigot"
Anti-kudos!
He is still the Conservative candidate.
I'm afraid everyone's right, Jeff - Lardner remains on the ballot as a Conservative and Unionist candidate, despite being disowned and suspended: papers were printed last week. This was widely detailed in press and BBC reports earlier this week and you should check such detail before you post authoritative constituency profiles.
The Tory vote might fall, epecially without official support and organisation, but I'd be surprised if there was very much difference: in 1983, a Conservative candidate disowned in still more extreme circumstances (who, incredibly, had been selected before anyone learned he had twice stood for Parliament for the National Front) nevertheless still nearly beat the SDP's Ian Wrigglesworth in Stockton South: Wrigglesworth clung on by just 102 votes.
In the highly unlikely event of Lardner winning election, he would of course be denied the Conservative whip.
http://smarkets.com/politics/uk/general-election/2010/snp-seats-extended
SNP seats (extended)
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