With thanks to Stuart Dickson for giving the heads up in the comments of the last post, there is a new Scottish poll out thanks to Populus/Times. On the face of it, it looks like bad reading for the SNP with the Lib Dems overhauling them into 2nd place.
The Westminster results are:
Labour - 37% (-3%)
Lib Dem - 24% (+1%)
SNP - 19% (+2%)
Con - 16% (-)
Let's be honest, it's not great, certainly a far cry from the heady heights of last year.
In terms of seats, this would result in (change from 2005):
Labour - 38 (gain Glasgow East, gain Dunfermline & West Fife)
Lib Dem - 13 (gain Aberdeen South, gain Edinburgh South)
SNP - 7 (gain Ochil)
Con - 1
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12 comments:
Not surprised. Even the most ardent SNP supporter must admit that their campaign has not caught the imagination that "It's Time..." did.
Just come back from a hustings in Paisley town centre, and the SNP candidate (for Paisley North) did not look comfortable at all having to defend council cuts - particularaly cuts to School busses, which undermine the "Scotland's Champion's" message.
Serves the nationalist's right for wanting to stop the Scots from viewing the final, perhaps most important, debate.
It really is quite sad. Standing in 10% of the seats and demanding parity with the big three. Not to mention the legal absurdity regarding the petition to a scottish court affecting an area out of the jurisdiction of Scottish law.
Sturgeon barks on about not wanting to stop the debate, but yet your injuction wants just that.
How is that fair? Salmond demands his presence or else no debate. Pathetic.
The court will throw it out and the SNP will be a laughing stock, even more so than on may the 6th when your 3rd!!!!
I forgot m'lady's quote:
"The effect of an interim interdict as sought would have the effect of impeding information to the public at a particularly important time for civil society" -
quite.
Why are there so many Labour voters North of the border? Come on Salmond, pull something out the bag.
Alternatively, we could all try and make this go viral, might be worth a few votes. (It's legit).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjzaXqeUgpk
Its been looking this way for a week or so and will continue to do so till polling day. The SNP have been squeezed - or rather, totally shafted - like never before.
To do the best they can and hold their ground as best they can, is about as good as it gets for them in this UK election.
Post-election, the SNP need to hold their nerve and prosper from the inevitable rebound, as whatever Westminster govt takes office ... will quickly be hated through 2010 and into 2011. The IFS showed today the massive fiscal credibility gap of the (ahem) "big 3" parties.
Personal preference would be for a Lab/LibDem pact to form the UK govt. And rapidly sink neck-deep into the fiscal and cost-cutting shite. What would then be their 2011 Holyrood position ? To protect Scotland from their own UK Lab/LibDem parties at Westminster ?? That wouldn't be credible - and for even the thickest of Scots voters - and god knows there are many of them - the penny MIGHT just drop.
For the SNP, the only election that matters, begins on May 7th.
Ah well. The Holyrood YouGov was encouraging, at least.
Jeff,
I do not think that that will be the vote on the day.
Just saying..
Most movements within the margin of error; poll shows no change.
Certainly, this poll makes for depressing reading but - irrespective of the outcome of the court case on the TV debate - the SNP could get a bounce because of the attendant publicity.
All is not yet lost!
Before you all commit Hari Kari remember John Mason was 17% behind Labour in the "polls" before the Glasgow by-election.
The only poll that counts is May 6th.
Jeff,
Leave the polls.
Wait for the results on the night of May 6th. I have a slight feeling that these polls will diverge heavily from the actual result.
That being said..these polls are dissapointing.
Oh, and your 'Labour gains' are incorrect. The two seats were Labour seats in 2005.
And one last thing....
I do not believe that after our amazing progress since 2007 that we would merely go up around 2%. That is ridiculous. It is wrong.
That shall be seen on May 6th.
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