It seems like a long time since the last one but a decent poll has been released from TNS-BRMB via The Herald. Figures are:
Holyrood Constituency
Lab - 46%
SNP - 32%
LD - 11%
Con - 10%
Holyrood region
Lab - 42%
SNP - 30%
LD - 12%
Con - 11%
Green - ?
The numbers speak for themselves really but I had personally thought that the Scottish Tories were at their floor limit before and there is enough right-wingery north of the border to keep the blues out of single digits. Apparently not and Goldie's considerable woes grow bigger still.
The Lib Dems are there, but not much more significant than that, not that a lacklustre showing will stop them picking up their second coalition in the space of a year.
Labour's lead over the SNP is to be expected too though I would expect the gap to close as the election date nears, as it did for Brown and McConnell.
The female vote does seem to be a particular problem for the Nats, as mentioned in the article and last week at Lalland's Peat Worrier. However, the battle between Sturgeon's burgeoning prominence, Gray's charisma (or lack of therein), Salmond's considerable contribution, Baker as Justice Secretary in-waiting and the last four years, all things considered, is just getting going.
Poll to poll, the adventure won't be without many a twist and turn.
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5 comments:
Interesting numbers, although a possible explanation for the Labour lead could be the media's refusal to pursue damaging Labour stories.
The worst by far should have hit the headlines today.
http://newsnetscotland.com
Everyone bar The Sunday Post has suppressed this.
I don't buy the paper, which has descended into the realms of parochial tabloid journalism, so I have to ask if there was a poll of "Satisfaction with Party Leaders".
It's one thing saying "Labour" when asked how you would vote, but it's a quite different matter when you are being asked to compare Gray with Salmond for example. Last time there was any kind of poll on leaders, Gray was almost non-existent to a huge majority of people. Nothing's changed I imagine.
Looks like we're heading for a May 2011 election where Labour will become the biggest Party despite many Labour voters not knowing who the Labour Leader is. Talk about putting red rosettes on donkeys....
BBC Scotland running polar bear is weighed story on front.
Tip: if animals are on BBC Scotland, you know there's a juicy Labour story they haven't bothered to reported.
At first glance, these figures look pretty grim and depressing for any SNP supporter, but they do show the party at virtually the same level of support as the 2007 election which they won.
It's interesting to note that while the SNP have always had difficulties getting votes from Labour voters, the opposite is now also becoming apparent - that Labour are having real problems making inroads into the SNP vote.
The SNP support is holding up well despite all the daily nat-bashing propaganda we now see on the BBC and in the newspapers. The Karen Whitefield and Duncan McNeil stories have been suppressed by a unionist media who for reasons of their own self-preservation will stop at nothing to get the SNP voted out of office next May.
Complacency is beginning to set in in the Labour camp, as demonstrated with Iain Gray's recent interview with the Press & Journal.
The real battleground will be over the floating voter and the disillusioned Lib Dem voters, who there will probably be quite a fair number of by next May.
As long as the SNP remain on positive ground and don't get sucked into indulging in the counter-productive negative campaigning that Labour in Scotland are experts at (after all it's going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible to convert die-hard Labour voters) then I'm sure we will see the floating voters and disillusioned Lib Dems making their choice for the party that has the positive, optimistic view of Scotland's future, rather than the rather bitter, cynical brand of politics we see from Iain Gray and his colleagues which is against so much but for virtually nothing.
I think the issue is more why the SNP are ahead in men? And to be frank it's fitba. Men get dosed in nationalism, some might say overdosed, there's no many wummin in the Tartan Army!
I also think that men are a bit more inclined to dream of the future, whereas women are more concerned with the state of the school and the cost of living. Of course, that is a gross exaggeration.
Having nice women on TV to represent the SNP will help, and dosing down the bravehearts would help too. But in reality the bread and butter of how the SNP would make the schools better or how independence would be fairer and could be achieved would make a difference.
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