According to recent polling, 77 constituencies in England and Wales will be represented by a different political party to that after the 2005 General Election. In Scotland, that figure is zero.
A couple of polls were released north of the border last week which showed Labour holding a 10% lead over the SNP in one and a 20% lead over the SNP in the other. Translating each poll into seats remarkably gave the same breakdown – Labour 41 seats, Liberal Democrats 11 seats, SNP 6 seats and the Conservatives 1 seat. That is the same result as the 2005 General Election.
There are numerous constituencies in Scotland that have been held by the same party since the Cold War ended, several as far back as World War 2. Change came to America in 2008 with the historic Obama presidency, change is coming to the UK in 2010 with three-party politics but change, from a Westminster viewpoint, is still some way off in Scotland. Keeping in mind that Scotland sits at or near the bottom of European health, economy and crime tables, we could do with a bit of change up here.
Whether it is short shrift with new messages or long memories from old Governments, Scotland is politically stagnant in a UK-context. If a rotten borough is a constituency that has a politician too rooted in place to shift then Scotland is closing in on being a rotten nation.
Perhaps it is testament to the quality of the MPs that Scotland returns that no change is deemed necessary. We do after all have a Scottish Prime Minister, a Scottish First Minister, a Scottish Chancellor, two Head of Campaigns for this General Election and two former leaders of the Liberal Democrats amongst our 59 MPs. Cream rises to the top they say and Scottish cream seems to be well and truly in season.
So if it’s not broke then why fix it? Well, Politics is broke. Turnout decreases decade after decade, cynicism and apathy are at an all time low and the expenses debacle has left an ugly stain on Westminster’s reputation with politicians north of the border not escaping the public disdain.
At a UK level, the fact that Labour could finish 3rd nationally but still ‘win’ the election while the Lib Dems could score the highest vote share but return less than 100 MPs proves that the system needs to be changed. At a Scottish level, the situation is arguably more critical.
Half of the seats north of the border can be ticked off as Labour holds already. That’s more than half of the available 59 seats and taking into account the SNP and Liberal Democrat seats that to all intents and purposes are unchallengeable, that is upwards of 2 million Scottish adults who are effectively disenfranchised.
Sharing islands with 60million people means that no one person gets to have the casting vote but when the General Election comes around (an event which may only occur twice a decade) it is important that everyone feels like they are involved in the process. Nick Clegg may be singlehandedly blowing a breath fresh of air through this campaign but those winds of change aren’t yet reaching north of the border.
Five years that included the Iraq War enquiry, the 10p tax debacle, the expenses scandal, a seismic transformation of the Conservative party, the first SNP Government at the Scottish Parliament and the acceptance of Climate Change as the greatest threat to our planet in this generation and we still have the same party breakdown representing our nation? That doesn’t pass the sniff test I’m afraid.
From this Scottish beggar I plead with those down South, if you can spare any change then please help us out.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
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21 comments:
An outstanding post Jeff. Trouble is it relies on the English and it can only be the English playing ball and delivering electoral reform. A Cameron government may have the same effect however but by a different route. Cameron for an independent Scotland anyone? Will Holyrood be a real alternative power base? Will anything change at all? Don't count on it by default.Michael
to much time in London mate !
you're a lost cause .
Best CON price in East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy’s seat) shortens to 10/11. Simultaneously, 2 bookies (ToteSport and Victor Chandler) lengthen their LAB prices.
Con 10/11 SkyBet, Victor Chandler
Lab 6/5 SportingBet
SNP 50/1 various
LD 66/1 SkyBet
UKIP 100/1 Ladbrokes
Looking ominous for Iain Gray. Murphy will be after his job if he loses his Westminster seat. Very hard to see him not getting it after Gray's dire performance.
Many thanks to Peter Kellner for publishing the detailed datasheets from Thursday's Scottish Sun poll.
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 36% (-4)
LD 23% (n/c)
SNP 23% (+5)
Con 14% (-2)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)
UKIP 1% (+1)
oth 1%
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Scottish-Sun-28.04.pdf
Anonymous commenters get ma goat. Whit they say might get ma goat as well, but ah niver bother readin' them tae find oot.
Ah'm already steelin' masel Jeff, fer a night o' unbridled disappointment. In a funny way, ah sometimes couldnae care less wha wins a seat, just sae long as it's a change. At least ye could then say folk were thinkin' an' payin' attention.
This way ye hae tae wonder if it wis worth aw the bother.
Thanks Michael, and fine points. Not long to go till we find out what happens I suppose and what Scotland's reaction will be. Looks like a Tory govt to me though.
Thanks Sophia,
I don't mind Anonymous commenters having their say and "lost cause" accusations (whatever that means) are water off a duck's back, particularly when I'm enjoying sitting in a (albeit rainy) Munich beer garden as I am now.
Which explains the general lack of blog and comment action here of late.
Jeff,
Just to let you know that the Conservatives are predicted by Electoral Calculus to be very close to an overall majority - the deficit having been cut by 75% within several days, now standing at -9.
