So the numbers are in and we now know what the impact of yesterday’s budget will be in Scotland. Those who are adverse to ~£5bn cuts should look away now.
Yes, the block grant to Scotland will fall by £4.8bn by 2014/15, once the delayed ~£300m cut from last year is taken into account. This is estimated to be around 16% of the Scottish budget and will ensure many a late night for John Swinney as he tries to balance the books while minimising job losses not just for next year but the years beyond, though of course that task may fall to a Finance Secretary from another party after May 2011.
The worrying aspect of this situation that we find ourselves in is that, depending on your geography and partisan outlook, you could paint these cuts as Tory/Lib Dem cuts, SNP cuts or Labour cuts and winning the public round to your particular point of view on that score may be the extent of some politicians’ efforts.
Tory/Lib Dem cuts because, of course, they came from a George Osborne budget backed by Chief Treasurer Danny Alexander and the Lib/Con coalition at large.
SNP cuts because the decision over where this £4.8bn axe will fall is up to the Scottish Government.
Labour cuts because it was over the past 13 years that the monstrous ~£155bn deficit was built up.
It’s pretty clear what is coming then, a heck of a lot of finger-pointing and not very much progress in a Battle Royale blame game.
As Scottish Secretary Michael Moore puts it: “Doing nothing in the face of a £155bn deficit is simply not an option. We have to stop spending money that we don’t have.” A welcome and clear communication from Scotland’s man at Westminster if you ask me.
So all parties at Holyrood need to get real and start coming up with specific ideas on where savings can be made. Maybe Scottish Water does need to be sold off? Maybe the £2bn Forth Road Crossing doesn’t need to be built? Maybe an asset sell-off is required? Maybe we should sell-and-leaseback the Holyrood building? A culture of no idea being too ridiculous needs to be fostered and parties should resist the temptation of tearing strips off a rival for no constructive gain. The public and media at large can play a part too by responding, at the ballot box or otherwise, to positivity rather than negativity.
It won’t be easy and it’s difficult to admit but Scotland is sinking, sinking from a general lack of entrepreneurship and from existing companies having to scrap tooth and nail with the dwindling number of Scottish bank managers to secure existing and/or extra funding to keep their going concerns going.
Personally, I think pensions and salaries hold the key to Scotland getting through this. There are fair pensions and then there are ludicrously over-the-top pensions. There must be a line that can be redrawn whereby the former are left untouched and the latter have their agreements ripped up in the interests of fairness. Private personal pensions are one thing but civil servants near-bankrupting a nation just to live a life of luxury has to end. No more golden hellos, no more golden goodbyes and no more pension pots that would make a Sultan blush. I maintain that an equal pension for public servants whether they clean the streets or run a Government department is an excellent solution, a solution that is already in practise in many Scandinavian businesses.
Further to this, (while I’m on this pedestal I might aswell use it!), I reckon Scots need to strongly consider buying Scottish. The pride in local produce down here in the South is palpably stronger than up North. It goes beyond Kent strawberries, Cornish cream, South Downs lamb and has extended to Londoners eschewing the Marlboroughs and the Chablis to buy English wine. English wine! Who’d have thought it, but that’s the spirit that can turn a local economy around. It’s not necessarily protectionism, we’ll still lap up as much Made in China clothing and Made in America fast-food as before but local areas have to box a little bit smarter by linking up the state of their local economies with local decisions made by local people.
I was going to say that, with the right approach and a fair deal for all, Scotland could be a well-oiled machine but when working together rather than against each other is the necessary call, it is probably best to leave ‘oil’ out of it, for now.
So all in all, a tough job for John Swinney and although the Finance Secretary is more than up to the task, I just hope that all parties step up to the plate in this coming election year and don’t lose sight of the big picture amongst the tribalism and lowest-common-denominator politics that can so often be on show in our youthful Parliament.
9 comments:
J,
Selling off Scottish Water would be madness, a very short term approach to our future.
CD
Jeff
Once more you appear to be susceptible to unionist propaganda.
Today's GERS figures show clearly that, whilst the UK's finances are a mess thanks to Labour mismanagement, Scotland is financially healthier than the UK on every measure.
How about a post on that?
CC
Crazy Daisy
Yes, probably to a foreign company and losing control of a VALUABLE asset--water!
Imagine our rain being foreign-owned.....
We need to look beyond the Scottish budget to the wider effects of the cuts to come. Look out for, the carrier contracts to be cancelled, the carrier escorts cancelled, Fort George closed, Kinloss closed/mothballed and or Lossiemouth closed/mothballed. A freeze on civil service jobs indefinitely. Failure of bank lending to the private sector will deepen the crisis. Unemployment will rise and we face a double dip recession. Things really are bleak, the sun is shining England are winning (congrats to them by the way) and people are not yet furious, but they will be, oh boy they will be. Michael
I agree that selling Scottish Water is far from ideal but it's still probably worth looking at nonetheless. If it's between that or laying off 1,000 people... I don't know, these are the tough calls that lie ahead in a (hopefully) rationale discussion I suppose.
The next budget debate will be a doozy though. You saw how mental folk went over GARL? Multiply it by ten I reckon.
Not read the GERS CC, seeing as the data came out yesterday. Good to hear Scotland's doing better than the news/BBC (unionist propagandists I presume) have reported.
The knock on effect of privatising Scottish water will be higher costs to business.
During a recession, that would be extremely silly.
The worrying aspect of this situation that we find ourselves in is that, depending on your geography and partisan outlook, you could paint these cuts as Tory/Lib Dem cuts, SNP cuts or Labour cuts and winning the public round to your particular point of view on that score may be the extent of some politicians’ efforts.
Devolution: it's always someone else's fault.
It would be daft to look at this solely in the short term. Yes, we could sell off Scottish Water but who's to say we won't end up having to bale it out again as happened in Wales?
Let's wait and see what the independent budget review comes up with next month and what COSLA come up with.
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