Comments on SNP Tactical Voting: SNP surge forwards in latest poll

So we can look forward to a SNP/Labour coalition i...

2010-08-25T14:10:05.982+01:00

So we can look forward to a SNP/Labour coalition in the interests of the country?

Well its worth pointing out that one of these poll...

2010-08-24T21:15:09.196+01:00

Well its worth pointing out that one of these polls was commissioned by the SNP. While no pollster would risk its reputation by rigging a poll, the commissioner can ask certain questions that lead. As any one who grew up watching yes minister will know.

Its also worth remembering that opinion polls did incredibly badly at the election (exit polls excepted), and from what I gather, the various pollsters are playing about with their weightings as a result. So the Labour lead could be a rogue, or the latest two a rogue, etc etc. Pick a poll you like, and back it.

And, as Indy says, public opinion is bouncing around like a yo-yo just now. Labour's leadership election is beginning to get some coverage, so its possible the public have remembered Ed Balls, or listened to the milibrothers.

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk...

2010-08-24T14:44:50.279+01:00

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-SNP-230810.pdf

UK Polling Report has the Ipsos MORI figures for W...

2010-08-23T21:24:14.645+01:00

UK Polling Report has the Ipsos MORI figures for Westminister and Holyrood Constituency/Regional breakdrown.

I think things are just re-aligning post Westminst...

2010-08-23T15:40:58.544+01:00

I think things are just re-aligning post Westminster.

Labour benefitted hugely from the "stop the Tories getting back in" factor.

It takes a while for voters to get out of one mode of thinking and into another but my experience is that people are starting to get their heads round the Scottish election now.

Jeff What may have made a difference over the las...

2010-08-23T13:51:25.976+01:00

Jeff

What may have made a difference over the last month with these polls is the Labour campaign to increase the council tax.

Everyone and his brother in Labour has said the council tax freeze should be scrapped.

So vote Labour and your council tax will increase substantially, but by the way we still want the council tax freeze subsidy so our Labour councils can still spend your money.

Turkeys and Christmas?

I think the polls have shifted because people were...

2010-08-22T20:42:12.936+01:00

I think the polls have shifted because people were wakening up to the real prospect that Iain Grey could be First Minister.

Also I think the blame everything on the SNP by Labour is washing a little thin now. Labour did well in the UK election in Scotland but so did the SNP and Libs. Every Lib,SNP and Labour held seat all showed an increase for the sitting MP. People stuck to the party which was best placed to win to keep the Tories out, it was nothing to do with what a great PM Brown thought he was.

Jeff A week is a long time in politics. Below is...

2010-08-22T20:25:48.913+01:00

Jeff

A week is a long time in politics.

Below is a link to a Scottish News of The World article today warning Labour not to get too complacent about their 14% lead over the SNP for the Holyrood election.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/scottish/euan_mccolm/916922/Majority-of-Labour-individuals-presume-they-will-win-election.html

Also, that Foulkes gag was tremendous. (Or I thoug...

2010-08-22T18:25:20.166+01:00

Also, that Foulkes gag was tremendous. (Or I thought so in the 40deg heat at least)

Well spotted Anon. No idea if it had a Const/Regio...

2010-08-22T18:24:00.314+01:00

Well spotted Anon. No idea if it had a Const/Region differential built in nor, more importantly, why not if not.

Maybe YouGov will release detail this week which can be pored over.

Andrew BOD, it would be wrong to jump to the concl...

2010-08-22T17:37:07.685+01:00

Andrew BOD, it would be wrong to jump to the conclusion that anything has fundamentally changed - it may just be methodological differences between the pollsters. On recent form I'd certainly be more inclined to trust YouGov than TNS or Mori, so it's encouraging that the YouGov figures are the best of the lot.

Is this a proper constituency/region poll or just ...

2010-08-22T17:08:59.777+01:00

Is this a proper constituency/region poll or just a general party support one? Anyway to turn this into predicted seats?

Yep, there being 2 polls definitely gives one extr...

2010-08-22T17:03:03.540+01:00

Yep, there being 2 polls definitely gives one extra confidence Andrew. And they're both 1,000+ polls, not subsamples. I got the figures from the SNP website, for some reason I can't link to it as my phone's playing up.

It might be the heat... I'm in the rainforest biome at the Eden Project!

Jeff Were these full polls of 1000+ or are they t...

2010-08-22T16:54:04.302+01:00

Jeff

Were these full polls of 1000+ or are they the smaller samples from the main poll?

While these are encouraging I think it is so far ahead of the election that these polls will change often between now and then.

The biggest factor may be the closer scrutiny that Gray will come under as the election nears.

Jeff One poll with these results would have appea...

2010-08-22T16:49:00.963+01:00

Jeff

One poll with these results would have appeared strange, but two means that the figures are much more reliable. To me, it would be interesting to know what has made the difference in the last month.

There has been little politics in the media except for Megrahi. Whether you disagree or agree with the decision, there may be a perception that Scottish Labour politicians have been pandering to the calls from the US Senate. And that, as we all know, is truly unpopular among Scots, and probably amongst all UK citizens.

It might not be any of that. In fact it may be that last month's poll was the one that was questionable!

I didn't think Foulkes giving up his seat woul...

2010-08-22T16:13:50.024+01:00

I didn't think Foulkes giving up his seat would have that impact.