As for Scotland, I know not how it will end up. If your news on postal votes for the SNP holds up across the 59 constituencies, we could see a big increase in our vote. I would not trust Scottish polls due to the very latent bias we SNP supporters get in these polls.
I think all of what you have said is reflected on the amount of time the party leaders have spent in Scotland during the campaign (obviously excluding Salmond).
Fiona
Just back from The Festival Theatre having got my audience ticket last Friday :-) Be interesting to see how it sounds on the box, but from the middle of the stalls, I scored it Salmond, Carmichael, Murphy then Mundell. Carmichael slightly less effective than last week and Mundell trailing way way back in 4th ... often generating mockery from most of the audience it seemed to me.
Expenses reared its head again - Campbell went off on one with Salmond - the £400 quid food, then the resettelment grant (twice). To be fair to Glenda he then brought up Mundells £3000 photos - and then Spuds house flipping - which Spud called "an accusation". But like I say, for once Glenda was alomost even handed - maybe it was £50K well spent after all !
Judge for yourselves later, but Alex Salmond stepped up a notch from the last week and was a clear winner on the day. No one can touch him on that form...
Thanks for the precious preview Vivas, I did spot a bombastic press release from the SNP centred on Murphy's flippery.
I'll be catching it on the i-player tomo but for once I'm glad to know the result in advance!
To be honest Jeff, and knowing Glenda as we do, I didn't expect him to be even-handed in putting Spud on the spot. Glenda asked him if his main home was in East Renfrewshire or London (the preamble in to the flipping question)
Spud made a bit of a hash of it and you'll hear mockery from the audience. Although there was the same kind of audience reponse to Alexs grub and Mundell's photos. Maybe a score draw on the that one all round. What was funny though was Spuds usual faux taking-offence routine to what he called "an accusation".
I'm sure Glenda and Spud will make it up though before we next see that wacky double-act of theirs ;-)
Airdrie, Labour since 1945.
Our new PATSy will be sucking on the public teat for 40 years with little to trouble her if previous form continues.
Meanwhile the area wins awards for obesity and design plooks.
Labour’s Jim Murphy has described the audience who posed questions to him and other politicians in a live TV leaders debate has having been ‘dragged out the pub’.
Vivas I just watched the TV debate and I was incandescent with Glenn over his questions about Eck's food claims until it slowly dawned on me that he was planning to go for Murphy in due course.
Murphy was not happy with Glenn's line of questioning at all.
To be honest I've heard so many election soundbites by now I could probably go up on a platform and do each man's piece for them without a script!
I'd have tospeak veee--rrry, veee---rrry sloooowly to be Carmichael though.
Salmond easily the best of the 4 but Murphy's troops were predictably loud. Mundell's butler did a good job of sounding like a (very)small crowd.
Vivas I just watched the TV debate and I was incandescent with Glenn over his questions about Eck's food claims until it slowly dawned on me that he was planning to go for Murphy in due course.
Murphy was not happy with Glenn's line of questioning at all.
To be honest I've heard so many election soundbites by now I could probably go up on a platform and do each man's piece for them without a script!
I'd have tospeak veee--rrry, veee---rrry sloooowly to be Carmichael though.
Salmond easily the best of the 4 but Murphy's troops were predictably loud. Mundell's butler did a good job of sounding like a (very)small crowd.
Just finished watching the debate...
What a performance from Salmond!
Statesmanlike in his delivery, he destroyed the Unionist opposition with every one of his arguments.
I felt very proud watching it.
Also...
I never thought I would say this but Glen Campbell was excellent throughout the debate.
Great post
But I have to disagree with you on one point.
I don't believe that anyone is disenfranchised at this election.
Nick Clegg has said he won't back the third party in the proportional vote to provide the PM even if it has the most seats.
His decision to interpret the result from a FPTP system as though it were PR means that no matter how safe your seat is, your vote counts because it affects the popular vote.
I don't agree with Nick's approach because it ignores tactical voting, saturation of vote in safe seats and the fact that people vote differently in different systems. But he hasn't replied to any of my messages.
I wrote more about this here: http://forgelindin.wordpress.com/2010/04/29/suddenly-your-vote-matters/
I too have just finished watching it.
Frankly it was a lot better for, at least, pretending to be a hustings. The silence of the audience - in the leadership debates - was, imho, a sanitisation too far... In fact it pretended that the politicians are better than the people. I hope and expect that that ought to change....
I think Salmond won it by a country mile, but whether that matters remains to be seen.
It has been quite odd, reading around sites like PB and so forth that some actually admire the man!
Don't think it was a game changer though, sadly.
I remember during a local government by election going from door to door speaking with the locals in what was a traditional Labour stronghold. I had naively believed that I would be able through the persuasiveness of my argument to get these traditional Labour supporters to change their voting preferences. Yet, despite the several losses via cutbacks from the local Labour council there was an attitude of “I’ve always voted Labour son” or “My father would turn in his grave if I voted for anyone else”. I despair for these constituencies which have an average life expectancy of 52 and who have returned a Labour MP since WWII – in most cases the MP lives in sheer luxury, far removed from the working class platitudes they pontificate when talking to the Scottish public. Great site by the way!
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